Five-on-five struggles, Husso wins the goalie battle, and other takeaways from the numbers underlying last night's 4-3 Detroit win over the Islanders
The Detroit Red Wings scored a dramatic come-from-behind overtime victory over the New York Islanders last night at UBS Arena. It was a game in which it felt as though Detroit deserved the win based on the run of play and perhaps should have been leading much sooner than they were if it weren't for Ilya Sorokin standing tall in the New York crease. However, a dive into the numbers from last night suggests that the opposite may have been the case. Let's take a look.
The Big Picture
-By all situations xG according to MoneyPuck, the Red Wings trailed the Islanders 2.89-4.93, with the hosts putting in a major shift in the first half of the second period to pull away from their guests. In a roughly ten minute span to open the second, New York accrued 1.949 xG, during which Detroit mustered just 0.125 xG of its own. The Red Wings began to push back by period's end, but that success was more about shot volume than shot quality, a theme that would persist into the third period.
-Natural Stat Trick re-affirms this dynamic. Per the site, the Red Wings had a 48.39% share of shots, 43.33% share of high danger chances, 51.47% share of scoring chances, and just a 42.87% share of expected goals. The Islanders were able to drive a high volume of A+ chances in the inner slot, and, in fact, it was probably New York who (by the numbers) was unfortunate not to come away from this game with more.
Individual Impacts
-That reality becomes even clearer when we dive into some individual numbers from the night's game.
J.T. Compher was Detroit's best player throughout the comeback. He played 19:11 and posted a team-leading 68.41% share of on-ice expected goals in all situations. He scored a key third-period goal, and he assisted on Lucas Raymond's OT winner.
However, Compher was one of just three Red Wings to come away with a greater than 50% share of on-ice expected goals. The other two were Christian Fischer (62.28%) and Andrew Copp (53.03%).
-Up front, both Joe Veleno's line and Dylan Larkin's line struggled in the defensive third of the rink. The Veleno line (with Daniel Sprong and Michael Rasmussen) gave up 1.156 xG against, and the Larkin line (with Alex DeBrincat and Raymond) conceded 1.372 xG.
On the back end, Moritz Seider and Jake Walman were the team's top performers. In 18:07 (a team high for D pairs) at five-on-five, they were on the ice for 1.605 xG for and 1.943 xG against, a 45.2% share. That might not seem like much, until you look at the Red Wings' other two defense pairs.
Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry had an extremely difficult evening together. In 16:01, they were on the ice for just 0.108 xG for compared to 1.167 xG against. That adds up to a dreadful 8.5% xG share. Meanwhile, Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta didn't fare much better. In 11:24, they posted a 26.3% xG share (on 0.289 xG for and 0.807 xG against).
The Islanders line of Anders Lee, Bo Horvat, and Mat Barzal played just 8:16 at five-on-five but proved more than a little troublesome for Detroit, putting up 1.414 xG in that time together.
As we always say in these reviews, a one-game sample is small, and that fact inevitably leads to some numbers that either over-inflated or under-inflated, and this doesn't have to mean that either of those bottom two pairs are a disaster.
However, it's also a fact that the Red Wings defensive effort last night wouldn't be a winning one very often.
-The biggest reason Detroit was able to overcome those defensive lapses wore extra protective equipment and stood between the pipes.
As the game played out, it certainly felt as though Ilya Sorokin was the goaltender keeping his team afloat, but, by the numbers, that distinction rightly belongs to Ville Husso.
Husso faced 4.934 xG and conceded just three goals for a 1.93 Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck. On the other hand, Sorokin gave up four goals on 2.886 xG for a -1.111 GSAE, suggesting that he in fact let down the team in front of him.
Whatever the source of the disconnect between how the goaltending battle might have felt and what the numbers suggest, one thing is clear: Ville Husso was excellent for the Red Wings last night.
The Silky Mitten State
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