Pittsburgh and Edmonton are locking in long-term bets over proven production, banking on rising salary caps to mask the high-stakes risk of missing big on unestablished middle-six forwards.
The Pittsburgh Penguins signed Ville Koivunen to an eight-year deal with a $4 million AAV on Thursday. The contract got some attention, if for no other reason than it's a pretty big bet on an unproven player. In some respects, it feels a bit like the bet the Edmonton Oilers made on Trent Frederic, with some slight differences.
While Frederic had more NHL experience, this is actually a pretty sharp comparison — two similar-shaped deals (long-term, term-heavy, cheap AAV bets on middle-six-caliber forwards). At the same time, one could argue these are very different risk profiles.
The deals side by side:
| Frederic (Oilers) | Koivunen (Penguins) | |
|---|---|---|
| Term | 8 years | 8 years |
| AAV | $3.85M | $4M |
| Age at signing | 27 | 23 |
| Track record | Established 4th-line/energy NHL forward, career-high 40 points once, never scored 20 goals | Unproven — 7 points in 39 NHL games, strong AHL production (41 points in 34 games) |
| Timing | Signed as a pending UFA, days before hitting the open market | Signed as a cheap RFA before he ever got to negotiate from strength |
Where they're similar, both GMs had the same idea in mind. They bought term instead of paying up later.
Despite poor play after arriving in Edmonton, Frederic was signed before he would have hit unrestricted free agency, betting big that the team hadn't seen his best yet. In not-so-specific terms, GM Stan Bowman called Frederic a unicorn and decided to lock up a player that was hard to find at what could be a team-friendly deal. Meanwhile, even though Koivunen had a lackluster 2025-26 season, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas is going all in, locking him in before he has a chance to prove he's worth more. Both bets hinge on term being cheap insurance against a rising cap.
Why Are These Bets Similar, But Different?
There are some obvious similarities here. Where they really diverge is the admission that Frederic's deal was more of a bet on a known player hoping he would do what he had already shown signs of doing at the NHL level — hit, block shots, play physical bottom-six minutes. Bowman explicitly justified the signing based on character and identity rather than pure production, calling him a "very unique player" with an "intimidation factor."
The Penguins have no idea what Koivunen is. Josh Yohe of The Athletic writes, "I was told that Dubas sees the Koivunen deal as “low risk, high reward.” Which is to say, the cap is rising to the point that he’s willing to risk losing $4 million annually for eight years if Koivunen is a bust."
The risk with Frederic isn't "will he ever be good" — it's "is a known 4th-liner worth 8 years and $30.8M," and it was immediately flagged among the worst contracts of the 2025 offseason for that reason. Thus far, he's proven the extension to be a mistake. Like Koivunen, the Oilers can bury the deal and hide the contract as the cap increases. That's certainly not what they want.
Frederic has been playing bottom-six minutes and was arguably the least impactful player in Edmonton's lineup through his early run with the team. The Penguins are hoping they didn't just give $32 million to a similarly bad bet.
The biggest difference is that Koivunen's deal is closer to a lottery ticket. There's no established NHL floor yet. Unlike the Oilers, Pittsburgh isn't paying for a known role player; it's paying to lock in upside before it's proven, which is arguably a different and better bet than Edmonton's.
The Penguins don't know what Koivunen is yet. The Oilers, however, have a good sense of Frederic's downside.
If you had to bet on which team regrets its move more, Edmonton's is arguably the riskier one today, since Frederic already has a known ceiling and the early results aren't pretty. There's still time. The hope is that Frederic can change the narrative.
Bookmark The Hockey News Edmonton Oilers team site to never miss the latest news, game-day coverage, and more. Add us to your Google News favourites, and never miss a story.
