2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Winnipeg Jets
With a star player at every position, including arguably the league's best goalie in Connor Hellebuyck, the Jets offer some solid options in fantasy.
Winnipeg Jets
52-24-6, 110 Pts. 2nd Central, 4th Overall
3.16 GF/GP (15th), 2.41 GA/GP (2nd), 18.8 PP% (22nd), 77.1 PK% (21st)
Top scorer: Mark Scheifele. 74 GP. 25-47-72, 18 PPP, 603 Face-off wins, 20:11 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +2200
Current: +2800 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 0.8%. Handle: 0.4% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
Looking back, it was a little shocking the Jets were that good. Their offense was middling with only one 70-point player in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor missed 17 games.
More often than not, the Jets were a frustrating option under Rick Bowness in fantasy. Nikolaj Ehlers averaged less than 16 minutes per game again, Gabriel Vilardi was hurt after a promising start and Cole Perfetti was benched in favor of less heralded veterans.
The key? Connor Hellebuyck, who put forth a spectacular season, winning his second career Vezina and first Jennings Trophy, and also Josh Morrissey, who proved his 2022-23 breakout season was no fluke. Despite a shooting percentage that was declined by nearly 50 percent, he still managed to pump out 59 assists thanks to excellent even-strength play. That makes Morrissey one of the most reliable defenseman in fantasy with significant upside if the Jets can get their power play to click.
The one thing that the Jets offered in spades was hits, including captain Adam Lowry, who was a great source of face-off wins, and a triumvirate of defensemen in Neal Pionk, Brenden Dillon, and Dylan DeMelo. Depending on the situation, they all carried some streaming value during parts of the season.
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
We can repeat this ad nauseam for nearly every team, but the Jets have to stay healthy. A 40-goal season for Connor is possible if he stays healthy, even though he's frustratingly did it once in his career. A healthy Vilardi could also push the Jets offense to new heights, and it'll certainly make Hellebuyck's job a lot easier, not that he really needs help anyway.
Two names of particular intrigue this season: Ehlers and Perfetti.
Bowness did a fantastic job with the Jets, but his refusal to play Ehlers and Perfetti no doubt negatively impacted their fantasy value. Without them, the Jets don't have any secondary scoring, so it's imperative that new coach Scott Arniel starts to lean on them.
Ehlers, in particular, has been frustrating in fantasy and the coaching change should end the spell. His possession metrics are among the league's best and he's a creative playmaker; the knock against him is that he sometimes freelances a little too much for the coaches' liking. But, at some point, especially if Vilardi or Connor miss time again, the Jets must lean on them in a bigger capacity.
Fantasy managers may want to take one final chance on Ehlers (in a contract year) before giving up on him completely. I think there's point-per-game upside if he gets 18 minutes per game and PP1, and Perfetti has a lot of value in keeper leagues. He's spearheading a group of young prospects coming up the system, including Brad Lambert, who will battle for a top-six spot in camp.
THN Winnipeg editor Carter Brooks on Ehlers:
"Under Scott Arniel, Nikolaj Ehlers WILL average over 16 minutes a night. Yes, it is paramount that Ehlers stays on the ice. More Ehlers ice time is directly related to more Winnipeg Jets offensive chances and in turn, more goals for. Unfortunately, I do not see Ehlers putting up 70 points for the first time in his career...
He hadn't played a full 82 games since 2017-18 due to injury, so the probability of him topping 80 games and operating at nearly a point-per-game rate is rather unlikely.
I estimate he will still produce a strong 60-some-odd points again in a top-six role, but his spot on the team's second power play unit will take away some additional points on the man advantage. He is in a contract year and will be looking to lock up something long-term based on a strong offensive output."
2024-25 Projected Lineup
(updated Oct. 3, 2024)
Even Strength
Kyle Connor - Mark Scheifele - Gabriel Vilardi
Nikolaj Ehlers - Vladislav Namestnikov - Cole Perfetti
Nino Niederreiter - Adam Lowry - Mason Appleton
Morgan Barron - Rasmus Kupari - Alex Iafallo
Josh Morrissey - Dylan DeMelo
Dylan Samberg - Neal Pionk
Haydn Fleury - Colin Miller
Connor Hellebuyck - Kaapo Kahkonen
ex: Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, Dylan Coghlan
Injured: Ville Heinola (ankle, no return date set), Logan Stanley (knee, out four weeks as of Sept. 25), David Gustafsson (day-to-day)
Power Play
Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi - Ehlers - Morrissey
Perfetti - Namestnikov - Niederreiter - Iafallo - Pionk
Sleeper: Vladislav Namestnikov, C/LW
The big battle at camp will be the second-line center spot between Namestnikov and Lambert. They're two very different players at two very different places in their careers. Lambert's NHL journey is just starting after being picked in the first round in 2022, while Namestnikov is entering his 12th NHL season.
Given that head coach Scott Arniel seems to be relying on his veterans, at least to start the season, it's hard for me to envision Lambert as their No. 2 center. Both him and Namestnikov will find it hard to win face-offs, but it's a spot Namestnikov is comfortable playing, and by taking care of the unglamorous parts of the game, it'll free up Ehlers and Perfetti to create offense with the puck. Even by just sharing the ice with them, Namestnikov should have some offensive upside. It won't be much, but in deeper leagues, Namestnikov might be a good option due to his usage, especially with some PP2.
Breakout: Cole Perfetti, C/LW
Perfetti will no longer have the shackles. Bowness was really hesitant to use Perfetti last season, even sitting him as a healthy scratch. Though the Jets and Perfetti both professed some love for each other, Perfetti settled on a bridge deal and he'll have to prove his worth.
With increased ice time, a steady top-six role with Ehlers playing on the same line, Perfetti's in a really good situation. It wouldn't be surprising to see him set career highs across the board.
THN Winnipeg editor Carter Brooks on Perfetti:
"Cole Perfetti will be Winnipeg's No. 2 center behind Mark Scheifele. He began carving out his role last season, but suffered a setback under Rick Bowness - who tended to go with an older lineup in crunch time. Perfetti, who just signed a two-year deal with Winnipeg, will now look to solidify his role as the team's second center in his fourth NHL campaign, and get back to the first half of last season, where he had stretches of four goals in three games and a five-game goal-scoring streak."
Bounce-back: Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW
Injuries have robbed Vilardi of a breakout in consecutive seasons, first with the Kings and then last season with the Jets. Though he doesn't shoot the puck very much, he's proven to be a very efficient finisher (career 17.3 S%) and meshes well on the top line with Connor and Scheifele. Even with the small sample size, we can see that Vilardi's also an excellent finisher on the power play, and over a full 82-game season should have no problems scoring 30 goals. He just needs to stay healthy.
THN Winnipeg editor Carter Brooks on Vilardi:
"Gabe Vilardi operated at roughly a .75 point per game pace last season. Sure, he had stretches where he was hot and stretches where he was cold, but when paired with the right linemates, he delivered - both at even strength and on the power play. I would look to see a career-high 65-70 point, 82-game campaign this season for Vilardi."
Bust: Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW
Once a reliable 20-goal scorer with the potential for 100-plus hits, Niederreiter is coming off his worst offensive performance in four seasons. Part of that is age, but the other is usage; he skated just 15 minutes per contest last season, and his scoring has dipped while the hits have gone up.
The Jets will likely keep their third line with 'El Nino' and Lowry and Appleton intact, which means scoring will not be their biggest priority. Without the goals and only the hits, Niederreiter's fantasy value has significantly diminished.
Goalies
It's pretty simple — this is Hellebuyck's net. He's one of the few elite workhorses in the league and even zero-G enthusiasts must agree that he might be worth taking in the early rounds. With guaranteed 50-plus starts and a strong defense in front of him — no Rick Bowness, however — there's little doubt that the perennial Vezina candidate will be a top fantasy goalie.
What's more interesting is who gets the scraps. The Jets signed both Kaapo Kahkonen and Eric Comrie, who returns for his third (!) stint with the club to be the backup. Kahkonen likely takes the job barring a horrendous showing at camp; Comrie was the third-string option with the Sabres last season and his career number just aren't very good: 24-26-2, .893 SP, 3.38 GAA.
Kahkonen, meanwhile, has played at least 33 games in each of the past three seasons. We won't discuss much because the last two seasons were spent mostly with the Sharks, who were one of the worst teams ever in the cap era. Obviously, Kahkonen's going to get more support with the Jets and his numbers will improve, but it's also unlikely he sees much action with how much they lean on Hellebuyck. At most, Kahkonen (or Comrie) will be a streaming option.
Jason's Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Kyle Connor, LW - 42-39-81
Mark Scheifele, C - 28-47-75
Gabriel Vilardi, RW - 29-39-68
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW - 25-40-65
Josh Morrissey, D - 11-50-61
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
25. Kyle Connor, LW
39. Connor Hellebuyck, G
58. Josh Morrissey, D
84. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW
88. Mark Scheifele, C
162. Cole Perfetti, C/LW
174. Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW
245. Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW
250. Adam Lowry, C
315. Neal Pionk, D
360. Vladislav Namestnikov, C/LW
490. Eric Comrie, G
624. Kaapo Kahkonen, G
900. Brad Lambert, C
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