The Oilers' star power continues to offer strong playoff hopes, but goaltending and depth raise critical questions about their ultimate success.
A column in The Athletic on Tuesday, one that compiled a Stanley Cup Checklist for the Western Conference, breaks down how this year’s playoff contenders stack up against each other. The article looks at all the Western Conference playoff teams, ranks them by position and areas of strength and weakness, and evaluates them based on their overall completeness over a four-round playoff run.
There are a few interesting observations when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers.
As expected, the Oilers elite top-end talent means they are capable of beating anyone. However, lingering concerns in net and throughout the depth chart could be the make-or-break of this season's run.
What the Checklist Values and What It Was Looking For
The checklist focused on five core pillars:
- Star power and top-end talent
- Depth scoring
- Goaltending
- Defensive structure
- Balance and durability
Teams are then judged on how closely they match the template of recent Stanley Cup winners.
Oilers’ Strengths: Elite Star Power Still Drives the Bus
No one should be surprised that the Oilers graded out extremely well in the most important category: star power. The core of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman is described as “terrifying” in its ability to take over games.
McDavid’s playoff production—128 points in 75 games since 2022— speaks for itself. He'll be the superstar to watch, especially with Draisaitl potentially missing some of the earlier games. Hyman should be back in time for Round 1, and he provides steady goal-scoring, physicality, and is a special-teams whiz. Bouchard adds high-end offensive value and has proven he's one of the best in the world when the playoffs begin.
Can McDavid and the Oilers handle Vegas in the first round? Photo by;
© Perry Nelson Imagn ImagesHowever, as the article pointed out, there are questions surrounding Draisaitl’s health, and it's unclear if this is one of those situations he can push through. He scored 32 points in 16 playoff games while dealing with a high-ankle sprain in the 2022 playoffs — but his comments on Monday suggest this is different.
Defensively, Edmonton has taken a huge step forward since the Olympic break and the NHL trade deadline. Additions such as Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson have helped tremendously, and the team is bought in to a more sound structure. It's been costing them goals, but the team seems happy with the trade-off, believing the offense will come.
There has also been a boost in depth scoring, with Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, and Jack Roslovic producing at higher rates than expected.
Weaknesses: Goaltending and Depth Remain the Red Flags
Despite the star-driven upside, there are two glaring concerns. Perhaps they aren't so much concerns as they are major question marks. The biggest unknown is goaltending.
Connor Ingram sits at the bottom of Western Conference starters in net rating (-2.6), and he's the lowest-ranked netminder among all playoff contenders the Oilers might play. He'll be the underdog going into every series. However, he's been excellent of late. That perceived weakness could become a strength if he continues to trend in the right direction.
Depth scoring is another concern. Even with flashes from Savoie, Podkolzin, and Roslovic, Edmonton remains unproven in the playoffs. This will be Savoie's first playoff run. Roslovic was often a healthy scratch last season with the Carolina Hurricanes. Podkolzin has played only 22 games (he has 10 points).
When stacked up against the depth on the rosters of other Western Conference playoff teams, it's questionable.
Playoff Outlook: Oilers’ Path Runs Through Familiar Foes
Final seeding in the West is still undecided. Their most likely first-round opponent appears to be a familiar one: the Vegas Golden Knights.
Vegas grades out as one of the most complete teams in the Western Conference, with strong depth, elite two-way forwards like Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner, and solid defensive structure. Not only that, but since John Tortorella took over, they're on a 6-0-1 run. However, their goaltending has been a major weakness, and it's where they're vulnerable.
Other potential opponents include the Utah Mammoth or Anaheim Ducks, both more balanced but lacking Edmonton’s high-end talent. If the Oilers play the Los Angeles Kings, it would be round five. The Kings are not deep and, frankly, are somewhat lucky to be where they are. However, another matchup between these two teams might be pushing it. At some point, the Kings have to get a win, don't they?
Edmonton Is Not the Favorite In Any Matchup
What seems clear from this list is that, for the first time in a long time, the Oilers are not a clear favorite going into any series. They might have the edge depending on who they play, but no one will be a comfortable opponent with what might feel like an easy series ahead.
Edmonton is built to overwhelm opponents with elite talent—but if their top guys are dealing with nagging issues, anything can happen and the teams they'll be playing are all offering a challenge.
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