Who would've thought a team with Alex Ovechkin would be stronger on defense than offense?
Washington Capitals
40-31-11, 91 Pts. 4th Metro, 17th Overall
2.63 GF/GP (28th), 3.07 GA/GP (17th), 20.6 PP% (18th), 79.0 PK% (19th)
Top scorer: Dylan Strome. 82 GP. 27-40-67, 22 PPP, 697 Face-off wins, 17:57 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +10000
Current: +6600 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 2.5%. Handle: 0.9% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
I'm still kind of in disbelief that the Capitals somehow made it. They were awful on offense, very average on defense, a complete bore to watch on most nights and, if not for Charlie Lindgren, they would've been closer to contending for the lottery than the playoffs.
Alex Ovechkin looked mortal with "just" 31 goals, his lowest pace since 2016-17, and finished with sub-300 shots for the second straight season. You know how they say Father Time is undefeated? Well, it looked more convincing than ever last season that Ovechkin was going to be his next victim.
Beyond Ovechkin, only two other players managed to score at least 20 goals: Dylan Strome, who showed last season was no fluke and scored 60 points for the second straight season, and Anthony Mantha, who had a nice bounce-back season but ended up being trade bait and shipped off to the Knights.
John Carlson also had a great bounce-back season after playing just 40 games in 2022-23, and nobody played more minutes per game in the entire NHL than him. With an increase in shooting volume, blocked shots and finishing tied-16th in scoring among defensemen, he was the best fantasy option on the Capitals last season.
It was a bit of a barren wasteland otherwise; Connor McMichael had a nice bounce-back season but 33 points won't catch anyone's attention in fantasy, Tom Wilson failed to score 20 goals again, and even the more reliable vets, including T.J. Oshie and Max Pacioretty, had disappointing seasons due to injury.
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
The Caps added some big names during the off-season, chief among them Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jakob Chychrun.
Dubois will slot in as the No. 2 center behind Strome and, talented as he is, the fact that the Kings moved on so quickly after signing him to a big deal is worrisome. Dubois' reputation as a lazy forward was further substantiated after he dropped from 63 to 40 in points and 205 to 146 in shots following his move from the Jets. He's a frustrating in fantasy, too, because he has the potential to be a multi-category threat with points, shots, hits and face-off wins. The Caps will do well if Dubois can bounce back, but no one's convinced.
The addition of Chychrun will take a load off Carlson's shoulders, but the power play is still Carlson's to run. Chychrun never fit in well with the Sens, though it's unlikely he replicates the numbers he had with the Coyotes. The biggest loser in all this, however, is Rasmus Sandin, who again gets pushed down the depth chart, perhaps as low as No. 4 behind Matt Roy.
It's ironic that a team with arguably the best goal scorer ever in NHL history is being fashioned into a defensive team. (This makes them really uninteresting in fantasy). The offense is not expected to be good without a bona fide playmaking center, and Ovechkin is at his best when someone is setting him up and not having to create his own chances. This will cap the Caps' offensive potential, no pun intended.
(Side note: The Caps' Cup odds according to BetMGM improved significantly over the summer. Oddsmakers typically know more than anyone, so clearly they like the moves the Caps made over the summer. I think that means we should try to take a more optimistic view on their players, including Dubois. More on him later.)
Projected Lines
(updated Oct. 4, 2024)
Even Strength
Alex Ovechkin - Dylan Strome - Andrew Mangiapane
Connor McMichael - Pierre-Luc Dubois - Tom Wilson
Sonny Milano- Hendrix Lapierre - Aliaksei Protas
Brandon Duhaime - Nic Dowd - Taylor Raddysh
Jakob Chychrun - John Carlson
Rasmus Sandin - Matt Roy
Martin Fehevary - Trevor van Riemsdyk
Charlie Lindgren - Logan Thompson
ex: Ivan Miroshnichenko, Alexander Alexeyev, Ethan Bear
LTIR: T.J. Oshie (back), Nicklas Backstrom (hip)
Power Play
Ovechkin - Strome - Wilson - Dubois - Carlson
McMichael - Lapierre - Mangiapane - Sandin - Chychrun
Sleeper: Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW
Look, I know what I said about Dubois. But the upside is just so tantalizing in multi-category leagues. In leagues that count face-off wins, having LW eligibility is going to be huge. The optimist in me says Dubois can return to his 60-point, 200-shot form because if the trade from the Kings doesn't give him a stiff reality check, I'm not sure what will. If Dubois cannot bounce back and plays as poorly as he did with the Kings last season, we can stick a fork in him in fantasy forever.
Breakout: Connor McMichael, C
McMichael made the team as a 21-year-old in 2021-22 but spent the following season in the AHL because he just wasn't quite ready, though the silver lining is winning the Calder Cup. He's made great strides since then, and last season scored 33 points in 80 games with the big club. He saw time in both the top six and on the power play, and he'll likely do so again this season.
A little older, wiser and definitely more experienced, McMichael represents the first wave of the Caps' incoming prospects. We can throw Hendrix Lapierre's name in here as well, though I think McMichael will play higher in the lineup.
Bounce-back: Alex Ovechkin, LW
I think last season was a bit of a downer for Ovechkin. His shooting percentage was lower than we had expected, and had he not started off so slowly — he scored just nine goals through his first 44 games — he might've scored 40. He's now just 41 away from tying Gretzky, and he's going to be extra motivated.
Bust: Sonny Milano, LW
Maybe this pick's too easy. Pro-rated, Milano was on pace to score 25 goals despite averaging less than 13 minutes a game and averaging a shot per game. Don't get sucked in by his sparking 1.29 goals scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5; Milano was great for a single month when he scored seven goals in 13 games in March, and that was pretty much it. With the addition of Andrew Mangiapane and Taylor Raddysh, I don't even think Milano will be worth streaming.
Goalies
This will be an interesting battle all season. Because Lindgren backstopped (literally) the Caps into the playoffs, he'll be the incumbent. As a late bloomer (he turns 31 in December), I do wonder if Lindgren is a flash in the pan, but clearly the Caps saw something in him long ago to give him a long-term contract even though he had done little to prove it.
I'd be surprised if Lindgren finishes top 10 in Vezina voting again, and there's enough red flags (no track record, namely) that I would shy away from him in drafts. He also had some really crazy splits; he had a .954 SP and 1.39 GAA in his 25 wins, six of which were shutouts, but in the 18 games where the Caps lost, he had a .852 SP and 4.60 GAA. He was either brilliant or awful, and the reality is he's somewhere in between. Keep in mind, too, that the Caps offense will not be bailing him out very often.
The bigger intrigue is Thompson, who took some parting shots at those who believed he was a product of the Knights' tight defensive structure. He was traded because he wanted a chance to prove himself, which he didn't get because the Knights seemed to prefer Adin Hill, and I like a goalie who's motivated to prove everyone wrong.
The case against Thompson is exactly as he hinted — that he's a systems goalie and not one who relies on talent or skill. I wrote more about him at length previously, but I'll soften my stance a little bit because the Caps' defense looks stronger and they should do a much better job at limiting high-scoring chances. Despite being behind Lindgren on the depth chart, I lean toward Thompson ever so slightly. Both goalies are in a contract year.
Jason's Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Alex Oveckin, LW - 42-31-73
Dylan Strome, C - 23-36-59
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C - 21-32-53
Connor McMichael, LW - 18-34-52
John Carlson, D - 7-39-46
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
26. Alex Ovechkin, LW
120. Dylan Strome, C
167. Tom Wilson, RW
168. John Carlson, D
172. Logan Thompson, G
190. Jakob Chychrun, D
211. Charlie Lindgren, G
218. Andrew Mangiapane, LW
224. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW
248. Taylor Raddysh, RW
554. Rasmus Sandin, D
595. Aliaksei Protas, C
606. Connor McMichael, C
609. Sonny Milano, LW
699. Hendrix Lapierre, C
794. Ivan Miroshnichenko, LW
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