The first overall pick in the 2024 draft will be tasked with turning around a team that had one of the worst seasons ever in the cap era.
The first overall pick in the 2024 draft will be tasked with turning around a team that had one of the worst seasons ever in the cap era.
There's no denying Macklin Celebrini is an enticing pick for the 2024-25 season. He was, by far, the best prospect in his draft class, from preliminary rankings until the end of the season.
It was a foregone conclusion the Sharks would pick Celebrini, with Mike Grier even letting it slip when the team introduced Ryan Warsofsky as their new head coach.
Whoops.
But we can't fault Grier for getting too excited. Celebrini is not projected to be on the same level as Connor Bedard, but still projected to be a top-tier first-line center with fantastic goal-scoring ability and an underrated two-way game. There are some who believe Celebrini's hockey IQ is so high that he'll have no problems adapting to the NHL playing any role. Celebrini is coming off an outstanding college season with Boston U, becoming just the fourth freshman and the youngest ever to win the Hobey Baker, and an equally outstanding showing at the World Juniors.
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But what can we expect in Celebrini's first NHL season, and what will be his impact in fantasy?
For starters, the Sharks won't be as bad as they were last season. They were historically bad, and you can only go up when you hit rock (ocean?) bottom. In the cap era, the 2023-24 Sharks had the second-lowest points percentage (.287) and the 12th-worst offense (2.20 GF/GP).
With Celebrini in the lineup, they'll have a young offensive dynamo who can create scoring opportunities out of thin air, and they've also made an effort to bolster the roster with proven veterans, including Jake Walman on the back end, and Barclay Goodrow, Tyler Toffoli and Alex Wennberg up front. William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau and Filip Bystedt will take another step in their development, and Logan Couture is expected to be healthy. However, the roster still looks very thin, especially on the blue line and in net, and the Sharks will likely still be a bottom-tier team.
Only five rookies in the cap era have averaged over a point per game. in the past five seasons, the high watermark has been Kirill Kaprizov (0.93) and Bedard (0.90), and four others (Jason Robertson, Matt Boldy, Trevor Zegras, Michael Bunting) finishing with at least 0.80 P/GP.
If a generational talent such as Bedard could only muster 0.90 P/GP, then surely Celebrini's production will come lower than that. Kaprizov was an older rookie and already a KHL star at the time, so he's a poor comparable. Robertson played a shortened season, Zegras had one full pro season under his belt split between the AHL and NHL before his rookie season, and Boldy played on a good team. Bunting had both prior pro experience and played on a very good team.
A 0.70 P/GP scoring pace for Celebrini would be a very good campaign, and it translates to close to 60 points in a single season. That makes Celebrini a valuable pick even in the middle rounds in redraft leagues with the potential upside for more. (In keeper/dynasty leagues, Celebrini obviously has immense value).
There are two major factors that will dictate Celebrini's fantasy value: ice time and role.
The first one is pretty easy to figure out. Even though there's a bit of a logjam at center with Couture, Wennberg and Mikael Granlund, Celebrini will get his top-six ice time with some power play. Like Bedard in Chicago, there's no pressure to win now, and it's in both Celebrini and the Sharks' best interests to give him as many reps as he can to develop.
The Sharks haven't been shy about playing their rookies. Eklund averaged 16:55 TOI in his first 17 games in the NHL, and in his first full season averaged 18:39 TOI. This was under David Quinn, too, who had previously been criticized for not playing Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière enough as the Rangers' bench boss.
If we assume Celebrini will score at an above-average rate relative to his peers, note that in the past five seasons (min. 25 GP), the lowest TOI/GP among rookies who averaged 0.5 P/GP was 13:17 (Pavel Dorofeyev), while five of them averaged over 18 minutes. (It's six if you include Zegras, who finished with 17:54 TOI/GP).
I suspect Celebrini will average at least 16 minutes per game, with a large bulk of it coming on the power play. As a comparable, Jack Hughes and Tim Stützle both averaged around 13 minutes at even strength and three minutes on the power play in their rookie seasons. That should be enough ice time for Celebrini to be productive.
The second part to consider for Celebrini's fantasy value is his role, which can be a bit more difficult to figure out. We know he'll likely play on a scoring line, but the Sharks already have four centers signed for next season: Couture, Granlund, Wennberg and Nico Sturm. That's not counting Will Smith, drafted fourth overall in 2023 and could challenge for a top-six spot.
Celebrini's versatile and adaptable enough to play wing or center, but who he plays with obviously will have an impact on his offensive output. And what if he doesn't get to play with one of Eklund, Granlund, Toffoli or even Couture or Wennberg? Getting maximum value out of Celebrini in fantasy will require him to play with either a good playmaker or finisher.
It's a similar question on the power play: Will Celebrini be the focal point or a supporting player? Will he have the green light to shoot the puck all the time, or will he be a set-up man?
One other factor to consider is injury luck. There are legitimate reasons to wonder if Celebrini can hold up to the physical tests of a grueling season in the NHL. Bedard and Connor McDavid both suffered unlucky injuries, and over the past five seasons, there were only 34 instances where a rookie played at least 70 games.
Remember, too, that the Ducks intentionally kept Leo Carlsson out of games last season to ensure he doesn't burn out. We can't rule out the possibility that the Sharks may do the same to protect their franchise player.
This is all a moot topic if Celebrini returns to Boston U for his sophomore season. There's unfinished business; Boston U lost to eventual national champions Denver in the semis, and Celebrini will be able to play with Cole Eiserman, who will join Boston U in the fall after getting drafted 20th overall. Celebrini and Eiserman were high school teammates at Shattuck-St. Mary's before Eiserman joined the NTDP and Celebrini joined the USHL's Chicago Steel.
(Personally, I think there are very good reasons for Celebrini to return to Boston U, and would not be surprised in the slightest if he delays his professional career.)
Whatever the case, Celebrini is already turning heads at the Sharks' development camp and a player to keep an eye on for the 2024-25 fantasy hockey season.
Among other notable rookie forwards to watch in fantasy hockey in 2024-25:
Will Smith, C, Sharks
Logan Stankoven, C, Stars
Mavrik Bourque, C, Stars
Shane Wright, C, Kraken
Frank Nazar, C, Blackhawks
Gavin Brindley, C, Blue Jackets
Cutter Gauthier, LW, Ducks
Matvei Michkov, LW, Flyers
Would you draft any of these players in one-year/redraft leagues?
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