The Red Wings captain is still a way's off from Mike Modano's 1374 career points, but he should have plenty of prolific years to come
The Red Wings captain is still a way's off from Mike Modano's 1374 career points, but he should have plenty of prolific years to come
As of this writing (Tuesday, July 16, 2024), Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin (of Waterford, MI) is the highest scoring active NHL player born in the state of Michigan, with 506 career points in 652 games played. He ranks 10th all-time in the category, with long-time Dallas Star and former Red Wing Mike Modano (of Livonia) the all-time leader at 1374 career points in 1499 games played. Turning 28 at the end of the month, is there time for Larkin to catch up?
It would take 879 points for Larkin to take over the top spot from Modano, which is to say double his current total. In other words, it would be no small feat, though incremental gains up the list are well within reach. If Larkin matched last season's 69 points (earned in only 68 games), he would climb to seventh on the list, jumping ahead of Ryan Kesler (also of Livonia) and behind Red Wings legend David Legwand (born in Detroit, scorer of 618 NHL points).
However, compounding the challenge is the looming presence of Larkin's fellow University of Michigan alum Kyle Connor (of Clinton Township). Connor has 485 points in 531 games, ranking 11th in the all-time state scoring leaderboard, and is a credible threat to leap past the Red Wing captain before their two career are done. Meanwhile, Larkin's current Detroit teammate Alex DeBrincat (of Farmington Hills), sits at 15th with 440 points in 532 games played.
If we switch our metric from points to goals, the list changes a bit. Modano remains first with 561, but among active players, it then goes Connor (243), DeBrincat (214), Larkin (212).
Modano worked his way to 1374 points via a 21-year NHL career, breaking into the league for 80 games an 18-year-old. He had two seasons with 90+ points, six more with 80+, and four more with 70+. Connor looks better than Larkin in terms of max production with a season over 90 points, another over 80, and a third over 70, while Larkin has cracked 70 twice, finished with 69 two more times, but never eclipsed 80.
However, time is arguably to Larkin's advantage. Like Modano, his first year as a pro involved 80 NHL games at 19 years of age. Connor's first NHL season was just 20 games played (with some time in the AHL), before playing 76 games as a 21-year-old. It's not a huge difference, but when it comes to compiling all-time stats, it could make a difference on the back end.
So, can Larkin, surpass Modano?
Of course it's a long way to go, as he'd need to more than double his current output, but Larkin is the rare NHLer who has added offense with age. Playing on the deepest, most competitive team of his career last season, Larkin scored more than a point-a-game for the first time. If he can keep that up with better health, there's no reason to think he couldn't at least take a serious run at the record, though he'll have to watch his rear
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