The Red Wings once owned the picks that Dallas used to select young phenom Wyatt Johnston and the L.A. Kings used on now-Wild star Brock Faber
The Red Wings once owned the picks that Dallas used to select young phenom Wyatt Johnston and the L.A. Kings used on now-Wild star Brock Faber
Since the 2016-17 season, the Detroit Red Wings have traded away 67 different assets — draft picks and players — as part of their rebuild efforts. Fifty-one of those assets have been moved during Steve Yzerman’s tenure, including some players who were acquired and flipped in subsequent trades. But two assets stand out above the rest: picks that would’ve given the Red Wings Calder-nominated defenseman Brock Faber and star center Wyatt Johnston.
These draft picks were wheeled and dealed by Yzerman in his first two seasons at the helm, the gains of selling at the trade deadline that were used in packages for other draft picks. And they show us the risk and reward nature of pursuing an aggressive rebuild strategy that moves picks around. For every decision, to trade or not to trade, there's a cost. As much as more draft picks can be shiny, or a higher draft pick can pack all the more allure, good asset usage matters just as much as the acquisition of draft capital.
The Red Wings got the draft picks that turned into Faber and Johnston by pursuing the usual steps of a rebuild. Way back at the 2020 trade deadline — mere weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic derailed the season — the Red Wings acquired two second round picks and forward Sam Gagner after trading forwards Andreas Athanasiou and Ryan Kuffner to the Oilers. And at the 2021 trade deadline, Yzerman shipped Anthony Mantha to the Washington Capitals in exchange for forward Jakub Vrana, forward Richard Panik, a 2021 first round pick and a 2022 second round pick. These were big hauls at the time, the type of assets that had fans excited for what Yzerman could do with them.
Then he traded them, both in draft-day deals.
In 2020, the L.A. Kings traded up in the 2020 draft to select Faber, giving the Red Wings a second rounder just six picks later plus an extra fourth rounder as compensation. Those picks went toward forward prospects Theodor Niederbach and Sam Stange, respectively, both of whom have yet to sign ELCs. Niederbach's draft rights expire June 1, and he's not expected to sign with Detroit. Likewise, Stange's rights expire August 15, and he's spending next season with Omaha in the NCAA. So, unless something changes, the Kings got Faber for free. They ended up moving him to Minnesota in a package for Kevin Fiala, so the Red Wings have company in missing his services.
But whereas Yzerman played the 2020 draft patient, his approach changed nine and a half months later. In the 2021 NHL Draft, Yzerman got aggressive.
As the picks came in on the first round, Yzerman hit the phones. He packaged Washington’s first-round pick from the Mantha trade — No. 23 in the draft — with the Rangers’ 2021 second round pick acquired from taking on the Marc Staal contract and Ottawa’s 2021 fifth rounder, gotten by way of Montreal by trading defenseman Jon Merrill at the deadline. Those assets turned the No. 23 pick into Dallas’ No. 15 pick, an eight-spot jump that gave Yzerman his pick of the litter for a goaltender. And in true Yzerman fashion, he went off-script a little bit and passed up top goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt for second-ranked Sebastian Cossa. Meanwhile, the Stars drafted Johnston at No. 23, defenseman Artem Grushnikov in the second round and defenseman Jack Bar in the fifth.
How did these picks turn out? Well, on Detroit’s end, Cossa is the top goaltender in the pipeline, currently leading Grand Rapids in the Calder Cup Playoffs. He set a Griffins record with 19 straight games with a point — breaking a record that was set when he was just nine days old. He also owns a 3-1 record versus Wallstedt, with two of his wins having come in overtime. He’s a rising star that will probably be the Red Wings’ future in the crease once he is ready for the NHL. The Stars also got big pieces. With Johnston, the Stars’ top-line center was an All-Rookie team selection who has scored 106 points in 164 regular season games, as well as 17 points in 32 career playoff games. Dallas packaged Grushnikov with draft picks to acquire Chris Tanev, one of the top defensemen at this year’s trade deadline. Bar is entering his senior season at Harvard this fall.
With the name value of Faber and Johnston, it’s possible to see each trade as a lost deal that put the Red Wings back a step. Los Angeles won the 2020 trade that got them Faber. With the Johnston-Cossa pick swap, it might take some more time to truly declare a winner, though Johnston’s talent would be a premium asset for a Detroit team that needs another scoring center.
However, seeing these trades as failures is an unfair judgment. With 67 picks moved as part of the rebuild effort, Yzerman was bound to deal at least a couple that turned into solid NHLers and prospects. He knew he would have to give up a big asset to get the pick that netted Cossa. In the case of Faber’s pick, this is more an indictment on the scouting staff that didn’t see the value that Faber could provide. Hindsight isn’t forgiving, and it makes these sorts of what-ifs too easy without the context of their situation.
In any case, the Faber and Johnston picks are examples of the kind of risks associated with constantly trading away picks as part of a rebuild strategy. Play it patient and stack up assets, and you might just miss out on a Faber. Get aggressive and trade up for a guy you like, and Johnston might end up going to the other team. In a field where it's impossible to be omniscient, those gaps in the Red Wings' knowledge can still have a heavy price tag. These trade-offs come with the territory of making deals; living with the result either way is an important temperament during such a wholesale rebuild as the Red Wings' process.
There's a chance that Detroit trades picks in this year's draft, too, perhaps to pursue a higher pick or perhaps to gather more selections. The moving draft picks could end up getting the Red Wings some good players in the future, or they could end up being big players for another team. This risk and reward calculation is something that Detroit should keep in mind at the negotiating table.
It’s fun to envision what this Detroit team could look like with Johnston and Faber on the roster. Perhaps they could have pushed the Red Wings over the edge and made them a playoff team. Maybe the players wouldn’t have turned out so well for a million nuanced variables. We’ll never know, and that’s part of the fun. But we do know that of the 67 assets that Detroit shipped out over the past eight seasons, these are two of the biggest what-ifs. As such, they're a lesson in the costs of the wheeling-dealing nature of rebuilding.
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