The biggest cause of the Oilers' 0-3 start is a poor shooting percentage.
The biggest cause of the Oilers' 0-3 start is a poor shooting percentage.
It's safe to say not a lot has went right for the Oilers to start the year.
The team's top stars are underperforming, the defence is porous, and the team can't buy a save. They're 0-3 and have been outscored 15-3 over those three games. They're 4-for-9 on the penalty kill. It's not what you want, to say the least.
But the team's biggest issue is temporary. Those other problems are real, to be sure, but scoring on only 3.2% of your shots is going to make everything look a whole lot worse.
Take Saturday's game against Chicago, for instance. The Oilers lost 5-2, but their expected goals were 4.07 to the Blackhawks' 2.56. MoneyPuck's Deserve To Win O' Meter, determined based on both team's xG that the Oilers win that game 71% of the time. Their 6-0 loss to Winnipeg is an Oilers win 56.9% of the time.
All in all, MoneyPuck gives the Oilers 7.62 xG at five-on-five, tied with the New York Rangers for second league-wide. Considering the talent the Oilers have at their disposal, and the fact that they've only scored twice at five-on-five, this trend can't continue all season long.
Every single Oiler other than Leon Draisaitl has scored fewer goals than expected, according to MoneyPuck. That's to be expected with some players. But Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sit at the bottom of the list in goals above expected. That's not a lack of finishing talent, it's a combination of bad luck and good goaltending.
Even Jeff Skinner and Corey Perry, two of the team's three goal scorers, have been unlucky. Skinner's 12 shots are tied for ninth in the league, and his 8.3 shooting percentage would be his lowest since his disastrous 2020-21 on an awful Buffalo Sabres team. His career shooting percentage is 11.2%. Perry, of course, had a goal taken away on an extremely flimsy goalie interference call against Calgary on Sunday.
That's not to say there's nothing to worry about. The team clearly needs to be better going forward, and getting shut down by Petr Mrazek and Dan Vladar isn't as understandable as being shut down by Connor Hellebuyck. But they aren't going to shoot 3.2% all year, and their goalies aren't going to run a .794 save percentage all year. A little puck luck goes a long way.
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