A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 7-2 Red Wings loss in Colorado

Last night in Denver, the Red Wings faced their first test since Dylan Larkin's injury, and with a 7-2 final score in favor of the Avalanche, it must be said they failed that test.  For a clearer sense of how a strong Detroit start evolved into a humbling margin by the final horn, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers from last night.

The Big Picture

-By all situations expected goals according to MoneyPuck, the Avalanche finished the night with a 5.35-4 advantage.  However, the game did not begin so lopsided.  At the end of the first, the score was tied at two, but it was the visitors who were significantly better value for their goals with the Red Wings earning a 3.036-1.338 edge by xG.  Over the remaining 40 minutes, Detroit struggled to create any meaningful offense.  By the end of the second, Colorado led 3.732-3.27 by xG, and that margin would continue to swell in the third.

-The Red Wings also lost the special teams battle, going 1/2 on their opportunities while allowing the home side to go 2/6 on the man advantage.  However, special teams were hardly the sole source of Detroit's troubles.

-The below heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots illustrates the abundance of quality offense Colorado drove last night and the way they were rewarded for it, with three goals from just beyond the crease and two more from the periphery of the slot (all at five-a-side).  The Red Wings scored from just beyond the crease too and created some slot offense, but the disparity is nonetheless striking.

Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, Detroit earned just a 34.82% CorsiFor, a 27.27% share of scoring chances, an identical 27.27% share of high-danger chances, and a 36.72% share of on-ice xG.  Simply put, when you combine those with losing the special teams battle, you will not win very often.

Individual Impacts

-Before diving into some individual and line performances, it's worth offering the caveat that I completely understand (and in many ways agree with) the reaction to last night's game of "that was an all-around disaster, and you might as well just move on to the next one and forget about it."  However, last night was our first look at a Larkin-less forward group at this stage in the season, so I think it's worth at least considering how that played out via the underlying numbers.

Unsurprisingly, given the Avs' lead, this was a night in which Derek Lalonde did lots of tinkering with his lines, with really only one (maybe one-and-a-half) taking an especially regular shift together.

The top line of Alex DeBrincat, Joe Veleno, and Patrick Kane struggled.  They played 12:39 together at five-on-five, putting up 0.262 xG for compared to 0.827 xG against, and they were outscored 1-0.  That's not to say this line (with Veleno as Larkin fill-in) can't work, but there's not much positive to say about last night's first trial.

The second line of Michael Rasmussen, J.T. Compher, and Lucas Raymond had a similar performance.  In 8:24 at five-on-five, they were out-chanced 0.238-0.991 and out-scored 0-1.

The Klim Kostin-Christian Fischer-Daniel Sprong trio (ostensibly Detroit's fourth line, but third in terms of five-on-five ice time) fared a bit better in their 7:23 at five-a-side but not much.  They were out-chanced 0.378-0.59 and out-scored 0-1.

The one mostly successful trio for the Red Wings was David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Robby Fabbri.  They only played 3:44, but they earned an 0.999-0.505 edge in xG and scored while giving up a goal.

It's a bit curious to me that Copp only played 12:19 last night, eighth among Red Wing forwards.  Without Larkin available, I would've expected all of the team's natural centermen to see a meaningful uptick in minutes, but that wasn't the case for Copp, even on a busy night for the penalty kill (where he's been a fixture all year).

Copp finished second among Detroit skaters in terms of five-on-five xG share at 60.84% (just behind Fabbri at 60.99%).  Of course a lighter workload helps that number in the context of a game where the team collectively struggled, but you'd have to imagine he'll have more on his plate when the Red Wings return to action tomorrow.

-Finally, Alex Lyon stopped 35 of 40 shots over two periods and finished his night at -1.27 Goals Saved Above Expected.  I think anyone who watched the game would struggle to name a Red Wing who played better than Lyon last night, and this is simply a case of the way xGs can be harsh for a goalie in a small sample blowout.  For James Reimer, it was a similar situation—12 saves on 14 shots in the third for a -0.38 GSAE.

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