The Red Wings could use their 15th overall pick as part of a trade package for an “impact forward” to help next year’s roster. The long term impact of such a trade, however, makes it a risky decision.
The Red Wings could use their 15th overall pick as part of a trade package for an “impact forward” to help next year’s roster. The long term impact of such a trade, however, makes it a risky decision.
Is the Detroit Red Wings prospect pool good enough?
It’s a question that’s difficult to answer given the way it asks to judge the unknowns of the future using the half-knowns of the present. Compared to the rest of the NHL, the Red Wings are in an enviable spot. Most media assessments rank them in the top two prospect pools, with blue chips at multiple positions. But, the ultimate goal isn’t to have a bunch of talented prospects; rather, Detroit wants to turn those players into NHLers. The Red Wings think they have some future stars, but they won’t have a true answer to the state of their prospect pipeline until those players progress through it.
Unfortunately, the Red Wings can’t wait that long for an answer. Many decisions this offseason rely on their ability to determine where they’re at in the rebuilding process — that is, if their prospect pool is good enough, and if not where they need to bolster it. The free agents Detroit pursues this offseason, the terms on its RFA deals, and especially how it approaches this year’s NHL Draft all hinge one way or another on the state of the prospect pool, and how much help it can reasonably plan to get in the near future.
In this year's NHL Draft, the Red Wings will pick No. 15 this year. With that pick comes a lot of options They can pick someone, likely a winger, to round out any holes in the prospect pool. On the other hand, Detroit also has the option to trade their pick.
Now of course, the Red Wings have been able to trade their picks every season — especially the 2021 and 2023 drafts in which they had multiple first round picks. But, this season is a little different than others in the rebuild. In the past five drafts, Detroit essentially needed to rebuild a prospect pool that was in shambles when Steve Yzerman took over. Now, seven first rounders have made for a strong crop of future Red Wings. The utility of drafting more prospects is much lower than it was in past years. It's now a reasonable option to ship out the draft pick for an upgrade elsewhere.
When assessing the Red Wings' prospects, there's a lot of delayed gratification at play. Only two players — Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond — have really graduated to the NHL level, although 2021 pick Simon Edvinsson seems to have next. Of the other four, Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson could challenge for a roster spot, more likely with Kasper than Danielson. But there’s no guarantee they’ll make the cut in training camp, and Yzerman doesn’t just give hand-outs to his rookies. Likewise, Sebastian Cossa could see some NHL games next season if Detroit doesn’t sign a third goaltender this offseason, but he’s much more likely to spend time in the AHL. Defenseman Axel Sandin Pellikka is going to take at least another year in the SHL. In other words, there’s some waiting to do as the kids get better.
“I don't know that there's a perfect way to develop a player,” Yzerman explained April 19 in his end-of-season press conference. “If they're ready to play in the NHL and they can thrive or they can help the team win games (you can play). … We’re not keeping them in the minors if they’re good enough to play in the NHL, but we think if they’re not going to have an impact in the NHL, we’d prefer they stay in the American Hockey League or stay in college or stay in junior until you’re ready. There's no real rush. I like guys playing a lot and having success, because regardless of what league they’re in, they’re happy and they’re having fun and their confidence is growing and they’re maturing. And that’s important.”
As much as there isn't a rush to get players to the NHL, there's a certain point where the added value of another high pick just won't make such a big difference for Detroit. The goal of this year's draft should be to complement the current prospects more so than build a prospect pool from scratch like other years. And at some point, there might be more value in selling off a draft pick. As the Red Wings play their waiting game to see how the current prospects shape up, they can decide whether they should use this year’s pick to bolster the end of the rebuild when those prospects come up, or whether they should trade it to help improve the current roster.
On the heels of being one point out of a playoff spot, the Red Wings enter an offseason where they’ll undergo a lot of change. They’re due to give Raymond and Seider their first real contracts as their ELCs expire; both should be expensive contracts. That cap usage will almost certainly affect the depth elsewhere in the lineup, where free agents such as David Perron and Patrick Kane might get squeezed out if their asking price is higher than Yzerman can afford to give them against the cap.
Perhaps there's a way to leverage that No. 15 pick to flesh out better depth through a trade. This year is shaping up to be a strong year for wingers on the trade block, with rumors of trades for Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers swirling. Carolina is also alleged to be shopping Martin Necas, an expiring RFA center who played a big role in the Hurricanes’ past couple seasons. Any of those three could be upgrades — not without their accompanying cap gymnastics. If Detroit can't afford them, the attention those three might draw could open up the door for more reasonable negotiations elsewhere. That is to say, if many buyers are chasing the big names that Yzerman might not be able to afford from a cap standpoint, this market should make it cheaper to trade for anyone else. The No. 15 pick could be a part of a package to pick up forward depth.
Of course, Yzerman could trade his first rounder for a non-forward, perhaps a goaltender. With Lyon stretched thin last season as the primary starter, and Ville Husso coming off multiple lower body injuries, the Red Wings might need a goalie upgrade. Perhaps this year’s first rounder could be part of a package for Jacob Markstrom, the 34-year-old Calgary goaltender who has been on the trading block since before the trade deadline. Markstrom could be a valuable stopgap for the next two years as Cossa shapes into the starter he's projected to become.
Ultimately, these upgrades at forward or goaltender could make Detroit a better team next year, perhaps even finally a playoff team. But, the cost of the future might be too rich an expense. The Red Wings still have their prospect pool needs — especially at winger — and this year’s draft haul could be a strong punctuation mark to the drafting portion of the rebuild.
This year’s NHL Draft could be a strong one for wingers, specifically at the middle where Detroit will pick. A proven scorer could be available if Cole Eiserman slips that far, or a hard-nosed forechecker should Michael Brandsegg-Nygard be available.
It’s also an important question to ask whether Yzerman is ready to trade away futures. Back in September, Yzerman addressed his view of patience in the rebuild, saying “Each year, we've tried to add draft picks, we've tried to sign any of our unrestricted free agents that we could or wanted to, and the players that we couldn't or weren't, we traded at the deadline, and I guess you're out of your rebuild when you're not doing that at the deadline. We're still being patient. We're waiting for our younger players to develop.”
The Red Wings held on to their UFAs in March, but they also didn’t make the playoffs and are still waiting for those same prospects as Yzerman spoke of in September. There’s little evidence that the philosophy should change even if the UFAs stayed put, and that’s only more true considering how next year’s depth might thin with potential departing free agents.
For now, Detroit is in the same waiting room, ticking away the time until its younger players are ready to take on NHL roles. It will take time to know whether the Red Wings’ prospect pool is good enough, or whether they could have afforded to trade the pick for an immediate upgrade. In the absence of certain forecasts, it seems the best bet is to load up the cupboard with prospects.
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