A list of five players who should perform much better in the second half of the 2023-24 fantasy hockey season.
Alex OvechkinAlex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals
The points are already starting to come. From November to December, Ovechkin scored just 0.5 points per game and, so far in January, has scored six points in five games. It's abundantly clear Ovechkin is no longer a top-tier fantasy option, especially for goals and hits, but there's an opportunity to recoup some value if you've held onto him all season or traded for him as a buy-low candidate.
Ovechkin's more of a specialist now with 12 of his 27 points scored on the power play, but he's still one of the league's best in that regard. His usage on the power play will never change, and even if he doesn't score, his shots are going to create a ton of rebounds. I think not having a proper set-up man, and with defenses focusing on stopping his one-timer, has stopped Ovechkin from scoring goals like he used to, but the assists will be there.
From an analytics point of view, Ovechkin certainly has room for a potential scoring surge. He's always performed much better than his expected goals; this season, he's shooting a very, very poor 5.8 percent and he's scoring 7.75 fewer goals than expected at 5-on-5, the 15th-highest difference in the league among forwards, according to naturalstattrick.com.
It's worth noting that Ovechkin's ice time is trending down. After averaging more than 19 minutes from October to December, he's averaging 17:37 in January. Less seems to be more; a little less ice time may help Ovechkin stay fresh and it also allows the Caps to be more selective with their deployment. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues.
Jonathan Drouin, LW, Avalanche
Two major components that can determine a player's fantasy value: linemates and playing time.
In both regards, Drouin has hit the jackpot playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon, who's ranked first in most fantasy leagues, and averaging well over 21 minutes per game due to the Avs' lack of quality depth.
On pace for 48 points, this would be Drouin's best season since his second year with the Habs in 2018-19. He's already well on his way to a strong second half after scoring just six points in 20 games in October and November, and at times played as little as 10 minutes or sat as a healthy scratch.
Since then he's scored 18 points in 21 games.
Dawson Mercer, C/RW, Devils
It's been a really difficult season for the Devils, to say the least. With Nico Hischier struggling to score points and Jack Hughes out week-to-week, it's setting the stage for a much-improved second half for Mercer.
I'm not confident Hischier will find his offensive game (he looks less than 100 percent healthy), and Hughes' rest-of-season fantasy value will depend on when he returns. After averaging less than 17 minutes and failing to score a point in eight games in October, Mercer has scored 21 points in 32 games and averaging roughly two shots and 20 minutes per game in January.
Top-six minutes, and lots of it, should push Mercer's production way up.
Rickard Rakell, RW, Penguins
No one had a tougher first half than Rakell, who was on a 17-game goalless drought through the first two months. He was averaging less than 16 minutes per game after scoring 28 goals last season, and he was expected to be a huge part of the Pens' aggressive push as their Stanley Cup window closes.
There's just no way a player as effective and smart as Rakell could go the entire season in such a slump.
Kudos to the Pens for sticking with Rakell, who's now a fixture on Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel's line. Since December, Rakell has scored 10 points in 12 games and, like Drouin in Colorado, he's getting tons of playing time, averaging more than 20 minutes per game.
Jamie Drysdale, D, Flyers
It'll help Drysdale's fantasy value just to get away from the Ducks. Ignoring his injury history over the past few seasons, a move away from a crowded blueline with plenty of young offensive defensemen to Philly, who lacked a right-handed skilled defenseman, means Drysdale will get optimal deployment.
John Tortorella has been quite effusive in his praise for Drysdale, and in one presser described him as a rover. That's music to the ears of any fantasy manager; among the league's best rovers are Cale Makar and Brandon Montour, and it basically means Drysdale will be given free reign to wheel and deal with the puck as he pleases.
Drysdale has already score two assists in two games for the Flyers and his fantasy value is trending way up.
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