Erik Karlsson will surely boost the Penguins' offense, but what does it mean for the rest of the players who were involved?
Surely, you’ve heard it by now. The Penguins added Erik Karlsson in a blockbuster three-way trade, landing the reigning Norris Trophy winner from the Sharks, with some help from the Habs.
It involved nine players switching addresses, with Karlsson arriving in Pittsburgh on Tuesday and re-uniting with former Sens teammate and current Pens staff, Jason Spezza. Needless to say, the fantasy implications are potentially huge.
The Penguins power play just became scary good again
Special teams was not a strong suit for the Pens last season. Despite having both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin healthy for all 82 games – which had never happened before, by the way – the Pens ranked just 14th in the league with the man advantage. Consistency was a big problem, including a woeful 0-for-9 performance against the Devils in late December, an inexcusable performance against a divisional foe.
Since Crosby and Malkin’s first season together in 2006-07, the Pens have historically been very good on the power play, ranking third in the league at 20.6 percent, trailing only Alex Ovechkin’s Capitals and Steven Stamkos’ Lightning. The Pens have fallen on the wayside in recent seasons, finishing outside the top 10 in three of the past four seasons.
Offense has always been part of the Pens’ DNA, from Mario to Jagr to Sid and Geno. They’ll never punch their way to the Cup, though they’ve certainly had some excellent role players. As far as what Karlsson brings to the table, he certainly fits, even if he’s not exactly the right piece for a team whose biggest deficiencies last season were lack of quality depth, and poor play on the defensive side of the puck and in net. Make no mistake, the Pens are better now than they were prior to the big trade.
Last season, Karlsson tied for 10th among defensemen with 27 power-play points, and since entering the league in 2009-10, no one has scored more than Karlsson’s 273. There were a few lean seasons with the Sharks, but sharing the ice with Brent Burns will do that. Even factoring a regression, Karlsson has the ability to be a point-per-game defenseman, still putting him in the top five among defensemen in fantasy.
The trickle effect of Karlsson means we can expect teammates on the top unit to see a spike in power-play points. Crosby will have a good chance to finish with double-digit power-play goals for the first time in five seasons. Rickard Rakell, who finished with a career-high 11 power-play goals last season, or Bryan Rust, who scored only two power-play goals, will also see improved numbers.
They’ll be pretty good at even strength, too
There’s a misconception that Karlsson is a power-play specialist. Take away Karlsson’s points with the man advantage and it tells an even better story: first in the league among defensemen with 74 even-strength points, 25 more than the next player (Vince Dunn), and first with 481 even-strength points since 2009-10, just one of three defensemen with over 400. The Pens ranked 21st with 168 goals scored at 5-on-5, and that number should improve.
Whoever gets paired with Karlsson at even strength – either Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson – will start showing up on the fantasy radar. Last season, Jaycob Megna and Mario Ferraro were Karlsson’s defensive partners, and Karlsson’s impact was stark.
Megna scored 12 points with the Sharks, a career high, with Karlsson notching a point on half of those scoring plays. Do Graves and Pettersson, neither of whom have scored over 30 points, reach that milestone in 2023-24? In deep leagues that count hits and blocked shots, those points can be very meaningful and elevate Graves and Pettersson’s fantasy values.
Kris Letang will likely take a back seat
The Pens have long preferred to run one defenseman on their power play. Playing both Letang and Karlsson on the top unit while Jake Guentzel misses the start of the season will be an interesting experiment, but if there’s only going to be one, it’s going to be Karlsson.
At full strength, we’re looking at a power play that will feature Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Rakell and Karlsson. That leaves Letang with the second unit, or playing the occasional shift with the first unit, and it means Letang will see his offensive production dip across the board.
That’s good for the Pens because it ensures Letang will stay fresher for the playoffs and gives them two solid pairs at even strength. But it also spells the end for Letang as a top-75 pick in fantasy, who averaged 0.64 points per game last season, the second-lowest since his breakout 2010-11 season.
The Sharks are… a team
The upside for Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman is the promise of increased playing time and a chance to cash in one more time when their contracts are up in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The acquisition of Granlund, Hoffman and the fantasy-irrelevant Jan Rutta simply serve as a bridge for the Sharks’ next era, and their focus should be on trying to draft Mack Celebrini next summer.
Hoffman is the better fantasy option because he can be a consistent scoring threat, never averaging less than 0.5 P/GP. He can be a good waiver-wire option in a pinch, but he’s also struggled to stay in the lineup and has not scored 20 goals in three straight seasons. He’s a top-six player on what may be the worst team in the league.
Granlund tanked his fantasy value after a lackluster follow-up to a 64-point season with the Preds when Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen had unsustainably good, outlier seasons. Both players have since been bought out. Granlund has no scorers to pass to and offers no discernible value in fantasy beyond playing multiple positions, a true jack-of-all-trades but master of none.
The Habs keep adding value
Bit by bit, the Habs keep getting better. In essence, they swapped two roster players and netted a second-round pick. Jeff Petry shores up the blue line but his role will be very different this time around and his 40-point seasons from 2017-21 are likely done. He has plenty of value in banger leagues with his ability to get shots on goal and rack up hits and blocked shots, but the power play duties will remain with Mike Matheson.
Casey DeSmith crowds the crease but he’s the odd-man out with Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault as the incumbents. DeSmith’s stats are misleading; he was an unreliable backup last season and the Pens were comfortable going with Alex Nedeljkovic as the backup even though he had a horrendous .895 SP and spent much of the season in the AHL. The Habs’ goalies are barely streaming options at this juncture.
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