The Red Wings put themselves in position to win against the Washington Capitals but fell short of a win. As Detroit slips in the playoff race, its lack of results is frustrating even if its process is sound.
The Red Wings put themselves in position to win against the Washington Capitals but fell short of a win. As Detroit slips in the playoff race, its lack of results is frustrating even if its process is sound.
Last night after Detroit’s 2-1 loss to Washington, Detroit coach Derek Lalonde pointed to net traffic and rebound control as a reason his team couldn’t finish on 42 of its 43 shot attempts. In a dominant game, this lack of scoring was the most significant cause of the loss, and a few spoiled rebound attempts drew Lalonde’s criticism.
But playing the tape back, even that net front play wasn’t as bad as he thought, and the evidence that his team played a fantastic game only got stronger.
“We talked about not being around the goalie enough — that was true in rewatching the game, but it was a little better than I thought,” Lalonde said Wednesday. “Our breakouts last night were the cleanest and best they may have been all year long, hence the (five-minute) difference in zone time. Chances were almost two and a half, three to one. … It’s frustrating because that’s probably a win eight or nine times out of 10, but it wasn’t last night. That’s the reality of this time of year. We’re gonna need a little bit more with an opportunity tomorrow.”
So how do you mesh Detroit’s quality play Tuesday night with its frustrating result? At this point in the season, it’s too late to hang laurels on the process. It’s time to focus only on the results.
Because of their lack of finish, the Red Wings are behind the curve on making their playoff hopes a playoff reality. They trail Washington in the second wild card spot by a point, meanwhile they’re tied with Pittsburgh in the runner-up position. Detroit can still make the playoffs with four games on the schedule, but frustrating losses like Tuesday’s turn the playoff hill into a playoff Everest. To make matters worse, Detroit can only make the playoffs with the second wild card, while those other teams could also seize the Metropolitan Division’s third place spot that the New York Islanders have a slim lead on from stringing together wins the past two weeks.
In this regard, the Red Wings have put themselves in a precarious position. In their past 10 games, their record sits at 4-4-2, merely treading water. The Islanders? 7-1-2. The Penguins? 6-1-3. And the Capitals? They’re also 4-4-2, but with two wins over Detroit in that span. Whereas other nearby competitors have seized the opportunity, the Red Wings haven’t.
In context of the recent season, the past 10 games have been an improvement. The .500 record is a far cry from the Red Wings’ 1-8-0 stretch immediately prior. Outscored 43 to 19 and outshot 34.2 to 26.2 on average during that span, Detroit found its playoff chances disappearing before its very eyes. And yet the resilient Red Wings are still mathematically here with four games left.
“To have an opportunity right here — we might not be here next year, you look at some of these lineups and teams they’re growing … there’s teams around us,” Lalonde said. “You don’t get these opportunities and we’re in one. So we had an opportunity last night, we came up short. We have an opportunity tomorrow night against Pittsburgh, we would like to seize that opportunity.”
To seize the moment, Detroit has to figure out how to not only control a game, but also convert on its opportunities. Following its process should lead to opportunities to win a game, but the Red Wings have to pounce on them. The runway has shrunk, and there isn’t time for results to catch up to them.
“I think it’s frustrating in a different way because I feel like we played well, we just didn’t really capitalize on our chances or maybe could’ve made it a little tougher on the goalie,” Patrick Kane said Wednesday “… I think we’ve all been in games like that where you’re dominating and control the pace of play, and then all of a sudden they get one and they get two and it’s like you start pressing a bit. But yeah, I think if we play like that the rest of the way out we should be in good shape.”
The Red Wings’ capitalization has been the recipe all season. Their wins this season have come from a combination of high-level goaltending and finishing; and if one of those parts is missing, they lose. Their four wins in the past 10 games came with a PDO — combined save and shooting percentage — higher than 109, and four of their losses fall below 93.
That stat might make you pause. Commonly, PDO is seen as a measure of luck. But luck doesn’t exist — it’s just an easy explanation to pin on messy results. Look at PDO in a different way, and it’s also a measure of opportunism. Detroit hasn’t been nearly consistent enough in this regard during its biggest moments of the season, especially for a team whose shooting percentage ranks second in the NHL and whose overall PDO ranks fifth.
At a time when they need luck or opportunism or whatever you call it when everything goes right, Detroit hasn’t conjured up enough to make it happen. Now, it’s feeling the heat of its playoff hopes burning out.
“Obviously the games are winding down here, we only have four left,” Kane said, “but you treat these as playoff games so they’re fun to be a part of.”
There isn’t room for moral victories here or complacency with a good process. A good effort or a bad effort by the Red Wings doesn’t matter so much as the outcome of these next four games. Ultimately, they need bounces to go their way, but they also need to make use of them. This is the instinct and reliability that playoff hockey is all about, and Detroit hasn’t shown either at a pivotal moment of the season. Such a reality is harsh, but it’s one that playoff-bound teams have to make their peace with.
“It feels like a playoff not only in the caliber of the game, the intensity of the game, but managing the highs and lows,” Lalonde said Wednesday. “It’s no different in a seven-game type series where you play well and find a way to lose — how do you bounce back? That’ll be our task for tomorrow.”
Four games away from a potential postseason berth, playing so well and losing to Washington certainly put a damper on those hopes. Anything but a regulation win in Pittsburgh on Thursday is probably a fatal blow. So as much as the Red Wings can repeat the process that could’ve won Tuesday night, they’ll need to make use of its blessings, too.
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