I know right now you don't care, but soon enough you're gonna think of Robert Thomas, and how good he will be... I've been talkin' in my sleep, pretty soon they'll come to get Robert Thomas, yeah, they're takin' him away.
St. Louis Blues
43-33-6, 92 Pts. 5th Central, 16th Overall.
2.85 GF/GP (24th), 3.02 GA/GP (15th), 18.0 PP% (24th), 79.1 PK% (18th)
Top scorer: Robert Thomas. 82 GP. 26-60-86, 27 PPP, 876 Face-off wins, 20:58 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +4500
Current: +6000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 0.7%. Handle: 0.8% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
It was Robert Thomas all night and every single night. Thomas broke out in a huge way in 2023-24, finishing 21st in league scoring, tied-17th in even-strength points, third in face-off wins and 12th in minutes played per game. He was just one of 28 forwards in the league to average over 20 minutes, and also finished 19 points ahead of the Blues' second-highest leading scorer, Jordan Kyrou, while recording a plus-9 rating on a team that finished with a minus-11 goal differential.
Thomas emerged as a bona fide No. 1 playmaking center whom the Blues can build around. He may not shoot the puck a lot and he may not be very physical, but he doesn't need to shoot a lot to score 20 goals and he's an excellent source of assists. Thomas was one of the 2023-24 fantasy season's best value picks and breakout stars.
(Apologies for the emotional subheading and if you're not a fan of Matchbox Twenty).
The rest of the roster was a little unwell. (Last reference, I swear). Kyrou's overall game improved, but it didn't translate to better offensive numbers, and he dropped from six goals from the previous season. Pavel Buchnevich scored 60 points for the third straight season but it was far off from the point-per-game pace in the preceding two seasons. Brayden Schenn is definitely slowing down a little bit, Jake Neighbours was good for two months (November and March) when he scored 15 goals in 30 games and the power play was so poor that Torey Krug's team-leading 13 power-play assists wasn't enough to offset his team-worst minus-31 rating.
The bright spots were in net where Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer put in strong seasons to keep the Blues in playoff contention. Binnington, in particular, is undervalued in fantasy because the Blues aren't considered a very strong team (ie. no wins for Binnington), but by most statistical standards he was one of the better goalies in the league. His play is trending up again following a few rough seasons after winning the Cup in 2019.
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
The Blues are still in the midst of figuring out their core. It starts with Thomas, who is a great fantasy option for assists and points, and Kyrou, who's good for goals and shots. Buchnevich is good for a little bit of everything, and he could be one of the rare fantasy forwards who has triple-position eligibility.
How high is Thomas' ceiling? I asked Lou Korac, editor of the THN St. Louis, if Thomas could be a 100-point player:
-"[Thomas] certainly has the capability but don't consider it disappointing if he doesn't... Thomas will be part of all aspects of what the Blues will try and accomplish, and it certainly will give him every opportunity to thrive. I wouldn't put it out of reach for him to be the first Blue since Brendan Shanahan with 100 points but it's not far-fetched to say he will be a consistent point-per-game player."
But after that, the forward group isn't very enticing. Neighbours will need to shore more all-round offensive skill to be more relevant in fantasy, except maybe in leagues that only count goals. There's a ton of middle-six talent, starting with Brandon Saad, who can score 20 goals but does little else, and younger players still trying to figure out what they can be at the NHL level, including Kasperi Kapanen, Alex Texier and Dylan Holloway, whom the Blues acquired via an offer sheet to the Oilers.
The defense doesn't offer much more. Colton Parayko offers 200-block, 100-hit potential in banger leagues, but his scoring has dipped and he's used more often as a streamer for peripheral stats than a season-long hold. Justin Faulk is interesting if he gets to quarterback the top power play, and he most likely will with Krug out for the season, but he's also only scored double-digit power-play assists just twice in his career, and both times were with the Hurricanes. Scott Perunovich has to win a roster spot first before he's given any fantasy consideration as a potential low-tier power-play specialist, and Philip Broberg, acquired along with Holloway via offer sheet, is more of a steady but unexciting defender who doesn't have much fantasy value because he doesn't do anything particularly well, much like Nick Leddy.
2024-25 Projected Lineup
(updated Oct. 7, 2024)
Even Strength
Dylan Holloway - Robert Thomas - Jake Neighbours
Pavel Buchnevich - Alexandre Texier - Jordan Kyrou
Mathieu Joseph - Brayden Schenn - Kasperi Kapanen
Nathan Walker - Radek Faksa - Alexei Toropchenko
Nick Leddy - Colton Parayko
Philip Broberg - Justin Faulk
Ryan Suter - Matt Kessel
Jordan Binnington - Joel Hofer
ex: Brandon Saad, Zach Bolduc, Pierre-Oliver Joseph, Scott Perunovich
Injured: Torey Krug (ankle surgery, out for the season), Oskar Sundqvist (knee, no return date set)
Power Play
Buchnevich - Thomas - Kyrou - Neighbours - Faulk
Texier - Schenn - Holloway - Kapanen - Broberg
Sleeper: Jordan Binnington, G
Binnington drives everyone mad — especially himself, it seems — but the reality is he's a solid, reliable goalie in fantasy in a position rife with inconsistency. Last season, Binnington ranked 12th in total goals saved above-average at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com, and he also ranks fourth in total starts (115), fifth in saves (3,262) and fifth in total minutes played over the past two seasons. The Blues fly under the radar a lot, so it's very possible to get Binnington in the middle to lower rounds, and that's really good value.
Breakout: Joel Hofer, G
Kind of weird to have the starter be the sleeper and breakout be the backup, but I do think goaltending is perhaps the Blues' biggest strength. If Hofer plays well, the Blues will find starts for him, which could lead to an even bigger split of the shares. It could be significant enough that Hofer is worth rostering as a tandem with Binnington, otherwise I suspect Hofer will be an excellent streamer.
This is a big contract year for Hofer, who could take over as the starter in three seasons' time when Binnington's contract is up. Or, Hofer's play could be so good that he attracts the attention of another (hopefully better) team in need of a young netminder.
Bounce-back: Justin Faulk, D
Faulk was limited to just 60 games last season, scoring a career-low two (!) goals and 30 points on a so-unlucky-it's-baffling 1.5 percent shooting percentage. Though he's not considered a premier power play quarterback, I think he gets a good chance he scores 50 points, just as he did in 2022-23. With the potential for 100 blocks and 100 hits, I think Faulk can be a very sneaky under-the-radar option.
The main competition will be Perunovich, but he seemed far from ready to take on such a big role last season. As Lou Korac, editor of the THN St. Louis says:
-"Perunovich will get that chance, but he has to show he is not as predictable as simply being a pass-first guy. There's a reason he doesn't have an NHL goal yet; he refuses to shoot the puck and that has to change to become more unpredictable. His passing can be impeccable, but in order to have success, you have to have a mix of pass-shoot."
Bust: Brandon Saad, LW
I think 20 goals is what you should expect from Saad, but there's little upside for more. Last season, Saad needed to shoot 18. 1 percent to score 26 goals. His shot volume has declined significantly since his days as a top-six staple on the Blackhawks, and he's never offered much in terms of peripherals. Unlike, say, Brayden Schenn, whose offensive numbers are dipping and may continue to dip, Saad doesn't offer any hits or face-off wins. Even as a streaming option, I fail to see how Saad can provide much value when he doesn't score a goal.
Goalies
I go into Binnington and Hofer a little more in depth above, but I like this position for the Blues. The hard part will be determining the rotation, and it looks like it'll be a battle throughout the season, although Binnington has the edge as the incumbent. The competition is not a bad thing, as it could push both goalies to perform even better than they did last season.
With Hofer in a contract year, THN St. Louis editor Lou Korac also reminded me that Canada is looking for a starter for the upcoming 4 Nations Face-off, giving Binnington plenty of motivation to play well.
Jason's Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Robert Thomas, C - 25-53-78
Pavel Buchnevich, LW - 28-44-72
Jordan Kyrou, RW - 32-38-70
Brayden Schenn, C - 21-29-50
Jake Neighbours, RW - 27-22-49
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
77. Robert Thomas, C
125. Jordan Binnington, G
135. Jordan Kyrou, C/RW
141. Pavel Buchnevich, C/LW
216. Brayden Schenn, C/LW
269. Brandon Saad, LW
314. Joel Hofer, G
409. Justin Faulk, D
411. Jake Neighbours, LW/RW
433. Colton Parayko, D
522. Nick Leddy, D
713. Scott Perunovich, D
841. Philip Broberg, D
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