Oilers' Rough Weekend Reveals Important Weakness
The Edmonton Oilers certainly didn't return from the 4 Nations break the way they wanted to.
Alex Ovechkin celebrates one of his three goals against the Oilers on Sunday, February 23rd. (Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)Losing two in a row (three straight going back to before the break) is one thing. Getting outscored 13-6 is another. Getting outshot 66-43 is yet another. But while their 6-3 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday was ugly, Sunday's loss in Washington should set off alarm bells.
The stat posted above is about as damning as it gets. For reference, those seven teams are Toronto, Florida, Washington, Carolina, Winnipeg, Dallas, and Vegas. Their only win in that sample was a 6-3 win over the Golden Knights on December 14th, and since then they've lost once to each of Florida and Toronto and twice to Washington.
This trend obviously has dire implications for the playoffs, where they'll almost certainly have to beat two or three top-tier teams to hoist the Stanley Cup. So, what gives?
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It all starts with the goaltending. The Stuart Skinner/Calvin Pickard tandem has been subpar on the whole: among the 67 goalies with at least 10 games played this season, Skinner is 50th in goals saved above expected (-2.9) while Pickard is 58th (-6.5). Things are even worse against good teams:
In 17 games appearances against playoff teams as an Oiler, Pickard has allowed 6.3 goals above expected. Skinner's numbers are no better: he's allowed 10.2 goals above expected in 14 games against top-ten teams this season.
While goaltending has undeniably been a massive problem against these elite teams, it's not alone. A quick look at the Oilers' stat sheet will tell you all you need to know: only five players on the team have scored more than 30 points, and it's the five players on the top powerplay unit. Obscured by the heroics of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers' secondary scoring has been awful this season.
That's just fine against bad teams when McDavid and Draisaitl can dominate their minutes and everyone else can muddle along until the top six is back on the ice. But it falls apart against elite teams like Washington, who can either contain the two superstars or outscore the Oilers lower in the lineup, sometimes both.
The Oilers have gotten poor goaltending against elite teams, but it hasn't been disastrous. But combine it with a complete lack of secondary scoring, and the Oilers just can't hang with the best of the best.
If this really is a "Cup or bust" season—and it should be—the Oilers cannot afford a Skinner-Pickard tandem or this lack of depth scoring. If they don't find a fix, they'll have a much longer summer than they planned.
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