The numbers behind a poor start, the first and fourth lines do their part, Robby Fabbri's quiet return, and other takeaways from the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-3 loss in New York

On Tuesday night in New York, the Detroit Red Wings dropped a 5-3 decision to the Rangers in what was, in all likelihood, the team's worst performance of the season to date.  For a better sense of where the game went wrong, let's dive into the underlying numbers.

The Big Picture

-By all situations expected goals, the Red Wings were off the pace from the start, finishing the night in a 2.76-4.47 deficit to their hosts, per MoneyPuck.  

The first period was not actually as bad as it might have felt live in terms of chance quality, though.  The Rangers were the better team in the first (without a doubt), but there wasn't a ton of chance creation in either direction (0.112 xG for Detroit and 0.56 for New York).  In the second however, the Red Wings lost the plot, and the Rangers enjoyed a 1.741-0.636 edge in xG, with the power play playing a major role in getting that ball rolling.  The Red Wings pushed back in the third, but that pushback proved insufficient after the game's start.

-While these reviews tend to focus on advanced stats, the easiest metrics through which to understand this game are 0-for-6 (the Detroit power play) and 2-for-3 (the Ranger power play).  It's damn hard to win in the NHL (or any hockey league) without winning the special teams battle, and losing it as decisively as the Red Wings did Tuesday is a surefire way to put yourself in serious trouble.

-Though special teams were probably the decisive factor, it's not as though Detroit covered itself in glory at five-on-five.  

Over the course of 60 minutes, New York held the Red Wings to a 39.53% share of the game's shots, a 33.33% share of scoring chances, a 35.29% share of high-danger chances, and a 35.74% share of the expected goals, per Natural Stat Trick.

While the Rangers didn't necessarily drive a ton of shot quality in the game's first 20 minutes, the numbers suggest that New York was the better team by great distance in the first period.  At five-on-five (again, per NST), the Red Wings earned just 13.33% of the shots, 0% of the scoring chances (and thus 0% of the high-danger chances), and a paltry 11.89% share of the expected goals.

Individual Impacts

-Despite a disappointing all-around effort, the first and fourth lines for the Red Wings performed admirably at five-on-five.

The familiar top line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond played 9:25 together at five-on-five.  In that time, they posted 0.496 xG for and 0.344 xG against for an impressive 59.0% share of the expected goals.  They were not on the ice for an actual goal, either for or against.

Meanwhile, a slightly novel fourth line trio of Klim Kostin, Michael Rasmussen, and Christian Fischer was even more dominant.  In just 8:31 together at five-on-five, they accrued 0.422 xG for compared to 0.217 xG against for an exemplary 66.0% share of on-ice expected goals.  Even more impressive, they scored two actual goals (one a piece for Kostin and Rasmussen) without conceding.

-It was not a night to remember for any of Detroit's defense pairs.  Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot played 12:19 together at five-on-five to the tune of a 42.4% share of on-ice xG, and that was the best any pairing fared.  Jake Walman and Moritz Seider earned just a 22.1% xG share in 12:09 at even strength, while Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta put up a 37.2% xG in 11:20 together at five-a-side.

Given the margin in this game wasn't exactly a fine one, I think it would be an overreach to suggest that a single player might have flipped this game, but I'm not sure it's a coincidence the Red Wings seem to suffer defensively without Justin Holl in the line-up.  The team's two worst defensive performances by xG of the season (last night and the previous Monday against the New York Islanders) have come with Holl out of the line-up.

-It was a quiet night for Robby Fabbri in his return from a roughly month-long absence due to a lower body injury.  He played 12:42, posting a shot on goal, a blocked shot, and a -2 rating.  His primary line-mates were Daniel Sprong and Joe Veleno, and that trio struggled a good deal at five-on-five.

In 8:49 together, the line managed just 0.084 xG for compared to 0.586 xG against for a 12.6% xG, and it was on the ice for a pair of Ranger goals.

-Finally, it was another difficult night for Ville Husso in goal.  He faced 3.467 xG and conceded five goals for a -1.53 Goals Saved Above Expected.

Once again, Husso allowed his team to sink into an early hole thanks to a soft goal against.  Vincent Trochek's opening marker was rated at a 1.3% chance of finding its target by MoneyPuck or a 0.013 xG shot.  

Simply put, Husso wasn't the only problem Tuesday, but he was one of them.

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