A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 1-0 loss in Nashville Saturday evening

Last night in Nashville, the Red Wings fell 1-0 at the hands of the NHL's hottest team.  With the win yesterday, the Predators now have points in 17 straight games.  However, despite coming away from the evening pointless themselves, it was hardly a woeful performance from the Red Wings.  Instead, it was a tight-checking, playoff-style game in which Detroit came up just short.  Nonetheless, the stellar performance from Alex Lyon in goal provided a silver lining as the Red Wings push toward the regular season's finish line with aspirations of continuing past game 82.  For a clearer sense of how the game payed out, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.

The Big Picture

-By all situations expected goals per MoneyPuck.com, the Preds edged their guests 2.57-2.42 last night.  Nashville was the better team in the scoreless first period, earning a 1.312-0.633 edge by xG.  Detroit's best hockey came in the second, during which it played to a 63.51% xG share at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.  The Red Wings weren't able to create much of anything in the third (until a desperate push in the last minute or two of play, already trailing), and the Predators took advantage of a rare defensive miscue on the evening to score the game-winner.

-At five-on-five, per NST, the Red Wings earned a 40.23% CorsiFor, a 39.53% share of scoring chances, a 53.85% share of high-danger chances, and a 44.89% share of xG.  In broad strokes, Nashville enjoyed a greater volume of offense, while Detroit earned higher quality chances over the course of the game, as you can see in the below heat map of unblocked five-on-five shots.

-Neither power play found the back of the net yesterday, but the Red Wings had three opportunities compared to just one for Nashville.  That's something of a missed opportunity in a one-goal, low-scoring affair.

Individual Impacts

-The Red Wings' top line was its most impactful at five-on-five.  David Perron, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond played 10:08 together at five-a-side, earning an 0.255-0.236 edge in xG.  Perron led the team in individual xG at 0.81.  For the evening, seven Red Wings finished with a five-on-five on-ice xG share greater than 50%, and all three of Perron, Larkin, and Raymond were among that number.  This wasn't a dominant night for this trio, but it was a good one, or at the very least a steady one.

Detroit's second line of Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane played 10:05 at five-on-five to the tune of an 0.216-0.383 disadvantage in xG.  That low volume of offense is a bit concerning.  DeBrincat hasn't scored a goal since February 27th against Washington, and it feels as though one of the Red Wings' biggest priorities down the stretch has to be finding a way to reignite his finishing touch.  The question is how best to go about that.  Should he remain with Kane at five-on-five?  Should either or both join Larkin, where they've enjoyed success earlier in the season?  Both possibilities will merit consideration until his slump breaks.

Last night was a difficult one for Detroit's third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer.  In 9:26 together at five-on-five, they were out-chanced 0.386-0.663 by xG and surrendered the game's lone goal.  Given that unit's consistency since being reunited, one tough performance is hardly cause for major concern.

The 42 second disparity in usage between the Red Wings' top three lines is noteworthy.  It feels like a reminder of the style of game Detroit wants (and needs) to find success, with depth affording solidity up and down the lineup.  That didn't result in two points last night in Nashville, but it's a commendable effort nonetheless.

-On the back end, Moritz Seider's most notable moment came in the form of his first career fight, taking on Filip Forsberg, but he was excellent between the whistles as well.  His pairing with Ben Chiarot played 11:32, earning a commanding 0.504-0.292 advantage in xG.  Chiarot and Seider's success together raises questions about whether they ought to remain together once Jake Walman returns to health.

Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry struggled last night, playing 10:24 together at five-on-five and getting thoroughly out-chanced 0.036-0.507 by xG.  Clearly, there were some growing pains last night for Edvinsson, who finished with a game-low 14.94% five-on-five on-ice xG share.  That doesn't mean Edvinsson has been terrible, but it's a reminder of the difficulty of finding your legs as a young defenseman at the NHL level.

-Finally, the best news to come out of last night's game was Alex Lyon's performance in net.  He made 31 of 32 saves and could hardly be blamed for the lone goal against.  Per MoneyPuck, he finished the night with 1.57 Goals Saved Above Expected.  Larkin's return from injury provided a major boost to the Red Wings' playoff aspirations, but Lyon's return to form, if he can maintain last night's level, would be just as important for Detroit.

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