Diving into the underlying numbers from a 4-0 Red Wings loss in Arizona
Diving into the underlying numbers from a 4-0 Red Wings loss in Arizona
Last night was a sobering one for the Detroit Red Wings, losing 4-0 to the lowly, trade-depleted, struggling Arizona Coyotes at Mullet Arena in Tempe. The Red Wings remain in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, but their margin in that position has dwindled. Detroit is now just two points up on the Islanders (currently the first team out) having played an extra game. For a better sense of where Friday night's game went wrong, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By expected goals (per MoneyPuck), Detroit out-chanced its hosts 2.76-1.98, a fact that is likely little consolation to Red Wing fans. The first period was a disaster for Detroit, surrendering an 0.37-0.954 advantage by xG and trailing 0-3 on the scoreboard. The Red Wings began to apply pressure in the second half of the second period to build its eventual xG advantage, but by the time that pressure came, it was too late, and Arizona already led 4-0.
-The below heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots tells a similar story. The Red Wings created a decent volume of offense with a reasonably good concentration of offense around the Coyotes' net, but they were unable to convert those chances into actual goals, which Arizona was able to find.
-Per NST, Detroit delivered solid five-on-five numbers last night, posting a 54.46% CorsiFor, a 50% share of scoring chances, a 62.5% share of high-danger chances, and a 60.12% share of expected goals. However, a lack of chance conversion and another lost special teams battle (0/1 for the Red Wing power play, 1/2 for the Coyotes') set the table for Detroit's fourth consecutive loss.
Individual Impacts
-This was another difficult night for Alex Lyon in net. He made just 20 saves on 24 shots (an .833 save percentage), which amounted to -2.02 Goals Saved Above Expected according to MoneyPuck. That is not exactly an encouraging data point to receive a few hours after the Red Wings committed to upholding their present goaltending battery at the trade deadline.
-In part because Detroit went with 11 forwards and seven defensemen and in part because of the early deficit, the Red Wings abandoned the lines with which they began the game (the same ones it had used two nights earlier in Colorado, only without the traded Klim Kostin).
Derek Lalonde moved Joe Veleno off the top line and promoted J.T. Compher, creating a first line of Compher between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. That unit was effective in chance creation, putting up an 0.883-0.419 edge in xG in 9:02 together at five-on-five. However, they were out-scored 1-0. DeBrincat led Detroit with 0.78 individual xG on four shots.
That left a second line of Lucas Raymond, Veleno, and David Perron, which was also reasonably effective but unable to score. They played 6:21 of scoreless hockey, while earning an 0.475-0.184 edge by xG.
There's at least some promise of a path forward there, but I would be cautious about reading too much into those results given the role of score effects in producing them and the lack of actual conversion. It seems relatively clear that Dylan Larkin's injury has left the Detroit top six a bit toothless. That's a problem Jonatan Berggren (whom Steve Yerman said would be called up for tonight's game in Vegas on last night's broadcast) might help address.
-Meanwhile, I'm once again a bit confused that Andrew Copp didn't see a bigger workload in Larkin's absence. He played just 15:14 last night (over a minute below his season average of 16:24) and finished the night -1 with no shots, but 50% at the face-off dot and with a 73.7% on-ice xG share at five-on-five.
-On the back end, Jake Walman and Moritz Seider enjoyed a strong game together. They played 10:26 of scoreless hockey and generated an 0.824-0.315 advantage by xG in those minutes.
Meanwhile, Justin Holl folded into the lineup for the first time since the All-Star break. He played 14:17 (all of it at five-on-five) and earned an even rating and 71.3% share of on-ice xG. That's a solid return to the lineup, especially considering the context of such a poor overall performance from the team, but Holl's lack of involvement on special teams (particularly the penalty kill) leads me to believe he'll be back in the press box this evening to make room for Berggren.
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