50-26-6, 106
points (2nd Central, 5th overall)
3.35 GF/GP, 3rd; 2.71 GA/GP, 6th
22.0 PP%, 17th; 82.0 PK%, 4th
Key losses: C/LW/RW Mikael Granlund, LW Mason Marchment, RW Evgenii Dadonov, D Cody Ceci
Key additions: C Radek Faksa
Expected lineup:
Jason
Robertson – Roope Hintz – Mikko Rantanen
Jamie Benn – Matt Duchene – Tyler Seguin
Sam Steel – Wyatt Johnston – Mavrik Bourque
Oskar Back – Radek Faksa – Colin Blackwell
Esa Lindell
– Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley – Ilya Lyubushkin
Lian Bichsel – Nils Lundkvist
Jake Oettinger – Casey DeSmith
PP1:
Robertson – Hintz – Rantanen – Johnston – Harley
PP2: Benn – Duchene – Seguin – Bourque – Heiskanen
5-on-5:
The Stars lost some depth over the summer no one is expecting the Stars to take a step back. They stumbled late in the season with a seven-game losing streak and ranked just 13th in goals for per game at 5-on-5 with Mikko Rantanen in the lineup, but any notion of ill fit were disposed in the postseason after another long playoff run. The talent at the top is arguably the best in the league and they still have three lines that can score.
The biggest change is not having Peter DeBoer behind the bench following a third straight exit in the conference final. The Stars were very good under DeBoer, and it’s worth noting they preferred quality over quantity; they ranked 14th in shots per game but they were really good at getting scoring chances in the slot and converting them. Per NHL EDGE, they ranked in the 93rd percentile in high-danger shots on goal and 87th percentile in shooting percentage, putting them in the 99th percentile in high-danger goals scored.
It'll be interesting to see what Glen Gulutzan does behind the bench. This will be his second stint with the Stars after 12 years, though this version definitely features a lot more talent. His two seasons with the Flames offered a mixed bag; the underlying numbers were good and the young players improved, but they were disappointing overall and produced below-average results on offense. They were much better at generating chances in Gulutzan’s second season, but still really poor at finishing. The good news is all the Stars’ top players have historically been excellent finishers, so it would be shocking if the Stars don’t finish with a top-five offense.
The Stars are also the rare team that provides both quality and quantity, with Wyatt Johnston slated to center the third line but remains an excellent fantasy asset with a 70-point floor. He’s an overqualified third-line center and on another team could play as high on the depth chart as a 1B center. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects the Stars to finish with five forwards – one more than last season – scoring at least 60 points with Rantanen playing a full season in victory green.
On defense, the gem is Thomas Harley, who is a good bet to finish with more points than Miro Heiskanen. Harley’s game is more offensively inclined, and it allows the Stars to play Heiskanen in purely matchup roles.
Power Play:
This is really where the Stars were supposed to shine but were frustratingly average. It was their worst performance in six seasons, but it’s also worth noting the Stars just aren’t very good at drawing penalties. Over the past five seasons, the Stars have drawn the fourth-fewest (!) penalties excluding the Kraken, who’ve only played four seasons. When you draw so few penalties, it magnifies the missed opportunities. Case in point, the Stars went 0-for-7, 0-for-6 and 0-for-5 in three games last season.
Under Gulutzan, who ran the Oilers power play, this is one area where the Stars should really improve. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Stars power play took a huge step back following Joe Pavelski’s retirement – no one was better at tipping point shots – but Steve Spott, who ran the power play under DeBoer, is also no longer with the Stars.
The Stars don’t have a blue-line threat like Evan Bouchard, but Harley is more than capable of moving the puck and I suspect a lot of chances will be generated down low. Rantanen’s size and skill should help, and Robertson’s skating isn’t as big of a detriment if he’s just staying near the goal instead of having to move around a lot. Having Johnston on the top unit, despite playing on the third line, should bump his fantasy value if fantasy managers are worried about deployment and linemates.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.