You asked us questions, so we answered them in the first-ever THN Detroit mailbag
You asked us questions, so we answered them in the first-ever THN Detroit mailbag
We asked you for your Red Wings questions. You sent us your best, and we’ve got our answers. A couple of these were discussed on the Silky Mitten State yesterday, but we’ll go in better depth here thanks to the long-form convenience of the written word.
Without further ado, let’s get into the questions:
(Note: these questions were lightly edited for clarity)
I feel like we hear a lot about a number of defense prospects, but not too much about Antti Tuomisto. He seems to be doing well in Grand Rapids. Have you heard anything about his progress recently? — D. K.
Before your question, I hadn’t looked a whole lot into Tuomisto’s season, but upon further review it seems he’s having a great season in Grand Rapids. He scored three points in his past five games since being promoted to the top pairing alongside Albert Johansson (who, by the way, just scored with 40 seconds left the other day to force overtime against Milwaukee).
Right now, Tuomisto is probably the most progressed right-side defense prospect in the pipeline, maybe behind Axel Sandin Pellikka if he’s ready to cross the pond quite yet. Tuomisto’s size at 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds is solid, and his 16 points in 42 games this season shows he’s competent with the puck. Even the fact that he got into 42 games with a stacked Grand Rapids defense room — one that had to send players like Jared McIsaac overseas and then to Providence to get reps — is a credit to Tuomisto’s abilities. To your point in the question, it’s a room full of other talents that are often discussed. Tuomisto might fly under the radar, but he seems to have intriguing tools in his own right.
A playoff push with the Griffins should be a valuable experience for Tuomisto, who won the Frozen Four with Denver in the NCAA two years ago and played a handful of playoff games for TPS in the Liiga last year.
Keep an eye out for some Tuomisto content in the future once we can do some further research on your question.
What’s the long-term goalie outlook? — J. E.
Shoutout J.E. for the first of three questions they submitted to the mailbag. To put parameters on "long term," I’ll give you a picture three years from now. I think it’s safe to say that Sebastian Cossa earns some real NHL time by then, and I’d expect his current development track to make him a competitor for the starting role, too. Goalie development is tricky because success and failure in the position is so intertwined with the defensive play in front of them, so I can’t give you a projection as to how Cossa will fare in this role. His draft profile billed him as a starter in the making, and he’s Detroit’s most developed goaltending prospect by far with a couple years' head start on Trey Augustine. That being said, how he performs as a starter is far harder to project.
Speaking of Trey, three years from now I think Augustine will be in Grand Rapids developing with a higher workload. We’ve seen a few elite college goaltenders such as Devon Levi take the jump to the NHL pretty early after leaving college, but most take a longer path through the AHL or ECHL just like Cossa did out of the CHL. Magnus Chrona, Yaniv Perets and Jakub Dobes were all among the NCAA’s top goaltenders last season, and they’ve spent nearly their entire seasons in the minors. To be fair, skills are different goalie to goalie and these three don’t have any bearing on Augustine’s individual development, but I use them as examples of where we see the elite college goalies land when playing in tougher leagues after school. Short and sweet, Augustine will probably be the Griffins’ starter by then just as Cossa is now.
So who will be Detroit’s backup goaltender? I don’t see Ville Husso sticking around that long, nor do I think Alex Lyon will either. While both are under contract next season, I think next offseason will be the flashpoint for the Red Wings to sign some sort of veteran goaltender who can start and compete with Cossa for the job, taking the bad pressure of overuse off of the young netminder and placing the good pressure of competition on his shoulders. Steve Yzerman has shown a lot of patience with prospects, making them compete for jobs and truly prove they’re ready to play in the NHL. Some interesting names could be on the market then, such as Adin Hill, Alexander Georgiev, and Dan Vladar to name a few.
Which veterans are staying and who is leaving? What about Patrick Kane? — J. E.
I’ll start this question off with Patrick Kane since you asked about him specifically, then I’ll pivot to everyone else. I think Detroit wants to sign Kane, and I know his production will be hard for anyone to replace. He’s nearly a point-per-game player with 42 in 43 games, and that includes six of his 18 goals that proved to be game-winners. He’s not only a scorer, but he’s a clutch one at that.
Look, Patrick Kane is going to get a bag. That’s especially true with Pat Brisson as his agent. The cap numbers don’t seem favorable to suggest a return. The Red Wings will have roughly $24 million in cap space to play with this offseason according to CapFriendly, and I would expect between $15-16 million combined to go toward Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider’s new contracts. Joe Veleno is going to eat up some cap, too. That leaves less than $8-9 million to spend on five NHL forwards and maybe a reserve defenseman. Getting Marco Kasper and Carter Mazur to the NHL might help the cap crunch if they’re ready enough, and Jonatan Berggren could provide relief depending on his RFA deal, too. But it really doesn’t seem like the Red Wings have a lot of salary leash to work with here.
Addressing the rest of the vets, I think some cheaper forwards will stay such as Christian Fischer, who probably earns $1.5 million or so next season as a bottom six forward. Maybe the same happens for Austin Czarnik, who has proven to be good organizational depth down the stretch. Daniel Sprong seems likely to hit free agency given the pay bump his back-to-back 40 point seasons will warrant, and how small a role he plays for Detroit at even strength while also being healthy scratched. For James Reimer, I get the impression that this season will be his only one in Detroit.
These estimations leave Kane and David Perron up for debate, and I personally favor Perron’s locker room leadership for a team that will infuse a lot of youth to the lineup next season. I’m not suggesting that Kane isn’t a leader like Perron, but I’ve observed the way Perron is talked about and respected by his teammates so much. His presence seems hard to replace. If I were Yzerman (to clarify, I am not), the hope here would be that the Red Wings could find more scoring elsewhere, maybe from a more productive season from Alex DeBrincat or an expanded scoring role for Robby Fabbri, who can score but has been cast in the bottom six for most of the season.
There’s always the chance that Yzerman offloads a contract this offseason — Sam pointed out Justin Holl’s $3.4 million as an easy option on the podcast. I think that’s probably in the cards to free up some money, and maybe that brings back Kane or Perron.
What prospects should I look out for? — J. E.
I cover a lot of ground in the Prospect Roundup, but I think a good start for prospect watching is the obvious ones: recent first-round picks Kasper, Sandin Pellikka, Cossa and Nate Danielson.
Kasper could bring a two-way presence to the lineup next season as a rookie, the scoring side of which has taken off this second half with Grand Rapids. Again, he could be a big source of cap relief if he’s ready for the NHL. Sandin Pellikka’s scoring metrics were off the charts in Sweden this season (which is still going as he and Skellefteå rolled their way to the SHL semis, by the way. Dios mio, man!). I’m interested in what Cossa can do in the playoffs with Grand Rapids soon, considering how successful he was with Toledo last postseason. Nate Danielson is currently in the first round of the WHL playoffs with Portland, scoring at a career-high pace. I wonder if a tryout with Grand Rapids might be in the cards for him to end this season. He’ll likely land there or Detroit next season since he’d be an overager next season in the CHL, and I don’t know how much more he has to prove in that league.
So if you are just starting out observing the Red Wings’ future ripen, those four are the most consequential.
Thank you again to everyone who submitted a question. It’s always a pleasure to engage with our readers, and we’re always thankful for your support.
Also from THN Detroit
Snapping 10-start Losing Streak, Alex Lyon Comes up Clutch Against Lightning
Perron Plays Hero as Red Wings Persevere for 4-2 Win in Tampa and Two Vital Points
Augustine, MSU See Triumphant Season End One Win Shy of Frozen Four