Red Wings-Maple Leafs lineups and where to watch, plus notes on Detroit’s playoff odds, Alex DeBrincat’s playmaking and Auston Matthews’ race for 70 goals.

The Detroit Red Wings’ playoff hopes continue to come down to the next game. Win against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonght and they might pull ahead of the three other teams they’re within a point of. Lose and they’re out of the playoff picture. The margin for error is razor thin; mistakes cannot be afforded.

That’s a lot of pressure for anyone to handle, but the Red Wings face it tonight under the hockey microscope of playing in Toronto. It’s a high-stakes game, one that they

“There’s a path,” Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin said Thursday. “... We gotta get two points. We gotta go into Toronto and get two points. I don’t think there’s a better place to do it on a Saturday night, and they’re gonna be gunning for us after what (happened) the last time we were in there.”

‘Last time’ was a 4-2 comeback win on Jan. 14, paced by a three-goal third period. In the middle of Detroit’s red-hot January — a 9-2-2 record that month — that game is a far cry from where the Red Wings have been lately. They’re 5-12-3 in the past 20 games, leaving points on the table that could’ve made this playoff hunt easier.

“It’s playoff mode. You win one, you’re top of the world. You lose one you’re rock bottom,” Larkin said. “It’s just the way it goes and like I keep saying, we keep picking ourselves up and playing hard, and that’s what we’re gonna have to do to the end and just stay right there. We’re right there — we just gotta stick in it and find a way to get two points.”

To get two points, his Red Wings will need to play strong against a Maple Leafs team that’s not resting much ahead of the playoffs. On the biggest stage in the league, they have the chance to keep their playoff hopes. If they lose, it’s all over.

The Lineup
Detroit’s lineup is significantly hampered by the Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen injuries, who won’t be back for this game against the Maple Leafs. Last game, the Red Wings leaned heavily on the top six at even strength, and they’ll likely do the same against the Maple Leafs.

Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde isn’t changing the top six for this game, but he is flipping Christian Fischer and Daniel Sprong in the bottom six. Lalonde is also starting James Reimer in net for the netminder’s 500th career game. That ties him with Jeff Hackett for 79th most of all time.

Note: This article was updated to correct information about Detroit's bottom six lineup changes

Reimer hasn’t played since a 4-0 loss to Carolina, but before that he had won three straight of his starts as the Red Wings crawled back into the playoff race following a seven-game losing streak. Reimer was formerly a Maple Leaf, drafted by them 99th overall in the 2006 draft. He came into the league in 2010 and stayed with Toronto until being traded to San Jose in 2016.

Perhaps Reimer can spark some of the mojo that players find against their former teams, though it’s been eight years and five teams since Reimer played for the Maple Leafs. At the very least, he’s a change from Alex Lyon, who struggled against the Penguins against a barrage of transition opportunities.

The Maple Leafs’ lineup is largely the same, without stars resting for the playoffs. They need one more win to clinch third in the Atlantic Division, so this game also means something to them.

Toronto is starting Ilya Samsonov, the most utilized goalie in its tandem even if his statistics aren’t premier. Samsonov checks in at a 3.08 goals against average and a .891 save percentage, but goal support has helped him to a 23-7-7 record as a starter.

Alex DeBrincat Showing Playmaking Skill
Alex DeBrincat is supposed to be the Red Wings’ scorer. He’s supposed to have 40 goals, supposed to be their go-to stick for offense. Yet with one goal in the past 20 games, DeBrincat is on a cold streak when the Red Wings have needed him most.

Thursday against Pittsburgh, DeBrincat found his stick a different way — a playmaker’s stick, setting up three goals on the night. The first might’ve been more on his cold streak than his offensive vision, as Lucas Raymond banged home a rebound off a missed DeBrincat snipe. But the second assist came off a give-and-go with Raymond and the third assist came when he quickly dug the puck off the boards to spring Larkin and Raymond in transition for the game-tying goal.

DeBrincat might be suffering from a massive slump, but he can still be effective if he can facilitate his teammates’ success. Before Thursday, he had six assists in the past 20 games, despite playing with Patrick Kane who he has good chemistry with. Scoring through his teammates is a must to stay effective, and DeBrincat made good progress with his performance against the Penguins.

Auston Matthews Nearing 70 Goals
The Red Wings might be racing for their playoff lives, but Auston Matthews is racing for something a little more fun. He’s chasing 70 goals for the first time since 1993 when the Jets’ Teemu Selanne (a rookie) and the Sabres’ Alexander Mogilny hit the mark.

A week or so ago, the 70-mark seemed ambitious when Matthews broke 60 against Buffalo on March 30. From then on, Matthews is on a seven-game goal streak with nine scored in that span. He’s at 68 goals with three games left in the season, making 70 a realistic achievement if he can keep his current pace.

"I don't know that anyone knows how to stop him," Red Wings defenseman Ben Chiarot said Saturday after morning skate. "Like all the good scorers — Ovechkin, MacKinnon, all these guys — just stay tight to him in the O-zone, try and not let him get the shot off. But like I said, he's got as many goals as he's got for a reason: he's tough to stop."

He might find a favorable adversary in the Red Wings, who lack a true matchup line without Copp and Rasmussen. They don’t have a line that can shadow him like his scoring clout necessitates.

Where to Watch
Tonight’s 7 p.m. ET game will air on Bally Sports Detroit Extra, as well as local channel 20 WMYD in Detroit. It can be streamed on ESPN+ and Hulu.

Scoreboard Watch
New York Islanders at New York Rangers, 12:30 p.m. on ABC (0-0 through the first period)

New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, 5 p.m. on ESPN+
Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m. on ESPN+
Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, 8 p.m. on ABC

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