DeBrincat: "I Think Consistency is What Makes Great Players, and I Want to Be a Great Player"

A deep dive into Alex DeBrincat's first season back home in Detroit, investigating his production, defensive contributions, value and areas for improvement

Alex DeBrincat arrived in Detroit for the 2023-24 season as the Red Wings' marquee acquisition, the hometown kid brought in to spark a sputtering offense.  He finished the year playing all 82 games, scoring 27 goals and giving 40 assists (a career high) for 67 points.  

It was a solid if unspectacular star to his Red Wings career, but the uneven distribution of those points across the year (a blistering start followed by a mostly frosty second half) raised questions.  His status as the team's go-to scorer was complicated by the late November signing of old teammate and friend Patrick Kane.  

As DeBrincat himself explained it, his individual season mirrored his team's, enjoyable but with a need for improved consistency.  "I think I had a lot of fun," he said at his end-of-season press availability.  "I think, as a team, we were right there.  Obviously, this is a tough way to get out or whatever, but I think it's only gonna motivate us for next year...We just gotta do it more often.  I think there were too many lulls in the season where we weren't playing well, and it went on for too long."

"Same way as the team I feel like," he added of his personal performance in particular.  "A lot of ups and downs I think.  I would've loved to be more consistent.  When you're going through those slumps, there's still other things you can do to be effective and be beneficial to the team.  Those are the things I try to do.  It's not always perfect, and each year in this league, I think I've gotten better, so I'm hoping to just get better next year and be more consistent.  I think consistency is what makes great players, and I want to be a great player."

Meanwhile, at his end-of-season presser, coach Derek Lalonde was effusive in his praise.  He offered the caveat that he believes DeBrincat wanted to (and could have) score more but stressed that the 26-year-old winger exceeded expectations away from the puck. 

"Alex was great," Lalonde said.  "Obviously his goal total, I think he wanted more of it.  At the same time, he got us a lot of goals, and even through some of those stretches where he wasn't scoring, he had chances, so I wasn't concerned.  What I'm excited about Alex DeBrincat is, he went from a -31 player last year—and our win total, point total wasn't a whole lot different than what he experienced last year—he's a plus player this year.  He added some more plays defensively.  He added some more battles.  He added some more plays on the wall...I think Alex takes a lot of pride in putting pucks in the back of the net, but you could see him buying into what it takes to win and the team game.  So, I'm very happy with Alex."

So, with those remarks in mind, there are a few questions worth considering.  Was DeBrincat's first season in Detroit a disappointment?  How did his production compare to years past?  Do the underlying numbers support Lalonde's conclusion about his defensive contributions?  What is the path to more scoring next season?  Was he good value for the contract he signed last summer?

Let's take a look.

There are lots of ways to slice up DeBrincat's season, but I think the natural starting point is by looking at his five-on-five production.

In 2023-24, at five-on-five, DeBrincat scored 16 goals, gave 17 primary assists and 10 secondary assists for 39 points.  Those assist figures are career highs, while 39 is his second highest ever five-on-five point total (trailing only 2018-19, when he had 44).  However, that goal figure (tied for his fourth highest total in seven NHL seasons) leaves something to be desired.

Already, there's reason to believe that DeBrincat was a more productive player at five-on-five than you perhaps realized, but the fact remains that his goalscoring did not quite match expectations.  

The obvious explainer there is his shooting percentage.  This year, DeBrincat shot 9.7% at five-on-five on 165 shots.  That's roughly in line with what he did last year in Ottawa (a 7.19% on 167 shots), but in '18-19 (again, his most productive five-on-five season to date), he was all the way up at 15.29% shooting on 157 shots.

In truth, DeBrincat's shooting percentage probably belongs somewhere between last year's and that '18-19 high-water mark, but there is also room for encouragement in the fact that he earned more high-danger chances than he did in Ottawa or even in that career year in Chicago.  This year, DeBrincat had 54 high-danger looks at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.  Last year, it was just 35.  In '18-19, it was still only 44.  If DeBrincat keeps creating offense of that quality, it's reasonable to believe he will put more pucks in the net than he did this season.

This year in all situations, DeBrincat was an 11.4% shooter, considerably below his career mark of 15.5%.  Again, there's reason to believe if he had the same opportunities he created this past season again next year, he would convert on more of them.

With that said, there is one area where DeBrincat clearly can improve on his shooting performance.  This year, he hit the net on just 49.2% of his shot attempts in all situations, a career low.  Between the '18-19 and '22-23 seasons, he put between 55.8% and 57.8% of his shots on target.  Getting closer to that number is another way DeBrincat could conceivably increase his scoring a good bit, without creating a different volume or quality of chances than he did in his first year as a Red Wing.

As far as line-mates are concerned, DeBrincat spent more than 200 minutes at five-on-five with four different Red Wing forwards: Dylan Larkin (505:42), Patrick Kane (490:19), Lucas Raymond (434:57), and J.T. Compher (385:52).  

DeBrincat enjoyed a strong goal share with all four of those players—ranging from an outstanding 61.54% with Larkin to a more than commendable 56.67% with Compher.  However, he did not have a greater than 50% expected goal share with any of the four (he topped out at 49.89% with Raymond).  

It's also worth noting that both Kane and DeBrincat were considerably more productive together than apart.  They enjoyed a 57.78% goal share together, while Kane had just a 36.84% goal share without DeBrincat and DeBrincat's was just 38.71% without Kane.  That's potentially an issue if Kane walks as a free agent this summer, but there is still an internal solution.

Both Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond were considerably more productive with DeBrincat than without him.  Larkin enjoyed that 61.54% goal share with DeBrincat, compared to just 37.5% without him (DeBrincat's without Larkin remained up at 58.33%).  Meanwhile, Raymond put up a 56.86% goal share with DeBrincat compared to just 38.89% without him (DeBrincat's without Raymond was still 54.69%).

With all that in mind, it stands to reason that should Kane walk, reuniting the DeBrincat-Raymond-Larkin line that began the season together (and spent a bit of time as a unit down the stretch) would help maximize the production of all three players.

It was on the power play where there was a much bigger gap between DeBrincat's '23-24 production and his career numbers.  Per Natural Stat Trick, DeBrincat had 11 goals, five primary assists, and three secondary assists for 19 power play points.

That's a far cry from what he did last year in Ottawa (11 goals, 13 primary assists, six secondary assists, 30 points) or that '18-19 year in Chicago (13 goals, eight primary assists, three secondary, 24 total points).  

In this case, it's not simply a matter of shooting percentage (though that is certainly a factor) or overall power play efficiency.  This year, DeBrincat was an 18.03% shooter on the power play.  That's not to the level of his ridiculous 25.0% from '18-19, but it's also ahead of '22-23's 13.75%.  Meanwhile, Detroit's power play was also somewhere between last year's Ottawa PP and the '18-19 man advantage of the Blackhawks.  The Red Wings scored 8.70 goals-per-60 minutes (and 8.61 xG/60) with DeBrincat on the ice on the PP this year.  In '18-19, Chicago scored 8.51 goals/60 (and 6.61 xG/60) on the PP with DeBrincat, while the Senators were at 9.14 goals/60 (and 10.56 xG/60).

So, if the issue on the power play was more than just scoring percentage, what else explains DeBrincat's relative lack of production?

One answer might simply be ice time.  In 2023-24, DeBrincat played 238:49 on the power play or 2:59-per-game.  In 2022-23, it was 334:54 and 4:05-a-game.  In '18-19, it was 267:49 and 3:20-per-game.

Detroit finished the season with the third most power play opportunities in the NHL this season and DeBrincat trailed only Shayne Gostisbehere in power play ice time among Red Wings.  Still, perhaps one simple solution to boost his production is just giving him more power play ice time, by keeping him as a fixture on the first unit (which was not the case this year) and by relying on that first unit much more than the second (which was also not always the case).

What about Lalonde's claims about DeBrincat's improvements all over the ice?  Do the numbers support that conclusion?

In a word, yes.  Last year, the Senators conceded 2.82 expected goals/60 and 3.06 actual goals/60 with DeBrincat on the ice at five-on-five.  This year, the Red Wings allowed just 2.72 xG/60 and 2.65 G/60 with DeBrincat at five-on-five.  As Lalonde pointed out, he was a -31 his last year in Ottawa and a +1 this year in Detroit.

To look at his 200-foot influence a bit differently, let's take a look at some charts from Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com.  First, in these two side-by-side graphics, you can see that the Red Wings were a significantly more dangerous team at five-on-five with DeBrincat on the ice than without him.

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 You can also see that he didn't give that offense back in the other direction (i.e. there was no significant difference in Detroit's defense with him on the ice versus without him), so while he might not exactly have been a shutdown, checking-line level defender, his additional offense made the Red Wings a much better team with him than without him.

[gallery ids="1665,1666"]

Again, that's an encouraging reference point heading into 2024-25.

Here, it's worth spending a moment assessing DeBrincat's value relative to the contract he signed upon being traded to Detroit last summer.  This season was the first of a four-year deal with DeBrincat counting at $7.875 million against the salary cap.  How did his production compare to other players in that tax bracket?

DeBrincat was 13th among the 37 skaters who made between $7 and 8 million against the cap in 2023-24 (12th among the 25 forwards).  He was 12th in that group in goal-scoring.

In other words, DeBrincat produced a bit above average for players at his pay-grade, though to really maximize the value of his deal, you'd like to see him approach the production of players like New Jersey's Jesper Bratt (identical $7.875 cap hit, 83 points, 27 goals) or Dallas' Jason Robertson ($7.75 million cap hit, 80 goals, 29 points).

So what does it all mean?

Well, for one thing, DeBrincat was a more productive five-on-five player than you might have realized, and he has a reasonable path to improving that production further by shooting more in line with his career numbers.  Boosting his production further likely involves getting him more looks on the power play.  However, it also must be said that he did take a meaningful step defensively and as a play-driver this year, and continuing that trend would be a massive boon to Detroit's 2025 playoff aspirations.

By pure production (and in particular goalscoring), DeBrincat perhaps fell a bit short of expectations, but the fact remains that his Red Wing career got off to a solid start in 2023-24.  

What he needs moving forward most of all mirrors his team: increased consistency.  Detroit brought in DeBrincat to score more, and, even if DeBrincat himself did not necessarily have a banner year, the desired effect was achieved.  Now, the Red Wings' challenge has to do with improving defensively, and, fortunately for Detroit, there's reason to believe DeBrincat can be part of the solution in that regard.

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