In this piece from 2016, Matt Larkin looked at Tampa Bay's need for Steven Stamkos and the way keeping him around might affect the Lightning's salary cap. With Stamkos a pending UFA this offseason, they're in a similar boat yet again.
In this piece from 2016, Matt Larkin looked at Tampa Bay's need for Steven Stamkos and the way keeping him around might affect the Lightning's salary cap. With Stamkos a pending UFA this offseason, they're in a similar boat yet again.
Steven Stamkos' UFA rumors could end up being a nothing burger. They could also end up reshaping the Eastern Conference's hierarchy. There's little in between.
The Tampa Bay captain and scoring dynamo is set to hit free agency unless his Tampa Bay Lightning can re-sign him. If he leaves, it would be the end of a 16-year era where he was the face of the Lightning, even with other stars like Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman in the mix. Wherever he lands will become a far better team with him in the mix.
I debated whether Detroit could find itself the recipient of Stamkos' services yesterday, but it's far more likely that the Tampa Bay captain stays home. At least, it should be. Even his coach said as much when asked about the situation.
“I don’t know if there will be much conversation. I hope not anyway,” Jon Cooper said Monday night when asked about Stamkos’ contract talks. “He belongs here. We know it, he knows it. We’ve grown up together. He’s a heck of a player, but he’s also, you know, I mean, he controls his own destiny, but I don’t know what’s going to happen. But he feels like a Bolt for life, but only he and Julien can answer that one.”
Well, they've answered this question before. Back in 2016, Stamkos nearly hit free agency — maybe even to become a Red Wing — before Steve Yzerman signed him to an eight-year extension in Tampa Bay. Before that, then-THN writer Matt Larkin dissected the desire for Stamkos to stay with the Lightning, specifically the cap circumstances of his extension and the way that could affect their ability to maintain depth. Stamkos' extension ended up being significantly less of an impact on Tampa Bay's cap crunch. The Lightning became one of the deepest and strongest teams in the NHL for the better part of his contract.
What about now, though? What about Stamkos' impact on the salary cap from here on out? The Lightning have a lot of core players — Brayden Point, Vasilevskiy, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli — signed to overlapping contracts for a few more seasons. Those are the last bits of the current Tampa Bay contention window that saw them hoist two Stanley Cups, and there's a chance that Stamkos could factor into that, too. But, if he sticks with the Lightning, his team might not have all the cap space to flesh out depth that makes them a contender. Moving on from Stamkos might make sense from a cap standpoint because of the way that his cap hit could otherwise be distributed to two players that provide more depth. While Larkin pointed out a concern with keeping the core together back in 2016, Stamkos now has the chance to undo some important depth pieces that make a deep playoff run possible.
At the end of the day, teams don't get better by losing great players, but they do get better by adapting to the needs of their roster. Maybe a reason Julien BriseBois didn't extend Stamkos in the offseason was because he wanted to save cap space to seek additional depth, not committing to a big contract for an older player with diminishing returns.
You can be the judge of what the Lightning should do, but for now, here's Larkin's article from 2016. See how much of this you think applies to the present.
From the THN Archive: "Saying No to Steven" by Matt Larkin
May 27, 2016 / Vol. 69, Issue 16
WE’VE NEVER SEEN anyone like Steven Stamkos right here, right now. Typical hockey media hyperbole? Not when you consider the context. Anze Kopitar, a pending unrestricted free agent, inked an eight-year, $80-million contract over the winter to remain a Los Angeles King. An overpay? Probably, but the market dictated the price. That’s what it cost to keep him.
Now consider that Kopitar will be 29 when 2016-17 starts. Stamkos will be 26. Even if ‘Stammer’ hasn’t reached his previous offensive heights since breaking his leg in 2013-14, he’s still coming off seasons of 43 and 36 goals. A player of his caliber almost never hits the open market at this age. That’s why his UFA status can’t be overhyped. The Stamkos sweepstakes are pretty much unprecedented. The 16 highest-paid players in average annual value for 2016-17 resigned with their teams before hitting the open market. The last marquee guys to become UFAs were Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in 2012, and Stamkos is a more accomplished player than both, a two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner as goal-scoring champ.
The Tampa Bay Lightning can retain Stamkos, their captain, for up to eight years, and any other team can lock him up for up to seven. The latter contract would only take him to age 33. Not only does the team signing him get a few more prime years, it’s highly unlikely the contract turns into an albatross near its end, as Stamkos won’t be old enough. He’s also young enough that we haven’t necessarily seen the last of his dominant years. Alex Ovechkin regressed to 32- and 38-goal seasons at age 25 and 26 and appeared to be exiting his prime, but he bounced back to lead the league in goals four straight times at age 27, 28, 29 and 30.
Comparables always matter during contract negotiations, and the NHL’s three players making $10 million or more in 2016-17 – Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar – have a crucial advantage over Stammer: Stanley Cups. Their multiple titles could justify them earning more money than Stamkos.
The blood clot scare that knocked Stamkos out of the playoffs could also end up discounting his price. But we can’t underestimate how much going to the open market will spike his value. Chicago locked up Toews and Kane at a $10.5-million average annual value a year before they became UFAs. Kopitar inked his deal half a season before free agency. Barring a shocking announcement before the end of the NHL draft, Stamkos will remain unsigned through the free agent negotiation window, which begins five days before July 1. The existence of multiple eligible suitors will skyrocket his price. It would not be surprising to see him walk away with the richest contract in the NHL’s salary cap era.
Considering what Stamkos will cost, should the Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman walk away from the table? They showed in the playoffs they are a dangerous team even without their captain. Over the next two summers, star defenseman Victor Hedman, goalie Ben Bishop and checking center Brian Boyle become UFAs. Tampa’s restricted free agents to re-sign over the next two summers: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Vladislav Namestnikov, among others. Yzerman has his entire team core to lock up, and paying Stamkos north of $10 million could force many important pieces out. The team Tampa can afford to field without Stamkos may be superior to what it can with him.
The THN Archive is an exclusive vault of 2,640 issues and more than 156,000 stories for subscribers, chronicling the complete history of The Hockey News from 1947 until today. Visit THN.com/archive and subscribe today at subscribe.thehockeynews.com
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