2023-24 Fantasy Hockey Dynasty League Top 150 Under-27 Rankings

The top 150 under-27 players to target in fantasy hockey over the next three NHL seasons.

The NHL is a young man’s game. Not every first overall pick dominates the league right away, but the game today emphasizes speed, quickness, agility and skill. Just look at the list of Hart Trophy winners – it has been more than two decades (!) since a player over 30 years old has won the MVP.

Sidney Crosby was 19 years old when he won his first Hart, and Connor McDavid was 20. In fact, no one over the age of 27 has won the Hart since 2009-10 when Henrik Sedin was 29.

All this to say that age is a very important factor in fantasy, and perhaps the most important factor in dynasty leagues. In short, dynasty – or keeper, as they’re sometimes known – leagues allow fantasy managers to retain players season over season. It allows some continuity as opposed to re-draft leagues, where rosters are reset every season.

There are pros and cons to dynasty leagues, and a lot will depend on your rules and settings. Some leagues allow managers to retain players indefinitely, while other leagues set limits and force managers to return players back into the draft pool after a certain period of time. This gives every manager a chance at rostering Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard, and maintains a level of competitiveness in the fantasy league.

A lot of work has done into researching aging curves in the NHL and, if possible, their works are featured here. The rankings are partly based on Gabriel Desjardins’ (@behindthenet) research on when players peak and Eric Tulsky’s (now assistant GM for the Hurricanes) piece on scoring rates relative to age. Josh and Luke (@EvolvingWild) have also done some in-depth research that can be found on hockey-graphs.com. For the purposes of these dynasty rankings, we will be leaning on these studies and projections provided by Yahoo Fantasy and Rotowire.

All studies drew similar conclusions; players generally reach their peak point production in their early 20’s. There are, obviously, exceptions. McDavid just had his best season ever at age 26, and it feels like he’s still getting better. Sidney Crosby just scored 93 points in his age-35 season.

For the rankings, we assume players peak between the ages of 24-26, based on Desjardins’ findings.

If you haven't checked it out, click here for the top 200 dynasty league rankings including players over 27 years old.

1. The projections look forward three seasons, up until the conclusion of the 2025-26 season. Age is as of opening night on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023.

2. All players on this list must be under 27 years old. As we are projecting forward three seasons, the oldest players on this list will be turning 30 years old, an age where point production historically falls off.

3. Only players who have been drafted or signed by an NHL team will be considered. No prospects from the 2024 draft class and beyond are considered. (Sorry, Mack Celebrini stans).

4. Goalies are not included as their aging curves tend to be different and their fantasy values often too volatile due to playing time, their environment and fantasy league settings.

The main factor that determines the rankings is points. Players are ranked based on potential and the sum of their projected point totals over the next three seasons. Note that just because Bedard is ranked 12th, that does not mean he’s projected to be the 12th-best player in the league over the next three seasons. It means he’s projected to finish 12th (or thereabouts) in total points over the upcoming three-year period. He will, after all, turn 21 after the 2025-26 season begins, meaning his peak is likely five to seven seasons from now.

Due to the age cut-off, notable exclusions included: Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Brayden Point, Kevin Fiala and Timo Meier, who just missed the cut at 27 years and two days old when the 2023-24 season begins.

If you haven't checked it out, click here for the top 200 dynasty league rankings including players over 27 years old.

Essentially the question the rankings attempts to answer is: which player currently under 27 years old would you rather roster for the next three years?

Connor McDavid still outscores everyone. On the back of a ridiculous 153-point season, even a regression puts him in the neighbourhood of 130-140 points. He is the only player projected to score over 400 points over the next three seasons. He is already just 150 points away from 1,000.

Sidenote: The top three players to score 1,000 points in the fewest numbers of games: Wayne Gretzky (424), Mario Lemieux (513) and Mike Bossy (656). If McDavid reaches quadruple digits this season, it would be the third-fastest in history – absolutely amazing.

Jack Hughes is clear-cut No. 2, and there's a gap between him and No. 3 Elias Pettersson. There is a small gap between No. 6 Matthew Tkachuk and No. 7 Mikko Rantanen, and a sizable gap between No. 11 Cale Makar and No. 12 Tage Thompson. 

Among the players under 21 in the top 100 on this list: Bedard (ranked 13th), Matty Beniers (32nd), Mason McTavish (43rd), Adam Fantilli (44th), Wyatt Johnston (48th), Logan Cooley (57th), Leo Carlsson (65th), Luke Hughes (69th), Matthew Knies (73rd), Brandt Clarke (81st), Kent Johnson (82nd), Matt Coronato (94th) and Shane Wright (100th). 

The most well-represented teams are Columbus and Ottawa with nine players each, followed by Arizona and Buffalo with eight each. This makes sense since they are laden with young talent and deep prospect pools. The only team without a single player on this list is Pittsburgh.

Notable omissions: Olen Zellweger, ANA; Victor Soderstrom, ARI; Zach Benson, BUF; Matthew Savoie, BUF; Jakob Pelletier, CGY; Marco Kasper, DET; Brock Faber, MIN; Simon Nemec, NJ; Cutter Gauthier, PHI; Matvei Michkov, PHI; Will Smith, SJ

For the full list of top 200 players regardless of age, click here.