Statistical Review: Red Wings 1, Bruins 4

Last night in Boston, the Detroit Red Wings dropped their third straight game, falling 4-1 at the hands of the Bruins.  It was a game in which Boston raced out of the gate, dominating the opening 20 minutes and more or less throttling the final 40.  For a clearer picture of the game, let's take a dive into some underlying numbers from last night.

-By all situations expected goals (courtesy of MoneyPuck.com), last night was an overwhelming Bruins victory: 3.96-2.2.  

For Boston, a huge portion of that advantage emerged from a dominant first period, which allowed the Bruins to play a stout defensive game for the final two periods without needing to worry much about chance creation themselves.

In the first, Boston built a 2-0 lead on 2.333 xG, while the Red Wings mustered just 0.784 xG and failed to beat Jeremy Swayman.  In other words, the Bruins accrued more xG in the first than Detroit did all night.

The second and third periods were far more competitive.  

In the second, Boston bested the Red Wings again by xG, but this time the margin was down to 0.735-0.578.  In the third, the Bruins survived early Detroit pressure to take the xG battle 0.891-0.801 and the actual goal battle 2-1.  However, Boston's xG total for the third is a bit misleading, given that 0.64 of those expected goals came on David Pastrnak's empty netter to ice the game.

-When you dive into the five-on-five numbers over the course of the game, it becomes clear that this was a closer contest than it might have felt while watching it live.  

Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit earned a 50% shot share, 43.24% share of scoring chances, 57.14% share of high danger chances, and 48.98% share of expected goals (all numbers for five-on-five play).

That high danger chance number is interesting, because it certainly felt as though Boston was able to generate slot shots at will, especially in the first period.  The below heat map (also from NST) certainly suggests an abundance of opportunity around the net for the Bruins.  While Detroit was able to muster some of the same in the Boston zone, the Red Wings were lacking when it came to their volume of chance creation.

Nonetheless, at five-on-five, this was by no means a rout.  Boston had a slim edge when it came to generating offense, but the Red Wings had their fair share of opportunities and were perhaps a bit hard done by to not fare better in this game.

In this regard, the performance is roughly in line with what the Bruins did in year one under head coach Jim Montgomery, when they set NHL records in points and wins a year ago.  

That team owned an absurd 63.69% share of five-on-five goals; that number was 7.36% clear of second place (the Seattle Kraken).  However, by xG share, they were down at 53.77%, sixth in the league.  The latter number is still good (especially when paired with Boston's dominant special teams) but gives off a vibe more like "credible Cup contender" than "greatest team ever."

If nothing else, last night serves as a reminder (to anyone who might have needed it) that the Bruins remain a bear to deal with, even after the massive off-season talent exodus.

-When you look at the below chart of individual xG (once again, hat tip to MoneyPuck), it becomes clear that the Red Wings might have been good enough defensively (or at least close to it), but they didn't create enough to pose a major threat to Boston.

Alex DeBrincat accounted for the most individual xG on the night (0.37), and that number trailed four different Bruins.  Detroit got solid contributions from up and down the line-up, but when you put it all together, it just wasn't enough danger to seriously test the Bruins.

-Speaking of DeBrincat, another source of encouragement from this game might be that the top line of DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond performed admirably against difficult competition.

In 7:44 at five-on-five, the line racked up 0.578 xG and conceded 0.47 xG to Boston for a 55.2% xG share.  They did not score, but they weren't scored on.  They did that playing predominantly against the Bruins top line and defense pair.

At five-on-five, Larkin's most frequent competition was Matt Grzelcyk (7:06), Pastrnak (6:49), Charlie McAvoy (6:12), Pavel Zacha (6:10), and Brad Marchand (5:52).

Of course, it would've been nice to see Larkin and company apply a bit more offensive pressure and find the back of the net, but against some of the best top-of-the-line-up competition in the league, they held their own at the very least.

-Detroit's best line at five-on-five was the third trio of Michael Rasmussen, Joe Veleno, and Daniel Sprong.  

At Friday's practice, the Red Wings debuted a slight shift in their middle six, with Rasmussen and David Perron switching spots on the second and third lines.  At least for the third line, that change paid dividends.

In 5:02 together at five-on-five, the line put up 0.534 xG while yielding just 0.259 xG against for an exemplary 67.3% xG share.  Veleno scored the Red Wings' lone goal, but the line did concede a goal against as well.

The early season has brought with it a few welcome developments for Red Wing fans.  Most notably, there's been the immediate success in integrating DeBrincat into the Red Wings' top line and power play.  Not far behind has been the strong early form of Lucas Raymond, serving as that top line's "horse" in DeBrincat's words.

Joe Veleno's start to the year represents one more bit of great news for the future for Detroit.  He entered the year on the epitome of a prove-it contract: one year, $885K.  The time had come for Veleno to prove what exactly he could contribute to a team with playoff aspirations, and the early returns have been excellent.

He's brought 200-foot responsibility and speed, and he's leveraged those skills into more than his fair share of offensive contributions.  His dazzling goal last night was an obvious example of the confidence he's built with his strong start.

-On the back end, Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl were the Red Wings' top performing defense pair.  Per MoneyPuck, they played 9:40 together at five-on-five and controlled play to the tune of a 54.4% share of the on-ice expected goals (0.528 xGF, 0.444 xGA).  No other Detroit pair that played more than two minutes together came out with better than a 50% share of on-ice expected goals.

-Finally, in net, Ville Husso performed admirably against a heavy workload.  Against 3.32 xGA, Husso conceded three goals for a 0.32 Goals Saved Above Expected.

Over the last week, Derek Lalonde spoke about his belief that "soft goals" are a killer for a team because of the way they (temporarily) pull the entire bench out of the fight in their aftermath.

The second Bruin goal of the game is one that Husso almost certainly would want back.  It was another example of Detroit's poor defending in front of the net, but the Finnish goaltender got a ton of Charlie McAvoy's stuff attempt, and he couldn't keep it out.

Nonetheless, it shouldn't be discounted that, on aggregate, Husso faced heavy pressure and, by the numbers, performed better than he ought to have.

Be sure to check out THN Detroit's new podcast: The Silky Mitten State. I'm joined by Connor Earegood of The Michigan Daily, College Hockey News, and THN's new NCAA site. We'll be chatting Red Wings, college hockey across the state, and anything else related to hockey in Michigan that catches our attention. Be on the look out for a new episode every Friday.

Here's a quick video preview, in which Connor and I chat about Alex DeBrincat's excellent start to the new year.

You can find full episodes on either Spotify or Apple Podcasts: