A statistical review of the Red Wings' 5-4 overtime win against the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a look at the top line's offensive dominance, the success of a new checking line and the breakout game of rookie Simon Edvinsson

Through will and a little bit of luck, the Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday to keep their playoff hopes alive. It was a game of three distinct parts, the first where they led 4-1, the second when they blew the advantage by the end of the second period, And in the third period, they locked the game down defensively in pursuit of a win.

Now, they sit tied with Washington and Philadelphia for the final wild card spot, with the second highest playoff odds (26.2%) of the remaining field and the highest projected points (89.1) to end the season a projected by Moneypuck.

Here’s how Detroit kept its playoff hopes alive:

The Big Picture

I said that this game was one of three parts, and the run of play shows what I mean. The Red Wings and Maple Leafs both came out firing to start the game, but Detroit found a way to ride its momentum in the final five minutes of the period and really open things up. That’s when a power play goal by Alex DeBrincat and a David Perron wrister made the score 4-1 heading into the intermission. At this point, Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov had allowed 2.685 goals above expected, aiding the Red Wings’ big lead. Detroit scored its four goals in a little under 10 minutes. It also finished the period with a 60.87% Corsi, continuing a trend of strong starts in recent weeks.

But that big lead didn’t last, and the Maple Leafs roared back with their depth and their power play. Toronto third-liner Nick Robertson scored from the left circle to cut the lead to two goals,. Then, Patrick Kane took a four-minute double minor that led to an Auston Matthews power play goal (his 69th of the season). A John Tavares goal later and the lead was kaput. Before that power play, the Red Wings had an 18-8 advantage in shots on goal, but the Maple Leafs ended the period ahead 20-19. Their shots were also a little better quality, leading to a 1.89 to 1.608 advantage in expected goals.

The third period was the most even between the two teams, and although Toronto kept ahead in expected goals and shot attempts, Detroit put on a much more resilient effort against the Maple Leafs’ attempts. It took a late power play — killed by the Red Wings to force overtime — for Toronto to truly pull away with its abundance of attempts, but Detroit goaltender James Reimer stood tall to force free hockey. In the end, the Maple Leafs finished with a 3.39 to 2.92 edge in expected goals with the majority of their chances coming in the second half of regulation.

In terms of shot location, this game reads like a playoff hockey textbook. Both teams defended the slot and the net front well at even strength, limiting shot attempts there. But on special teams, both teams’ efforts were enough to make a coach tear their hair out — especially for Detroit. The penalty kill allowed the majority of shots within a few feet of Reimer’s net, leading to Matthews’ power play goal. It also allowed a William Nylander goal from further out.

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Individual Impacts

The first line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond continued to excel offensively after their reunion against Pittsburgh. They led the Red Wings with 0.52 expected goals off 16 shot attempts, the highest volume from Detroit’s lineup. DeBrincat scored two goals — he previously had one in 20 game — one of which came from this line on a two-on-one with Raymond. The other came from the second power play unit. Larkin, too, scored a goal, but he was on his lonesome with different linemates due to the funky 4-on-3 advantage of overtime. Putting three of its biggest offensive presences together is a risk for Detroit, but the risk met its reward in Toronto.

The second line of David Perron, J.T. Compher and Patrick Kane finished their second game in a row with a negative expected goals share (31.1%), but they led to two goals scored for Detroit. While this line might give up high quality chances the other way, it makes good on its own chances like it did Saturday night.

Finally, Derek Lalonde seems to have found a checking line in the absence of Michael Rasmussen and Andrew Copp. With Christian Fischer moved to the third line with Joe Veleno and Robby Fabbri, this line split even strength assignments against Auston Matthews this game, with each line facing the Maple Leafs’ top unit for about seven minutes. This checking third line excelled, controlling just a 16.7% share of Corsi and yet a 61.5% share of goals. Essentially, they gave up more shot attempts, but they were lower-percentage looks. That’s about all you can ask for from a unit facing a line like Matthews’ group.

This game also saw a breakthrough for the blue line. Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry played the most minutes even strength 17:03, leading to Edvinsson’s first career goal in the process. Their 66.1% share of expected goals was the highest margin of any pairing on either team that played more than five minutes together. This game also marked the second time in a row that Edvinsson has led the team in blocked shots, with seven this game.

This took a big burden off of Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider, who faced much tougher competition against the Maple Leafs’ top line. And when the pairing wasn’t shadowing Matthews, it saw heavy usage against a stacked line of Mitch Marner, Tavares and Nylander. Edvinsson and Petry had to shoulder more minutes this game because any more on Chiarot and Seider’s plate would’ve been overwhelming. A goal went each way against this pairing, breaking even in the game.

In net, Reimer played well in his 500th career game. Despite allowing four goals (a negligible -0.61 above expected), Reimer came up with numerous stops in the final minutes of the game to prevent a loss. Facing 13 medium- and high-danger shot attempts, he allowed just one medium-danger goal against.

The Red Wings didn’t play a perfect game — in fact, this was a volatile one — but they got the win they needed. They continue to survive into the playoff race’s 81st game, the deepest they’ve been since 2016. If they can bring more consistency to their play inside of games, that bodes well for their ability to win the next two games against Montreal and potentially make the playoffs.

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