Where is Philip Broberg Trending Going Into 2023-24?

Mathew Panchyshyn

Jul 15, 2023, 21:28

Mathew Panchyshyn

Jul 15, 2023, 21:28

Was Broberg the right pick at #8?

Welcome! New or returning readers, the pleasure is mine. My name is Mathew and I write to help get a better analysis on players, taking a look at stuff hardly noticeable in the process of analytics and hockey mechanics. I hope you enjoy my work and by the end, hopefully you also learned something new. Let's get into it.

The Draft till Now

Since being drafted 8th overall in 2019, Philip Broberg was picked by the Edmonton Oilers and that came with some controversy. For better or worse, taking a deeper, more in-depth look is important. Maybe he's not so bad, or maybe he ended up worse.

Collectively, there's much to like about Broberg's game that made sense for him to be picked so high.

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Some worries were things like:

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Ken Holland made a bold decision to pick Broberg 10-17 picks higher than where most scouts had him. Now that we are four years along and Broberg is going into his 3rd NHL season, I'd like to take a look at how he has improved and how he compares to his draft class.

Skipping ahead to today, it's nearly four years exactly after the 2019 draft. Broberg hasn't had an easy journey to the NHL. With the depth of left defense consisting of 1. Mattias Ekholm 2. Darnell Nurse 3. Brett Kulak; its tough for the number 8th overall pick to play his way into a permanent roster spot. Those are all good players I think we can agree. A side note: Broberg isn't a sound defenseman when playing on the right side. Most left shot defenseman struggle too, so it shouldn't be scrutinized that he struggles in that situation.

Mechanically, Broberg has only improved. Not that his posture, skating, or otherwise was anything short of high end, but now he's added considerably amount of strength. Since 2019, he's added +15 pounds of muscle to his already bulking frame.

I no longer notice him consistently falling over or getting pushed off puck battles. For a defenseman, this is highly important. Even still, I expect him to continue to work on it. Currently, he weighs 199 pounds according to NHL.com. I'm happy to see poise, and IQ getting better too which helps his decision making on and off the puck, but his offensive instincts aren't as prevalent as it used to be. He's very good with zone entries but stayed away from that last year. The focus I'd assume was to be better defensively.

Broberg still struggles in his defensive retrievals. That should be his primary focus going into this season. Because he's such a good skater, zone entry, offensive creator and zone entry defender, there really is a high ceiling with it all put together. It's typical for defenseman of that caliber to player 18-22 min a night or more. That's your number 2/3 defenseman on the roster. With further refinement, I do believe he gets there.

For better context, here's how I'd rate Brobergs ability to play each important area of the game when he was drafted vs now: 0 (NHL level) / 5 (Elite level)

2019

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2023

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Comparing Play

Playing in the NHL at 20 y/o is impressive which is exactly what Broberg did. Unfortunately, 33 other players did that in during the same year Broberg did who played equal or more games. 22 of those were from the 2019 draft class and 14 of those were picked after Broberg. Names such as Trevor Zegras, Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, Cameron York, Alex Newhook and more show up.

There is frustration for not picking the likes of Caufield, Zegras and Boldy, who many believe are elite players in the making or already are elite and that frustration is justified. Currently the Oilers are weak on right wing and two of those players play that position. Broberg perhaps is left with the task of reaching that same standard. If that is the case, what does that look like for a defenseman?

Defenseman and forwards are not created equal. It is equally confusing because forwards will win you games but defenseman play more AND are much harder to find at the top end. Getting a top 4D for a top 6F isn't that simple. Luckily I have it already broken down.

+Elite F = Elite D

Elite F = Top 2 D

High top 6 = Top 2/3 D

Top 6 F = Top 3/4 D

Top 9 F = Top 4/5 D

Bottom 6 = Top 5/6 D

How good you believe the likes of Boldy, Zegras and Caufield are will change how good you feel Broberg needs to be for the Oilers to have accurately drafted him...or maybe you have given up altogether. I wouldn't call this fair for Broberg. He neither had a choice at where he was drafted nor had any impact on how good other prospects turn out to be. I see another perspective to it. What value is expected or exceeding expected value at 8th overall? Now that is up for debate and for you to decide. Personally I'd say a #3 NHL defender is exceeding expectations. I'd give big props for the other teams who have exceeded their expected value for the draft choice and even bigger props for the player himself who should be given most of the credit.

Related: Oilers 2023 Off-Season Guide

We are at the point now where we are questioning who is considered how good. Is Zegras really elite? Is Broberg underperforming? How does Broberg match against those picked after him and vs the other defencemen in his draft class? Analytics has a big play in this. Watching the games is good but not everyone has the same view or understands hockey in the same way. People can also see only so much. Analytics breaks things down to measurable understanding and makes it a great deal more accurate without the subjectivity.

Make no mistake, analytics doesn't exclude watching hockey. Instead, it's like getting your vehicle scanned before going into specifics. Makes sense? Awesome! Stay with me, this gets exciting!

In the 2019 draft, there are 6 defenseman who have played 50 or more games:

I will be comparing these six defenders and their success away from the conventional points sheet. For this purpose, I have help from EvolvingHockey which will provide insights into Expected Even Strength Offensive Value (xEVO), Expected Even Strength Defensive Value (xEVD), Expected Offensive Value (xOFF), Expected Defensive Value (xDEF), Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR), Even Strength Offensive Value (EVO), Even Strength Defensive Value (EVD), Offensive Value (OFF), Defensive Value (DEF), and Goals Above Replacement (GAR).

1. Offense

Broberg stands very strong among this group. In 2022-23 Broberg produced well over replacement in all categories. Not only that, he leads all defence among the 2019 draft class in Offense (combo of EVO and PPO) and Even Strength Offense.

Considering the limited minutes Broberg gets and the majority of it (58%) is away from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, this is very encouraging. In addition to that, Broberg's values with 97 (McDavid) and/or 29 (Draisaitl) are stronger than without. Here's his expected goals percentage with and without McDavid/Draidaitl in 2022/23:

Broberg w/o 97 and 29: 57.0% xG%

Broberg w 97: 63.7% xG%

Broberg w 29: 58.5% xG%

Broberg w 97 and 29: 59.5% xG%

Playing for a loaded offensive team like the Oilers helps but Broberg isn't a product of that, he's someone who helps the cause.

2. Defense

Defensively sound is a great thing and that's all you can see from Broberg in the big picture. Once again being good all across the board, and he leads in defense. When Broberg is on the ice, the expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) goes down from 2.60 -> 2.23 for the Oilers.

3. Overall

Overall, no defender helped their team more than Broberg. York was tied based on expected play at 5.2 games above replacement and had played 8 games more, but based on actual play, Broberg lead by a fair margin. Even though players like Moritz Seider, Bowen Byram and York play a top-4 or top pair role, that doesn't mean they are helping their team win and this shows that.

Broberg is on good pace for himself and should be getting 16 - 18 minutes a night in a top-4 role in Edm. With that added time on ice (TOI), I'd also expect these ratings to go even higher. There is still left the question of Boldy, Caufield and Zegras. Yes, let's take a look at them too!

Boldy is a clear winner at this moment. Broberg comes in #2 based on last year's play. There's a good argument to be made that Broberg is keeping up based on impact of play. Considering all of this information, it is important to note that Broberg only played 46 games compared to zegras and Boldy's 82 and 81 games, respectively. Similarly, Caufield also played 46 games.

Going into this year, there is much at stake besides winning a cup. Many see Broberg still as a near bust prospect regardless of the evidence saying otherwise. Can he attain a top-4 role in Edmonton and continue to improve his play? If he does, Broberg would be a great pick at 8th overall. Drafting is hard and scouting is even harder, but I feel perhaps the Oilers got it right with this one. What do you think?