The Ducks were absolutely roasted last season and finished dead last. The good news is, there's only way to go but up. Look for Mason McTavish to lead the way in fantasy.
Outlook
Last season:
23-47-12, 8th Pacific, 32nd overall.
2.51 GF/GP (31st), 4.09 GA/GP (32nd), 15.7 PP% (31st), 72.1 PK% (31st)
42.67 5v5 CF% (32nd), 38.96 5v5 GF% (31st), 39.86 5v5 xGF% (32nd)
I saved the worst for last. The Ducks were the worst team in the league last season, and considering they posted the highest goals against per game ever in the cap era, it was not even close. The good news is, when you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up.
Are the Ducks a good fantasy option this season? The short answer is no. Their top scorer, Trevor Zegras, is a one-dimensional scorer who doesn’t shoot a lot or provide a lot of peripherals, and given that his ceiling right now is at a point per game, he’s not a very appetizing fantasy asset.
Troy Terry is in a similar boat, and though he’s been the better overall player, both Zegras and Terry are 60-point players. Even though I’ve ranked them at No. 80 and 102, that still feels a little high. They’re part of a fat middle class of depth scorers in fantasy, and while their age and potential are enticing, there are better options out there, including Drake Batherson, Brock Boeser or Dawson Mercer. They’re similarly young players who have scored 60-something points but, either possess more upside or play on better teams that can maximize their talents.
If you’re going to reach for a Duck, it’s better to go after Mason McTavish, who scored 43 points last season and offers much higher upside. He’s likely their future No. 1 center and being on the third line in the projected lineup belies his potential; the Ducks are so thin so the talent is pretty spread out. Leo Carlsson, the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, is not included in the projected lineup due to his age and inexperience. If he makes the team, he will likely play a bottom-six role, though it's better for his development to play big minutes in the AHL. Neither situation, however, presents much upside in fantasy.
The Ducks splurged on Alex Killorn in free agency, and his 64 points last season with the Lightning would’ve finished second on the Ducks, just one point behind Zegras. Considering Killorn is playing on a team without any elite scorers, it’s reasonable to expect his scoring rate to drop, not to mention his 16.7 S% over the past four season is likely unsustainable without a strong supporting cast. Killorn is a great role player and probably great for the young Ducks’ locker room, and not the type to turn around an anemic offense.
On defense, the debate would be between Cam Fowler, last season’s top power play quarterback who managed to somehow score a career-high 48 points on a terrible team, and Jamie Drysdale, their power play quarterback of the future who missed 74 games last season due to injury. Over the past three seasons, Fowler’s advanced analytics have graded better than Drysdale’s, and despite the Ducks’ focus on building a winning team in the future, the PP1 QB spot is still Fowler’s to lose. He’s still the better overall defender, and with playing time such an important factor in determining fantasy value, Fowler has the edge.
Projected Lineup
Adam Henrique – Trevor Zegras – Troy Terry
Frank Vatrano – Ryan Strome – Alex Killorn
Max Jones – Mason McTavish – Brett Leason
Brock McGinn – Isac Lundeström – Jakob Silfverberg
Cam Fowler – Radko Gudas
Robert Hagg – Jamie Drysdale
Urho Vaakanainen – Ilya Lyubushkin
John Gibson – Alex Stalock
PP1
Henrique – Zegras – Terry – McTavish – Fowler
PP2
Vatrana – Strome – Killorn – Silfverberg – Drysdale
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Troy Terry, 68 points
Trevor Zegras, 67 points
Mason McTavish, 63 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Ducks (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
80. Trevor Zegras, C
102. Troy Terry, RW
125. John Gibson, G
135. Mason McTavish, C
187. Alex Killorn, LW
237. Cam Fowler, D
238. Frank Vatrano, C
241. Ryan Strome, C
251. Jamie Drysdale, D
295. Leo Carlsson, C
Top 300 Ranked Ducks (Banger League) (Full List):
78. Trevor Zegras, C
127. Troy Terry, RW
145. Mason McTavish, C
198. Frank Vatrano, C
206. John Gibson, G
223. Alex Killorn, LW
246. Cam Fowler, D
253. Radko Gudas, D
260. Ryan Strome, C
267. Jamie Drysdale, D
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
It’s uncertain how much Mason McTavish will improve in his second season, but he’s expected to improve for sure. He was as consistent as they come, scoring between seven and nine points each month from November to March, and also saw his ice time creep up to 16 minutes from 14 minutes at the beginning of the season.
Usage is an important consideration here, since the Ducks have shown a tendency to feed McTavish on the power play. The only threat to McTavish to finish with the most shots on goal at the end of the season is Frank Vatrano, but McTavish is the far better finisher with the role on PP1, and McTavish will probably receive more ice time as well. He's ranked 64th in my dynasty rankings.
Regression Candidate
As noted above, it’d be surprising if Alex Killorn manages to post a 60-point season on a lesser team. He’s playing on a new team for the first time in his career at age 34, and that’s usually not a recipe for success. There’s going to be an adjustment period to his new surroundings, his new role and his new lifestyle. It’s not the risk that Killorn’s fantasy value, it’s the low upside that makes him unworthy of drafting.
Goalies
For the umpteenth time, I can't tell if John Gibson is now a poor goalie or someone who just can’t wait to leave the Ducks. His save percentage has drifted downward and his GAA upward for five seasons now, and based on public goals saved above average metrics, he no longer rates as a quality starter. That’s alarming because he’s expected to be a workhorse, and though he can provide fantasy teams with a ton of saves, he’s a killer in all the other categories after leading the league in both losses (31) and goals allowed (200) last season. The only way Gibson recoups some fantasy value is if he gets traded, which is still a possibility since the Ducks can get a lot for him, and they have Lukas Dostal waiting to take over.
Speaking of Dostal, he’ll likely be a streaming option but not worth drafting due to limited playing time. If Gibson is a workhorse, Dostal won’t see the ice very often, and the Ducks also signed veteran Alex Stalock, who performed admirably with the Blackhawks, to be their backup.