2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

Jake Guentzel will join the century club.

45-29-8, 98 Pts. 4th Atlantic, 13th Overall.

3.51 GF/GP (5th), 3.26 GA/GP (22nd), 28.6 PP% (1st), 83.3 PK% (5th)

Top scorer: Nikita Kucherov. 81 GP. 44-100-144, 53 PPP, 306 Shots, 21:40 TOI/GP

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +2000
Current: +2200 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 1.3%. Handle: 0.4% (as of August 22, 2024)

There are career seasons and then there are career seasons. Nikita Kucherov just put one in for the ages, becoming one of two players to ever reach the century mark in assists. It was the third time Kucherov notched more than 80 assists, more than any other player; Joe Thornton have Connor McDavid each only accomplished the feat twice. 

Even though Kucherov offers little outside of the scoring categories, his point production was so far ahead of everyone else's that it wouldn't have mattered if he didn't make a single hit or block any shots. As the Art Ross winner, literally nobody was a better scorer than Kucherov.

It overshadowed a second consecutive 40-goal, 90-point campaign for Brayden Point (who's still somehow underrated), Steven Stamkos' seventh 40-goal campaign and a strong bounce-back from Victor Hedman, who improved his point total to 76 from 49 in the previous season, and a career-high 75 points for Brandon Hagel.

The Lightning are buoyed by their top players in fantasy. This was most apparent when they acquired Anthony Duclair, who immediately scored 15 points in 17 games. In the odd time Anthony Cirelli or Nick Paul shared the ice with their star players, their fantasy values increased accordingly. 

The big downers were Mikhail Sergachev, who was limited to just 34 games, and also Andrei Vasilevskiy. Sergachev was poised for a special season coming off a 64-point campaign in 2022-23, even though he had shared power play duties with Hedman, and Vasilevskiy never looked like he was able to get into a groove following off-season back surgery. 

The big change — nay, it actually feels monumental — is swapping out their long-time captain for Jake Guentzel. There's no replacing Stamkos and his one-of-a-kind one-timer on the power play, but it does seem like a more natural fit. Stamkos was a center but moved to the wing out of necessity (more than anything), and Guentzel was a natural left winger with the stronger two-way game that could complement Kucherov a lot better. 

Will this move lead to more points for Kucherov and Point? 

I'm not sure, but by moving to such a good offensive team, it wouldn't be surprising to see Guentzel set career highs across the board. He's the rare already-awesome fantasy player who might step into elite status on the Lightning, and a 40-goal, 90-point season is very, very attainable. You could make the argument that Guentzel has become an elite left winger, venturing into the same territory as Kirill Kaprizov. 

But the Lightning's continued commitment to big money to their best players means there's little left for the rest of the lineup. Their decision to cut some costs also meant trading Sergachev and his massive contract to Utah, which puts more pressure on Hedman to continue to be a point-per-game franchise defenseman and for J.J. Moser to take over on the second power play. 

While Kucherov, Point, Guentzel and Hedman remain elite fantasy options, and Hagel following somewhat close behind, the rest of the lineup doesn't offer a ton. Cam Atkinson and Conor Sheary may score points in the right situation, but they're streamers at best. Nick Paul can offer broader category coverage, but his offense also depends on how he's deployed. 

For the Lightning, stick to the usual names and hope they can all stay healthy. Their entire projected top line may score close to 300 points combined. 

(updated Oct. 3, 2024)

Even Strength

Jake Guentzel - Brayden Point - Nikia Kucherov
Brandon Hagel - Anthony Cirelli - Cam Atkinson
Mikey Eyssimont - Nick Paul - Conor Sheary
Zemgus Girgensons - Luke Glendening - Mitchell Chaffee

Victor Hedman - J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh - Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg - Nick Perbix

Andrei Vasilevskiy - Jonas Johansson

ex: Conor Geekie, Gage Goncalves, Darren Raddysh

Power Play

Guentzel - Point - Kucherov - Hagel - Hedman

Paul - Cirelli - Chaffee - Sheary - McDonagh

I'm not sure if Atkinson will remain their second-line right winger all season, but he started camp in that spot, so it's his to lose. Atkinson is 35 years old and clearly in decline. Once a 40-goal scorer with high shot volume, Atkinson scored just 13 goals in 70 games on 175 shots with the Flyers last season. 

You could make a bet that Atkinson bounces back, and that sharing the ice with the Lightning's elite offensive talent will give him a big boost, but it's unlikely to put Atkinson back in the conversation for fantasy. I think Atkinson will have streaming value, which is way more than what he did last season, but consider him a deep, deep sleeper.

I'm a big fan of Moser's game. It's simple and effective, and he's the closest proxy to Sergachev. Despite only modest power play time, Moser has racked up 57 points in 162 games over the past two seasons, along with 179 hits and 249 blocks. If he plays on the first pairing with Hedman and gets to quarterback the second power play unit, it's conceivable Moser hits 40 points. Along with his potential for 100 blocks and 100 hits, he'll be a serviceable defenseman in deep leagues or a good streaming option.

The Coyotes have a much lower profile than the Lightning, but I think this is the season we learn how steady and reliable Moser can be. 

It was just a bad season for Sheary, and arguably the worst in his nine-year career. After nearly scoring 20 goals in each of the two preceding seasons, Sheary scored just four goals in 57 games last season and averaged less than a shot per game. The Lightning don't have many options when it comes to the cap, but they've kept Sheary around to see if he can bounce back. 

Statistically, Sheary's season was so poor that he's an obvious candidate to revert to the mean. His shot volume and shooting percentage were well below what we were used to seeing, and he's being put in a position to succeed, too, taking shifts with Hagel and Cirelli in camp. 

(Between Sheary and Atkinson, though, I'm not sure who is going to have the better season). 

I can understand why the Lightning brought back McDonagh, but in his age-35 season, I think we're going to continue to see his numbers dip. He scored 32 points last season with the Preds, but that was with a shockingly good offense where everything seemed to go in for the Preds. McDonagh's only real upside in fantasy is blocked shots, considering he doesn't rack up assists, shoot the puck or dish out very many hits. McDonagh's got the name recognition but not the fantasy value anymore.

Vasilevskiy should be a top-five starting goalie, having (presumably) fully recovered from back surgery. He missed the first couple months of 2023-24 and never looked quite right, yet still managed to win 30 games for the seventh (!) straight season. I suspect Vasilevskiy will be a workhorse goalie this season and will challenge for the Vezina. Even zero-G enthusiasts have to admit that Vasilevskiy is one of the few elite goalies that can be relied upon every season, barring injury.

I'm not sure there's much confidence in Jonas Johansson, but even with a mediocre .890 SP he still managed to tally 12 wins. The Lightning are so good at providing goal support that poor performances by their goalies can be overcome. Johansson should be a popular streaming option throughout the season, but know full well that the save percentage and goals against will never be top tier due to his ability.

(based on 82 games)

Nikita Kucherov, RW - 40-92-132
Jake Guentzel, LW - 42-57-99
Brayden Point, C - 44-55-99
Victor Hedman, D - 13-62-75
Brandon Hagel, LW - 23-40-63

3. Nikita Kucherov, RW
23. Brayden Point, C
30. Jake Guentzel, LW
44. Victor Hedman, D
46. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G
92. Brandon Hagel, LW/RW
227. Conor Sheary, LW
328. Nick Paul, C/LW
399. Anthony Cirelli, C
403. Mikey Eyssimont, C
422. Jonas Johansson, G
471. Ryan McDonagh, D
478. Erik Cernak, D
529. J.J. Moser, D
609. Cam Atkinson, RW

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