Detroit was a vastly different team with Dylan Larkin in the lineup than without him. What does that say about the Red Wings' needs heading into the offseason?
Detroit was a vastly different team with Dylan Larkin in the lineup than without him. What does that say about the Red Wings' needs heading into the offseason?
"We're just over a 100-point team with Dylan [Larkin] in our lineup," said Derek Lalonde of his Detroit Red Wings at his final press availability of the 2023-24 season. "We're picking first overall without him in our lineup." It was a simple formulation but also a profound one in explaining the painful near miss Detroit's season eventually became.
There's little sense in agonizing over exactly which lost point should have put them over the top and into the playoffs, but for a team that missed out on the postseason by no more than a tiebreaker, it's hard not to point to a 4-10-0 record without Larkin (which could really be stretched to 4-11-0 if you include the Senators game the Red Wings lost in December after he was injured in the first) as the primary cause for the season's eventual disappointment.
"I could not be more impressed on his growth over two years and everything he went through," said Lalonde of his captain. "It's impressive to watch. There's a lot of reasons for me to be optimistic about this group going forward. Him being our captain and him being the type of player he is is probably number one."
When asked about how his team responded to Larkin's absence in March, Lalonde said he would "have to reflect more back on that," perhaps watching back each game from the 2-6-0 run that began with five successive regulation losses. "We should've won more games," said GM Steve Yzerman of Detroit's record without Larkin. "Teams lose their top player all the time, and they find a way to win games."
"It was a tough player to lose when he's playing 20, 22 minutes," said Lalonde. "Not only is he playing 20, 22 minutes, he's driving us for 22 minutes, but again, it's still one player. It's a team sport." In that sentiment, Lalonde encapsulates the challenge of replacing Larkin or even simply compensating for his absence. It's not just that Larkin is Detroit's best player; it's that he's the Red Wings best offensive player and strongest defensive forward too. Without him, there are vulnerabilities at both ends of the rink.
"Collectively, you gotta find a way to win games," Yzerman offered. "If you're not gonna score four and five a game, you better tighten up defensively. I think, whether it's within, continued maturation of some of our young guys...we need to generate the offense."
For a team built on the promise of depth over star power, to struggle so totally in Larkin's absence—even as he was Detroit's unquestioned top player—was humbling. As the Red Wings enter the Yzer-plan's most significant offseason to date, what then is the team-building solution to the fragilities laid bare by Larkin's injury.
At his end-of-year availability, Yzerman was asked point blank about whether the absence exposed a lack of depth down the middle, where Detroit has made significant offseason investments each of the last two summers in the form of J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp.
"I think we do have some center depth, but [what's missing is] offensive depth more so, whether it's at center or on the wings," Yzerman replied. "The other thing it does, it emphasizes if you're not scoring, you better be good defensively." "We missed the offensive production when he was out of the lineup that we need, whether it's another centerman or another impact forward at a different position to offset the loss of the offensive production," he continued.
Compher and Copp are both effective middle six players (whether at center or on the wing), but both of their profiles skew more toward shutdown roles than attacking ones, and Larkin's absence exposed a lack of firepower from the Red Wings forward corps and an inability to overcome that with defensive solidity.
Yzerman did point out that Detroit has also invested in its long-term future down the middle at the last two drafts, saying, "Nate Danielson drafted a year ago, Marco Kasper the year previous to that. We think they're good young prospects. We're really happy with how they're coming. They're not ready to play yet. I'm not ruling anything out for next year. I think in time, we're gonna be real solid down the middle."
That could portend a bright future, but it's far from certain either of those players is ready to be a meaningful contributor at the NHL level next season. The solution? Per Yzerman, "I think we were ninth in goals scored this year, which isn't terrible. But Dylan's out or we lose a significant offensive player, we need more depth to make up for that, and again, we need to be better defensively to compensate for that as well.
Yzerman suggested that, to fortify itself against another Larkin absence next season, the Red Wings will seek an "impact forward" to add to its top six. What type of player might best fill that void?
It's interesting to note Yzerman's phrase "impact" rather than simply "scoring," suggesting that the ideal candidate for the role should not simply be someone who lights up the scoresheet. That outlook comports with the options Detroit did have this season in its top six. Besides Larkin, the five regulars in the Red Wings top six included Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Compher, and David Perron.
In DeBrincat and Kane in particular, Detroit had two compelling offensive profiles at its disposal, but absent Larkin, opponents had a relatively easy time shutting those two scorers out via match-ups. With that and Yzerman's words in mind, it stands to reason that the Red Wings seek a player who can score but will also help maintain defensive solidity in a hypothetical Larkin-less lineup.
Yzerman also noted that player could be a center or wing, but it seems far more likely to be a winger than a center if only because a top-six worthy centerman who brings both offensive pop and an ability to defend is unlikely to emerge within Detroit's price range.
So where does that leave us?
To me, the ideal addition to the Red Wings' top six is a winger in his mid-to-late 20s (i.e. a proven NHLer who isn't in the final act of his career) suited to the team's forechecking style, strong defensively, but capable of pitching in offense too.
In other words, a player in the approximate mold of Colorado's Valeri Nichushkin or perhaps Washington's Tom Wilson. The issue of course is that Nichushkin (or Wilson) is also unlikely to come available this summer. Both those players are also attached to long-term contracts (Nichushkin is signed through 2030, Wilson 2031) that probably aren't optimal for Detroit to take on at this moment in the rebuild.
Instead, Yzerman's challenge will be finding a player who can step into the role those two have grown into as their careers progressed but who can be had at a more reasonable cost. It's not an easy task, but it's one that could go a long way toward bolstering the Red Wings' long-term future up front.
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