At 26 years old, Sergachev is primed for a career season with an unobstructed path to be Utah's top defenseman.
At 26 years old, Sergachev is primed for a career season with an unobstructed path to be Utah's top defenseman.
It's going to be very, very interesting to see how well Mikhail Sergachev does this season.
After posting a monster stat line of 64 points, 149 blocks and 128 hits in 2022-23, Sergachev became just the 11th defenseman in the cap era to post a 60-100-100 season. His game was so well-rounded and he was so productive that he even supplanted Victor Hedman as the Lightning's top defenseman, at times.
Injuries derailed a promising 2023-24 season where he was limited to just 34 games, and he scored at just 45-point pace. With a Yahoo ADP of 89.5 and the 16th defenseman off the board, Sergachev was a massive disappointment due to some really poor injury luck.
At only 26 years old, Sergachev still has plenty of good years ahead of him, and he forms arguably the best 1-2 punch on the blue line in the league with Hedman. Sure, Sergachev plays behind Hedman, but Sergachev also played well enough to be the No. 1 for stretches, and with a team that featured Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, Sergachev was going to be an upper-tier defenseman in fantasy.
But a cap crunch meant the Lightning were forced to make drastic changes, and that included shipping Sergachev to Utah. It was a bombshell trade, although something had to give once the Lightning re-acquired Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75-million cap hit.
Obviously, moving to a weaker team will hurt Sergachev's fantasy outlook, but the flip side of the argument is his expanded role. On Utah, Sergachev's closest competition is Sean Durzi, but the good news is Durzi is a righty and Sergachev is their best lefty by a significant margin.
Utah's projected defenseman looks like this:
Mikhail Sergachev - Sean Durzi
Ian Cole - John Marino
Juuso Valimaki - Michael Kesselring
A Cole-Marino pairing would be their shutdown pair, but Andre Tourigny is also free to match Sergachev with Marino and Durzi with Cole if he wishes to have a more balanced top four.
Either way, Sergachev's path to the top is unobstructed, unlike in Tampa Bay where either he or Hedman would have to play on their off-side, and only one of them could be featured on the power play.
The biggest factor in determining Sergachev's ceiling — and fantasy value — will be his power play usage. When it comes to fantasy hockey, scoring points is the most important skill, and there's no easier and better way to do that than with the man advantage. That's why Sean Durzi was such a great sneaky pick last season, who finished with a career-high 41 points, including 16 on the power play.
The Coyotes played a four-forward set last season, with Durzi skating over 247 minutes (3:16 PP TOI/GP), compared to Valimaki and J.J. Moser (traded to Tampa), who received less than 75 minutes each.
During Sergachev's standout 2022-23 season, he essentially split the time evenly with Hedman, finishing with roughly 200 minutes each. Last season, Sergachev skated just 57:23 on the power play due to injury, but also averaged nearly one minute less than in 2022-23 (1:41 PP TOI/GP vs. 2:33 PP TOI/GP). It's one reason why his scoring pace dipped, injuries aside.
While it's possible the Coyotes play both Sergachev and Durzi on the top unit, it prevents them from playing Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller all on the same unit. That's a lethal group of young talent, and it would be wasteful not to play them all together.
Let's assume a best-case scenario for Sergachev where he averages 3 minutes on the power play per game, which puts him in the top 20 in the league among defensemen.
Sergachev's power play production per 60 minutes based on NHL.com's combined stats for 2022-23 and 2023-24:
9.0 PP S%
0.70 PPG/60
3.25 PPA1/60
3.94 PPA2/60
7.7 PP S/60
By the way, these are really impressive numbers. Sergachev's 3.25 primary assist rate per 60 minutes ranks fourth (!) in the league (min. 200 PP TOI), ahead of even Quinn Hughes and Rasmus Dahlin.
Assuming Sergachev plays the full 82-game slate, he will play 246 total minutes on the power play in the best-case scenario, which would produce:
2.87 PPG
13.33 PPA1
16.15 PPA2
Total: 32.35
I would discount the PPA2 numbers a little bit because secondary assists tend to be more luck-based, but 32 power-play points would put Sergachev somewhere near the top 10 of the league, similar to what Hedman scored last season.
I would definitely take the under on this lofty 32.35 projected power play points because I don't think Utah has the same quality of finishers as the Lightning, and this was with Sergachev's best seasons. How he recovers from serious injuries will be a factor, too. One way to ensure Sergachev can reach these numbers would be to shoot the puck a lot more; that's always been the one drawback to his well-rounded fantasy value.
Anything close to 30 power-play points, however, would put Sergachev back in the same territory as his outstanding 2022-23 season.
A scenario where Sergachev splits time with Durzi evenly would mean half that production (16.11 projected PPP, actually), and it would be respectable. That's what Durzi scored last season, but it's hardly the type of defenseman you should be reaching for in drafts.
Where would you draft Sergachev this coming season?
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