Jeff Skinner's 14-season playoff drought will end in 2024-25.
Jeff Skinner's 14-season playoff drought will end in 2024-25.
In short, Jeff Skinner's time in Buffalo was up. With a slew of young forwards coming down the pipeline, his $9-million cap hit would've put a major handicap on the Sabres' ability to retain all their young forwards, even if the cap keeps going up.
At 32 years old, Skinner just didn't quite fit in with their current core, which features Tage Thompson (age 26), Rasmus Dahlin (23), Owen Power (21), Mattias Samuelsson (23) and Dylan Cozens (22).
So when Skinner was bought out, it was not a big surprise. He finished his Sabres stint with 291 points in 427 games, including two 30-goal seasons and a 40-goal season. Skinner was hard-pressed to live up to his contract, anyway, but asides from a really poor stretch under Ralph Krueger — the whole team struggled — it really wasn't that bad. It was no Ville Leino, that's for sure.
But things couldn't have turned out better for Skinner, who landed with the Oilers on a one-year deal. I mean, what could a player who thrives off the rush ask for that's better than Connor McDavid? And even if Skinner doesn't line up with McDavid, Leon Draisaitl is an elite center in his own right.
If all things go right, just as how Zach Hyman became a 50-goal scorer, Skinner is set up to have a spectacular 2024-25 season. For a player who's known for scoring goals, Skinner isn't an elite finisher (career 11.2 S%), but he's going to get some easy goals to boost his shooting percentage, likely to the higher end of his career stats. In seasons where Skinner shot at least 12 percent, he scored a minimum of 31 goals.
I think Skinner's shot share might fall slightly, but it's not a huge concern as I suspect he'll still put at least 200 shots on goal. There are a lot of mouths to feed on the Oilers, but what he lacks in volume could be made up for in quality.
If we take Hyman as an example, note that his career season also came with a career-high 5v5 high-danger 65.91 CF%, according to naturalstattrick.com. McDavid, and the rest of the Oilers, tend to dominate high-danger shot attempts, ranking eighth, fifth and first over the past three seasons. Last season, the Oilers blew away the competition with 973 attempts, over 100 more than the second-place Leafs, who had 846 attempts.
This is where Skinner will get a chance to feast on offense, who ranked 328th (!) out of 375 skaters (min. 500 TOI) in high-danger CF%. The Sabres were among the league's worst in getting shot attempts up close, ranking 25th in high-danger shot attempts, and ranked in the bottom half of the league in high-danger shots on goal and offensive zone time, according to NHL EDGE.
I'm not sure Skinner will displace Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Oilers' top line, but it certainly offers Kris Knoblauch a lot of flexibility. I don't think Evander Kane is a top-six winger anymore, which paves the way for Skinner to play in the top six.
I am slightly concerned, however, about the complete lack of defense in Skinner's game, where it could draw the ire of Knoblauch. But defense is likely to be less of a factor with the Oilers than the Sabres, and the Oilers control the puck enough that their version of a good defense is simply a good offense.
The Oilers' projected lineup for 2024-25 looks like this so far:
Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Arvidsson
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Kane - Ryan - Perry
RFA: Holloway
Skinner's one-year deal is a strong bet on himself and, clearly, he feels the Oilers are the best fit for him after he reportedly turned down a chance to join the Leafs and play with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
Coming off an 82-point season in 2022-23, Skinner was highly sought-after with a Yahoo ADP of 59.8. Had Skinner stayed with the Sabres, I suspect his ADP this coming season won't be nearly as high, but as a complementary player to McDavid and Draisaitl on the defending Western Conference champions, Skinner's potentially great value in the middle rounds. The upside is still very good, and considering what McDavid did for Hyman's fantasy value, be sure to keep Skinner on your radar.
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