Is Matvei Michkov Worth Drafting in Fantasy?
The Flyers' top prospect, drafted seventh overall in 2023, has put ink to paper and arriving in the NHL a couple years earlier than expected.
The Flyers didn't need to make a splash in free agency. They just needed to ensure that the youth movement continues and stay focused on the bigger picture.
That's why signing Matvei Michkov, one of the most highly-regarded young players in the 2023 draft class, was the best move they could've made all summer.
This is certainly a nice surprise. Michkov was under contract in the KHL for two more seasons, clouding his ETA to North America. For a minute, the Flyers' future foundation seemed to be on slightly shaky ground after a top prospect, Cutter Gauthier, refused to sign and ultimately traded to the Ducks.
It would've been nice to bring in both Michkov and Gauthier, but one is better than none. In Michkov, the Flyers potentially have an elite game-changing offensive dynamo who can join the rush and play opposite Owen Tippett. A lefty-righty combo with Michkov and Tippett, playing on their off-wings if they so wish, would be terrifying to defend against on the counter-attack.
(Unfortunately, it's debatable if Morgan Frost, their best playmaking option at center, can even be a top-six center.)
There's no question in keeper/dynasty leagues, Michkov is a top-tier option. In what could end up being a supremely talented class, Michkov's skill level was on par, if not better in certain aspects, than the three other forwards drafted ahead of him not named Connor Bedard. His contract with the KHL, which was terminated two years early to facilitate signing with the Flyers, some mystery due to the lack of viewings in international competitions despite his excellent junior league numbers, and a Lindros-esque demand preference for his NHL destination, saw him go lower than his raw talent would dictate.
Given Michkov's potential and the way the Flyers are trending, the odds are pretty good that he'll be a first-line player on a pretty good team a few seasons down the road.
The trouble is gauging Michkov's fantasy value right now. He was excellent in U18 international competitions and 2022 World Juniors pre-competition play, but Russia was barred from participating in the 2023 World Juniors and Michkov did not get the chance to face elite international competition in his age group. Not many outside of Russia had really seen him play. What we have to go on are his numbers in Russia's junior league, which were exceptional.
Byron Bader of HockeyProspecting.com, who had ranked Michkov third in 2023 behind Bedard and Fantilli, and publishes work on player projections, left us with this jaw-dropper:
We should not decry if Michkov if he fails to ever live up to this lofty potential — how many can? — and Bader was quick to point out another scenario:
But the odds are still in Michkov's favor. Just for curiosity's sake, here are the rookie stat lines for the players Bader mentioned.
Evgeni Malkin (age 20): 78 GP, 33 G, 52 A, 85 Pts, 80 PIM, 16 PPG, 40 PPP, 242 shots, 19:10 TOI/GP
Kirill Kaprizov (age 23): 55 GP, 27 G, 24 A, 51 Pts, 8 PPG, 13 PPP, 157 shots, 18:18 TOI/GP
Vladimir Tarasenko (age 21): 38 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 Pts, 3 PPG, 75 shots, 13:25 TOI/GP
Nikita Kucherov (age 20): 52 GP, 9 G, 9 A, 18 Pts, 3 PPG, 102 shots, 13:07 TOI/GP
Alex Ovehckin (age 20): 81 GP, 52 G, 54 A, 106 Pts, 21 PPG, 52 PPP, 425 shots, 21:37 TOI/GP
Michkov will turn 20 in December, with two full seasons of KHL experience under his belt. The variance in the production of the players above are huge, but certainly Michkov came with more pedigree and hype that either Kucherov (58th overall pick in 2011) or Tarasenko (16th overall pick in 2010).
We'll axe Kaprizov's comparison, too, because he was already widely accepted to be one of the world's best players while playing in the KHL, and also because he was quite a few years older.
That leaves Malkin and Ovechkin, and if we're looking at a point-per-game rookie season, Michkov has immense fantasy value in both redraft and keeper/dynasty leagues.
Only five (!) players in the cap era have averaged a point-per-game or better (min. 25 GP): Ovechkin, Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Mathew Barzal. Artemi Panarin was close at 0.96 P/GP, while Bedard finished with 0.90 P/GP.
Bedard's Yahoo ADP was 33.5, which meant he was getting picked early in the fourth round in 10-team leagues. Had Bedard played a full season, he would've finished top 50 in league scoring with 73 points, and factoring in how early he must've been drafted in keeper/dynasty leagues, it feels appropriate.
Look, if we're getting 70 points from Michkov, I wouldn't mind being criticized for taking him that early. Clearly, there's a ton of talent there, and the best fantasy GM's tend to be ahead of the curve when spotting new talent on the horizon. (Trust me, there are worse early-round picks out there).
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u7qEnASloM[/embed]
But how does Michkov score 70 points?
When it comes to rookies in fantasy hockey, there is one stat that trumps everything: ice time.
Let this be a reminder that John Tortorella is the Flyers' head coach, and while I think he's excellent at developing young players, and amenable to playing an up-tempo scoring style despite his reputation for stamping out offensive swashbuckling — ironically what Michkov is prone to do — he does not just give anyone ice time.
Michkov will be under a microscope and his season will not roll along seamlessly. This is a new league in a new environment and there will be things Tortorella will want to teach him the hard way. That means there will be nights Michkov plays 18 minutes, and there will be times he plays eight, and there will be times you wonder why he's not at least playing on the power play.
Michkov is playing on a better team with better players, but from a fantasy standpoint he's at a disadvantage to, say, Macklin Celebrini in San Jose. Young players anointed as franchise cornerstones on rebuilding teams are virtually guaranteed top-six minutes to develop and sell tickets, but the Flyers are at a different stage, and they have to balance winning games and ensuring their young players are given a chance to succeed.
If both Michkov and Celebrini average 10 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 — this would be on the higher end of expectations and place them among the league's better shot generators — it would make a huge different in the totals. If we assume Celebrini plays 19 minutes per game and Michkov gets 13, which is close to what Tarasenko and Kucherov received in their relatively quiet rookie seasons, the end result is pretty stark.
Celebrini would average 3.2 shots per game and finish the season close to 260 shots, while Michkov averages 2.2 shots per game with well less than 200 shots. With a respectable 10.0 shooting percentage, Celebrini would've been on pace to match Bedard's rookie season a pro-rated 26 goals in 82 games. Michkov would finish at least a few shy of 20.
I like Michkov's talent, but other than a few select rookies, such as Celebrini, those who are relevant in fantasy are few and far between. There have been exceptional players, and Michkov has to be exceptional to draw attention. Combined with Tortorella's refusal to promise playing time, we're looking at a potentially volatile season that would make it very difficult to reach Michkov's max potential in his first season. I'm skeptical that he'll have a Malkin-esque rookie season and the Flyers are not short on top-nine wingers.
For what it's worth, Michkov is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy in 2025 according to most sportsbooks.
Among other notable rookie forwards to watch in fantasy hockey in 2024-25:
Macklin Celebrini, C, Sharks
Will Smith, C, Sharks
Logan Stankoven, C, Stars
Mavrik Bourque, C, Stars
Shane Wright, C, Kraken
Frank Nazar, C, Blackhawks
Gavin Brindley, C, Blue Jackets
Cutter Gauthier, LW, Ducks
Would you draft any of these players in one-year/redraft leagues?