10 Fantasy Hockey Draft Busts You Don’t Want on Your Roster

Just as important as finding value late in your draft is knowing which names to let go when they come off the board early.

Reputation, name recognition and small sample sizes can inflate a player's average draft position well beyond what the underlying situation actually supports, whether that's a crowded crease, a shrinking role, or expectations that simply outpace what the player has ever proven he can do.

These 10 names are being overdrafted heading into this season, and fantasy managers would be wise to let someone else take the risk.

An underdog story is always easy to root for, but backing the right Bruins winger this season might mean looking past Geekie. Over the past two seasons, the 28-year-old Strathclair, Manitoba native has benefited enormously from heavy minutes alongside David Pastrnak, racking up 125 points in 158 games together.

That arrangement is now in jeopardy following the Peterka trade. Geekie has played some center in the past, but Boston already has that position locked down with Pavel Zacha and Elias Lindholm, meaning the only real path to staying with Pastrnak is beating out Peterka, who brings similar recent scoring production.

Early signs point to Peterka, the new addition, holding onto that spot, and the fantasy market reflects it, with Peterka going roughly 30 picks later on average and ranked as much as 35 spots behind Geekie on some platforms despite the likelihood of getting more ice time alongside Pastrnak. How the top line shakes out to start the season will determine a lot here. If Peterka clicks immediately next to Pastrnak, it could spell a real step back for Geekie's production.

Where there's smoke, there's fire, and Buffalo's known interest in acquiring Connor Hellebuyck suggests the organization isn't fully sold on its current crease situation.

Luukkonen is a perfectly capable option in net, but he's currently going around 115th overall in fantasy drafts, ahead of names like Jet Greaves, Yaroslav Askarov, and further down the board, Lukas Dostal and Linus Ullmark, none of whom carry the same risk of losing their job to a bigger addition.

On top of that, Alex Lyon began cutting into Luukkonen's starts by the end of last season and into the playoffs, and with a contract year of his own on the line, he figures to remain a threat to the crease even if Buffalo doesn't land a bigger name in net.

There's plenty of expectation around Nemec getting a bigger role in Calgary after the Flames added the former second overall pick from 2022. Some believe an extended runway could finally let him show off his prospect pedigree, but the path may not be as open as it looks.

Calgary's right side is crowded, with Zach Whitecloud manning the top pairing alongside Kevin Bahl, while Parekh is set to soak up the bulk of power-play time, leaving Nemec ticketed for the second unit.

Nemec is currently going as high as 143rd overall by average draft position, right in the same range as players like Noah Hanifin, Justin Faulk and Thomas Chabot, all of whom project to have clearer paths to stronger ice time and point production.

Expectations are surprisingly high for the 21-year-old Nobleton, Ontario native, as some outlets are ranking the former third-overall pick from the 2023 NHL Draft as a top-60 player this season, ahead of players like Brayden Point, Connor Bedard and Lucas Raymond, all while Fantilli has never surpassed 60 points in his career.

There is a very real possibility we see the very best version of Fantilli this season, but his draft stock having him go ahead of some of the league's best centers is simply too high. This is also the belief of most drafters, as Fantilli's average draft position is falling regularly 40 picks later. Around that range, Fantilli comes in at a much better price tag, but as a fifth- or sixth-round pick, he's far too expensive.

This one might raise some eyebrows, but plenty of other Hurricanes defensemen saw their roles grow in the postseason while Nikishin's shrank. The 24-year-old Russian import saw his ice time drop from an 18-minute regular-season average down to under 15 minutes a night in the playoffs.

He'll still be a factor on the power play as the quarterback of the second unit and figures to settle into a third-pairing role, but with other defensemen like Chatfield breaking out and playing their best hockey when it mattered most, that shift in usage could carry over into this season.

Nikishin managed just a single point in the playoffs while Chatfield produced eight, and if that gap in trust and ice time persists, it presents a real risk to his fantasy value, especially if the rumors are true and he gets traded elsewhere.

At 34 and entering the final year of his contract, expectations are sky-high for Wedgewood after a spectacular season that saw him post a 31-6-6 record, a 2.02 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage, numbers worthy of Vezina consideration. That's landed him as high as a top-seven goaltender on some boards, with an average draft position to match around 53rd overall.

The concern is age, as Wedgewood is heading into his mid-30s, a stretch where goaltenders typically start to decline, even if recent exceptions like Sergei Bobrovsky's late-30s Stanley Cup runs complicate that narrative. More pressing is the crowded crease in Colorado, where Wedgewood will split time with the younger, capable MacKenzie Blackwood, who could easily take over the starting job if Wedgewood slips at all.

Between the job-security questions, his age and an inflated ranking, Wedgewood looks overpriced next to safer options like Jeremy Swayman, breakout candidate Brandon Bussi, and Jacob Markstrom, who hasn't been at his best in recent years but offers far more stability, all three of whom come off the board rounds later at a much better value.

The hype around the former third-overall pick is captivating, as he'll be given top-six minutes in his first full NHL season after a stellar finish that saw him record nine points in 12 games following his call-up.

But the cost is steep, with some outlets ranking him as high as inside the top 110 players, ahead of established names like Nikolaj Ehlers and Mathew Barzal, both of whom cleared 70 points last season.

Expecting a 19-year-old to top 70 points in his rookie campaign isn't realistic, and even his average draft position of 140th overall is too rich, going off the board ahead of players like Barzal, Joel Eriksson Ek and Dylan Strome, all of whom will more than likely finish with more fantasy points.

It's hard to find a true bust candidate on a Stanley Cup contender like the Stars, but the 35-year-old veteran, coming off a down year, presents a reasonable case. Duchene's production slipped noticeably, falling from a point-per-game 82-point season in 2024-25 to just 45 points in 57 games last year.

Advances in training have allowed plenty of players to remain effective well into their late 30s, but Duchene's bigger concern is usage, as he's shifted from a top-six role to the middle and bottom six, now centering the third line. The move gives Dallas much-needed lineup depth, an area that hurt them against teams like Colorado and Minnesota last season, but it likely limits Duchene's minutes and, with them, his fantasy reliability.

Drafters picking in his range would be better served looking at names like Gabriel Landeskog, JJ Peterka or, depending on where he falls, Sam Bennett, all of whom offer a stronger fantasy case.

This offseason saw the Oilers' defense take a step back with Darnell Nurse finally shipped out of town to the San Jose Sharks. Edmonton will now lean on a second pairing built around offensive defenseman Jake Walman, who has had his struggles in his own zone, alongside stay-at-home presence Connor Murphy.

The third pairing is even more of an unknown, pairing decent offensive contributor Ryan Shea, newly arrived from Pittsburgh, with Shakir Mukhamadullin, a 2021 first-round pick who hasn't quite panned out and is now on his third team, though he has shown some defensive reliability.

Both Shea and Mukhamadullin posted solid defensive numbers on losing teams, but how the unit gels together, how new bench boss Mike Babcock reshapes the defensive structure, and whether more proven options were left on the table all make this group a significant question mark heading into the season.

The 20-year-old breakout star floored everyone with his rookie production, posting 60 points across a full 82-game season. We still believe Sennecke is, of course, an elite player, however, some platforms have him ranked as high as inside the top 75 players.

His average draft position tells a different story, with managers routinely letting him fall to the 9th or 10th round, just outside the top 100 picks. That gap is still assuming he will take another step forward, but the added pressure is real. With Mason McTavish now with the St. Louis Blues and Terry sidelined to start the season, Sennecke's line goes from one of three strong units a year ago to one of just two lines carrying the offensive load early on.

Opposing teams have also had a full offseason to study him, and clubs around the Pacific in particular will be looking for ways to slow him down now that he's no longer a surprise. We expect another solid, 50-plus point season from Sennecke, just not the step forward most are expecting.

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