10 Breakout Candidates Fantasy Hockey Drafters Are Sleeping On

Not every value pick this draft season comes from off the beaten path. Some of the best returns are sitting in plain sight, tied to players fantasy managers already know well but have started to sour on for reasons that don't always hold up under closer examination. 

When the market undervalues a player for reasons that have more to do with narrative than substance, an actual analysis can give disciplined fantasy managers a real edge on draft day.

These ten names all look primed to take a real step forward this season, whether that means a full return to health, a bounce back from an unusually rough stretch, or simply a second act proving last year's breakout was legitimate.

It's easy to forget how good this duo actually is, with injuries the primary reason Hughes isn't being treated as a lock first-rounder. His average draft position has fallen as low as pick 19, which is hard to justify for a player who has posted the seventh-best points-per-game average in the league over the last four seasons, racking up 320 points in 263 games, ahead of names like Kirill Kaprizov, Jason Robertson and Martin Necas, all of whom are going before him. 

Centers are deep this year, but getting a healthy Hughes' 100-point pace and Hart Trophy upside at pick 19 is real value. The same case applies to his running mate Bratt, who is going as late as pick 77 and carries near-90-point upside if Hughes stays on the ice alongside him.

Florida's most dynamic offensive defenseman is looking to put an injury-shortened season behind him after missing 30 games a year ago. A full offseason to heal, combined with a Panthers group that got even more dangerous on the top power-play unit, sets Jones up nicely. 

He'll continue quarterbacking that unit from the point alongside both Tkachuk brothers, a returning Aleksander Barkov and sharpshooter Sam Reinhart. With Brady Tkachuk and Barkov both healthy, Florida's offense as a whole should take a step forward, and few players stand to benefit more than Jones. 

The 31-year-old Texan has cleared 50 points twice in his career and was on pace to do it again last season before injuries got in the way. Given a full slate, 50 points looks like a reasonable floor, with a career year in the 60-point range within reach.

Coming off the board around pick 128 on average, Horvat looks like one of this year's better bargains. Before an injury cut his season short, he was matching his prior year's production, posting 57 points in just 68 games, a pace that would have pushed him past 70 points over a full season. 

Projections now have him settling for around 60 points, a modest bar given the trajectory he was on. Playing alongside a motivated Kyle Palmieri should help as Horvat looks to reestablish himself as a legitimate top-line center, and a return to something close to his 68-point output from his first full season with the Islanders in 2023-24 is well within range if he stays healthy.

A third-round pick who has quietly turned into one of the better value plays on the Kings, Laferriere has racked up 86 points across his last 159 games. Skating alongside Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar has helped fuel that production, but it was the Panarin trade that may have unlocked his best hockey yet. 

Before the deal, the 24-year-old New Jersey native had 26 points in 55 games, a 0.47 points-per-game pace. After it, he exploded for 18 points in 27 games, a 0.67 pace that projects to 56 points over a full season. With Laferriere going as late as pick 145 on average, he's a low-cost bet worth taking to see whether that late-season surge carries over.

Ullmark's overall numbers last season, including a winning record and a goals-against average under 2.75, painted a much better picture than his save percentage, which cratered to a career-worst .891 across a career-high 49 starts. That dip, likely tied in part to a leave of absence for personal reasons, has knocked his draft stock down as far as pick 132, behind 38-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky and Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who could still be dealt into a backup role elsewhere. 

Ullmark enters this season as Ottawa's clear number-one with no real competition, and he'll have the benefit of a healthier blue line after Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jordan Spence and Tyler Kleven all missed at least 10 games last year. A return closer to his career norms looks likely.

After losing 48 games over the past two seasons to injury, the former 60-point center is healthy again and set to lean on an elite supporting cast. It's become fashionable to say Minnesota lacks a true number-one center, but that overlooks Eriksson Ek's track record: from 2022 to 2024, he put up 125 points in 155 games, a pace comparable to a star like Martin Necas over that stretch. 

Last season he posted 51 points in just 70 games, a rate that projects to nearly 60 over a full year. With Marcus Johansson and Mats Zuccarello both gone, Eriksson Ek figures to spend most of his time with Matt Boldy, who is coming off a career season, while seeing more shifts alongside top-ten talent Kirill Kaprizov. 

Even in limited minutes together last season, that trio posted a plus-4 rating over 162 minutes, and the full line with Johansson included was even better at plus-17. Eriksson Ek still finished just outside the top 100 fantasy players a year ago despite missing time, and that finish should be viewed as a floor rather than a ceiling. Going as late as pick 140, he's one of the better values available in the later rounds.

San Jose made fixing its defense a clear priority this offseason, adding Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba and Michael Kesselring after finishing with a bottom-three back end that allowed 3.54 goals against per game a year ago. 

Nobody benefits more from those additions than Askarov. The 24-year-old Russian netminder got his first real shot as a starter last season and looks poised to build on it in his second full year atop the depth chart, still without any real competition for the job. 

Despite that, his average draft position sits as late as pick 127, behind names like 38-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky, Luukkonen and Kevin Lankinen. With a much-improved defense in front of him, Askarov has a real chance to outplay his draft cost by a wide margin.

After being traded from Toronto to Seattle late last season, the 30-year-old undrafted forward finally landed a significant NHL role and made the most of it, posting 14 points in 18 games. 

He slotted in immediately alongside Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle on the top line, a trio that combined for seven goals scored and seven allowed, before finding even better chemistry on the second line with Chandler Stephenson, where the pairing combined for six goals scored against just one allowed. 

This season, with newcomer Mackie Samoskevich projected to join the top line, McMann figures to continue alongside Stephenson and Eberle, who is coming off a strong 50-point season, forming what could be Seattle's most balanced and productive trio. 

McMann averaged nearly a point-per-game after arriving in Seattle, and with an offseason to build chemistry and a full season in a top-six role ahead of him, he could easily push past his projected 44 points into the 50-point range. Going around pick 138 and rostered in just 21 percent of leagues, McMann offers real value late in drafts.

The 21-year-old former first-round pick split time between the NHL and the minors last season but showed real flashes, posting 27 points in 49 games, a 46-point full-season pace, while playing just 16 minutes a night. 

This season, he's expected to slot into a top-line role alongside Mika Zibanejad and see time on the second power-play unit. With a meaningful jump in ice time on the way, a leap into the 50-to-60-point range is realistic if he stays healthy, making him one of the more compelling breakout candidates in this year's pool.

The biggest surprise on Pittsburgh's playoff roster last season was the 25-year-old former 21st overall pick, who found his footing after being dealt away from Columbus, the team that originally drafted him. 

Chinakhov posted 36 points in 43 games with the Penguins, a pace that projects to roughly 70 points over a full 82-game season, all while averaging just 15 minutes a night. A bump in usage could push that production even higher as fantasy outlets currently have him projected for 42 points, which looks conservative given his finish to the year. 

With a full offseason to build on that breakout and a full season ahead of him in Pittsburgh's system, Chinakhov has real upside to be a difference-maker.

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