Is Connor Murphy a “Black Hole” for the Oilers, or Just Stuck in a Tough Spot?

The Oilers are 13-3-3, but defenceman Connor Murphy has become a bit of a lightning rod for criticism. In two recent articles for The Athletic, Allan Mitchell, Sean Gentille, and Dom Luszczyszyn were hard on the blueliner, suggesting he either needs to step up or that the Oilers need a better option to upgrade their second pair.

Mitchell suggests that Stan Bowman may already be looking for a move that would push Murphy down to the third pair. The second Athletic piece pointed to his 35 percent expected goals rate and called him a “complete black hole offensively.”

That’s a harsh label, but it's fair to say that despite the Oilers' excellent record, a 35 percent xG rate means that when Murphy is on the ice, the Oilers generate roughly a third of their quality chances.

Offence was never his calling card, but if he's not elite defensively, is he doing enough?

The context matters when looking at Murphy. Edmonton’s forwards run from elite to weak. Any line with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl is as good as it gets, and Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm get most of those minutes. That leaves Murphy and partner Ryan Shea with the rest of the Oilers' forwards. To say "the rest" hasn't provided much either would be an understatement. 

The tension is that Murphy’s goals-against numbers look fine while the xG numbers look bad. That could mean good goaltending or some luck is covering for a pair that gets outchanced. Or it could mean Murphy is being asked to carry too much with too little help. The samples are too small to say for sure.

Is this on the second line for not providing enough offense? Is this on a player like Jake Walman, who was supposed to be a difference-maker on that second pairing and hasn’t been? Or is this on Murphy, who is slowing down and maybe isn't the best option in the top four?

The Oilers could promote from below with Ty Emberson or Shakir Mukhamadullin. Or Bowman could trade for an upgrade and slide Murphy to the third pair, where a defensive role suits him better. There are options, and fortunately, none of them require Edmonton to panic given their spot in the standings. 

Mitchell believes the Oilers may get a better read on the situation once Matt Savoie returns. He thinks a stronger supporting cast in the top six should quickly show whether Murphy’s numbers are a product of his linemates or a real problem.

Against both the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers, the Oilers were outchanced and outplayed. Their goaltending kept them in games, with Tristan Jarry saving the day against the Flyers. If those performances keep coming but the wins don't, Edmonton may have no choice but to look at where the goals are really being allowed and why the depth offense isn't there. 

When it comes to Murphy, the harsh reality is that he's a depth defenceman asked to hold down a second pair with little offensive help around him. He may not be a black hole, but he isn’t a solution either. The Oilers’ question is whether they can afford to wait and find out.

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