25-46-11, 61
points (8th Central, 31st overall)
2.73 GF/GP, 26th; 3.56 GA/GP, 31st
24.9 PP%, 7th; 79.3 PK%, 14th
Key losses: None
Key additions: LW Andre Burakovsky
Expected lineup:
Ryan Donato
– Connor Bedard – Andre Burakovsky
Teuvo Teravainen – Frank Nazar – Tyler Bertuzzi
Ilya Mikheyev – Jason Dickinson – Sam Lafferty
Landon Slaggert– Nick Foligno – Oliver Moore
Alex Vlasic
– Sam Rinzel
Wyatt Kaiser – Artyom Levshunov
Kevin Korchinski – Connor Murphy
Spencer Knight – Arvid Soderblom
PP1:
Teravainen – Bedard – Bertuzzi – Donato – Rinzel
PP2: Moore – Nazar – Burakovsky – Vlasic – Levshunov
5-on-5:
Is Connor Bedard going to get any help? Somehow, I don’t think Andre Burakovsky is the answer. The Blackhawks averaged a league-low 24.5 shots per game last season and ranked 25th in goals for per game at 5-on-5. Burakovsky is a capable playmaker but he’s entering his 30’s and averages 1.66 shots per game (135 over a full 82-game season).
He’s a capable playmaker and he can help set up Bedard, but the better idea is to find another player who can take some of the burden when it comes to scoring goals. Last season, no Blackhawk had more than 200 shots, with Bedard (195) and Ryan Donato (182) coming closest.
We’ve seen enough of Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi to designate them as better-than-average, middle-six role players. There are too many inconsistencies in each of their games to be reliable scorers on a nightly basis. Bertuzzi, in particular, benefits from playing the minutes he does on a team that’s really thin; nearly half of his total points (46) came on the power play (20), and his even-strength points (26) is tied for 247th in the league. Among forwards who scored 26 even-strength points, only Valeri Nichushkin played more minutes per game, but he played only half the season.
There are two forwards who can really provide the Hawks offense with a boost: Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore. The Hawks clearly believe in Nazar to give him a seven-year contract with only 56 games of experience under his belt, and he certainly comes with some pedigree as a first-round pick and having already proven he’s capable of excelling in the AHL. He’s slotted in as the No. 2 center Bedard, but what ultimately worries me is the lack of strength, experience and face-off ability; it’s a lot to ask of Bedard and Nazar when they’re starting on the ice at a clear disadvantage in every draw. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects Bedard and Nazar to finish first and third in team scoring, respectively.
Moore is interesting; he’s an excellent playmaker but still very raw and inexperienced, and it’s tough to see where he slots in the lineup. He was arguably the most effective playing with Bedard (52.6 5v5 CF% in 31:54 TOI); it’s a very skilled pair but they will need someone to hunt down pucks and create space for them. Where he plays in the lineup will be interesting to see in training camp. From a fantasy standpoint, Nazar is clearly the better option while Moore is a non-factor until he can secure a top-six role.
Defensively, this is a talented group but still very raw and will likely being a bottom-five defensive team. Artyom Levshunov gets a lot of press, but in fantasy I would focus on Alex Vlasic, their best all-round defender, and Sam Rinzel, who showed very well at the end of the season (5 assists in 9 games, 23:22 TOI/GP) and has the best skillset to be their PP1 QB. Connor Murphy is a streaming favorite because of his ability to stuff the score sheet with blocks and hits, but his minutes have been declining and will continue to do so as the Hawks usher in a younger blue line.
Power Play:
This is the part where the Hawks don’t really have to worry about because Bedard is so effective in the offensive zone. He had subpar talent with him all season on the power play but still managed to rank tied-19th in the league in power-play points. As much as ex-head coaches Luke Richardson and Anders Sorensen were derided for not being able to generate offense, the Hawks were actually quite effective on the power play.
The Hawks will likely stick with the four forwards they had last season – Bedard, Bertuzzi, Teravainen and Donato – and then adding Rinzel at the point. They’ll cobble the second unit from whatever they have left, starting with Nazar and Burakovsky.
As soon as Bertuzzi loses his spot on the power play, he carries little fantasy value. Teravainen is the better offensive player so his floor his higher, while Donato can provide in other categories for added value. Still, beyond Bedard, it’s hard to justify rostering any Blackhawk for a full season in standard leagues.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.