One has to wonder if it has been an interesting few weeks for Connor McDavid. Likely not focused on other players' contracts, he's got to be seeing what's going on around the league out of the corner of his eye. While young players in the NHL are being handed millions upon millions of dollars, the world's best player is watching the NHL's next generation set an incredible new bar. This is not to say that what others do matters more than winning, but how can McDavid not be watching this trend in the NHL and thinking about 2028?

This month alone, Leo Carlsson signed for five years and $18 million a year in Anaheim, Macklin Celebrini landed $18.8 million annually in San Jose, and Connor Bedard locked in at five years and $15 million in Chicago. Kirill Kaprizov set the bar earlier this year at $17 million a year over eight seasons. 

Meanwhile, McDavid sits at $12.5 million per season, having taken a team-friendly deal to give the Oilers the best chance of building a solid team around him. 

Instead of chasing the payday he was rightfully due, McDavid re-signed with Edmonton for two years and $25 million — an AAV of $12.5 million, the same number he's carried since 2018. Greatly appreciated by the Oilers organization and its fans, it's a discount by any measure. 

But let's be honest. Several of the league's rising 20-somethings just made his deal look bad. The Oilers are thanking their lucky stars McDavid was so generous, and the Oilers captain is doing fine financially, but just last season $12.5 million looked fair. Now it's starting to look like the biggest bargain in the league. By the time McDavid's new deal kicks in for 2026-27, his cap hit will account for a smaller share of Edmonton's ceiling than at any point in his career. 

So what is McDavid actually thinking as he watches all of this salary cap whackiness unfold?

The early read is that he's not thinking about the money at all — at least not the way Bedard or Celebrini are. Those two are early in their prime, with a decade of leverage still ahead of them. McDavid is 29, entering the back half of his window, and he's made clear through both of his last two contracts that his priority is roster flexibility for the Oilers, not maximizing his own paycheck. He's effectively trying to subsidize his own championship window.

But at what point does watching these numbers change alter his mindset for 2028? That's when his deal is up. The cap is projected to land around $123 million. It could climb above $130 million in no time, even reaching as high as $150 million in the next half-decade. Even a modest raise relative to what younger stars are getting now would push McDavid into a totally new territory. If he doesn't go there, when does he go from team-friendly to foolish?

It's not hard to imagine the internal debate he might be having. On one hand, he understands that legacy and Cup contention matter more to him than topping the salary leaderboard. On the other hand, watching players with a fraction of his résumé sign deals that outpace his own cap hit feels backward. 

So what does his next contract look like? Is it another team-friendly deal? Is it one that's longer term and sets him with a much higher AAV? Or is it another short-term deal that gives him time to take stock of the market and what players are earning?

The likeliest outcome may be a version of both: McDavid taking real money in 2028, finally letting the market catch up to him, while still shaping the term around Edmonton's championship timeline rather than his own bank account. He's shown he'll leave money on the table. The only real unknown is how much longer he's willing to keep doing it and when, if ever, he decides to sign one more massive deal that lasts longer than the new NHL trend. 

He's given the Oilers time. McDavid has been patient. Now, as players zoom past him on the salary pay scale, there comes a point where he'll need to get back in the conversation as one of the NHL's highest-paid athletes. 

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