Brandon Montour: Buy or Sell?

The Kraken needed to do something big to shake the team out of its malaise and take another leap forward. After eliminating the defending Cup champion Avalanche in the 2023 playoffs, the Kraken finished sixth in the Pacific and miss the cut-off by 18 points. 

For years, GM Ron Francis had preferred to stay quiet, foregoing the big-name hunting strategy employed by the expansion Knights. The Kraken were slow and steady, but sometimes it felt like they were missing the boat, and it wasn't like ownership was strapped for cash. 

So when free agency opened in July, I felt something had to give. And, wow, did the Kraken give a lot. 

At 30 years old and posting one season where he scored more than 37 points, Brandon Montour got a huge bag, netting $50 million over seven years. The Panthers weren't going to be able to match that, and by moving to the Kraken, Montour also gets the chance to be their top right-hand option.

(As an aside, this reeks of a contract that may not age well, considering Montour's entering his 30's and his playing style can take its toll). 

The Kraken head into the 2024-25 season with the projected defensive pairs:

Vince Dunn - Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak - Brandon Montour
Ryker Evans - Will Borgen

This gives the Kraken a lefty and a righty on each pairing, with Dunn-Larsson staying intact as their top pair. Oleksiak and Borgen spent most of the previous season together, but the addition of Montour means Borgen might get pushed down to play with Evans. 

The Kraken can go nuclear on offense with Dunn-Montour and have a matchup pairing with Oleksiak-Larsson, too; what we've been seeing this summer with defensemen is the ability for teams to have different combos to give coaches some flexibility. Utah did something similar with their re-vamped offense, acquiring lefty Mikhail Sergachev and righty John Marino in separate deals.

The key question is how the move affects Montour's fantasy value. With a Yahoo ADP of 90.3, Montour was the 17th defenseman off the board. It was a lofty pick that made sense; Montour was one of just eight defensemen who scored 70 points, adding 107 PIM, 242 shots and nearly 100 blocks and hits. He was slated to be one of the best defensemen in banger leagues heading into 2023-24. 

But his season ended up being riddled with injuries, and despite only a slight reduction in ice time, Montour scored just 33 points in 66 games (pro-rated 41-point pace), offering a fraction of the value fantasy managers had expected. 

Does a move to the Kraken put Montour back on track to replicate his brilliant 2022-23 season?

First, it's worth noting that the advanced stats for Montour's disappointing 2023-24 season aren't quite, well, disappointing. Sure, his 5v5 shooting percentage and individual points percentage (IPP) declined, according to naturalstattrick.com, but given his previous track record, it shows a lot of room to bounce back.  

His shooting percentage was over one full percent lower than his previous two seasons and his IPP was closer to the lower end of his career average, but his possession metrics still showed someone who was able to control the play and regularly outshot his opponents with CF% and xG% both over 50 percent.

What does that tell me? That Montour's play didn't slip as much as his stats would suggest, and his production was a reflection of poorer luck and perhaps some ill-effects of a surgically repaired shoulder that kept him out in the first month of the season.

If that's the case, the major issue that will affect Montour's fantasy value will be his deployment. 

Over the past two seasons, Montour has been the Panthers' favored power-play quarterback, skating 73.3 percent of their total PP minutes, and nearly double Aaron Ekblad's total minutes. Playing PP minutes is key since half of Montour's assists over the past two seasons (46 of 82) were scored on the man advantage.

Last season, the Kraken primarily used Dunn on the power play, who skated 58 percent of their power play minutes. He will be Montour's biggest competition, and while there's space for both of them on the top unit since they don't shoot from the same side, the Kraken have often preferred to have two units. 

Justin Schultz was the quarterback with the other unit, and it's worth noting he was a right-hand shot. It's likely that Dunn and Montour, who becomes the natural replacement for Schultz, will quarterback two different units, with Dunn skating a bit more on the power play as the incumbent No. 1 option. 

With fewer power play opportunities, and on a roster that doesn't feature any elite scorers, Montour is going to find it very, very hard to replicate his 2022-23 numbers. I'm even willing to call that season an anomaly; it needed two things to go right for Montour, and both of them — some good luck and tons of quality minutes — certainly did. 

Over the past two seasons, Montour has scored 5.02 PPP/60, according to NHL.com. If the Kraken get somewhere around 400 TOI PP this coming season (411:04 in 2023-24), and Montour plays 45 percent of the total minutes, we can expect him to score around 19 points on the power play. 

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fukdh0EXW4U[/embed]

There is some guesswork at play here with Dan Bylsma taking over for Dave Hakstol.  While Hakstol favored a more systematic approach given the Kraken's balanced but unspectacular lineup, Bylsma's teams have often favored a very aggressive offense. Montour was at his best when Paul Maurice gave him free rein to skate the puck up the ice, and perhaps the Kraken's coaching change will help put Montour in that position again. 

I'm willing to bet that Montour scores around 40 points, with 50 at the higher end of the scale. It's no longer elite point production, but remember, too, that blocks and hits tend to be more repeatable as it relates more to playing style than puck luck, and Montour should continue to be a good source of them. He has yet to have a 100 block, 100 hit season, but he's come close plenty of times and he'll certainly play tons of minutes for the Kraken. 

How many points will Montour score in 2024-25? 

Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss!