Scoring will not be a problem for the young Sabres, who offer elite fantasy options in all formats.
Outlook
Last season:
42-33-7, 5th Atlantic, 20th overall.
3.57 GF/GP (3rd), 3.62 GA/GP (26th), 23.4 PP% (9th), 73.0 PK% (28th)
51.36 5v5 CF% (14th), 49.13 5v5 GF% (19th), 49.23 5v5 xGF% (21st)
The Sabres are everyone’s favourite darling team. They missed the playoffs for the 12th straight season but improved their win total by 10. They were must-see television with one of the best sets of jerseys in the league, and, wow, they could really score. There’s optimism surrounding the Sabres not seen since the days of Daniel Brière and Chris Drury.
What was one of the most offensively inept teams in the league is now one of the most dangerous, led by a scary top line with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner, all of whom rank in the top 60 in the fantasy rankings. Dylan Cozens is a star in the making and he has a higher ceiling than most No. 2 center, and he’ll be flanked by promising wingers JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn (when healthy). Peterka is ranked 244th in the fantasy rankings factoring in a big jump to 20 goals and 50-something points, and Quinn would be ranked a little higher due to a higher ceiling but he is expected to miss the start of the season after rupturing his Achilles in June.
Don’t forget about Casey Mittelstadt, who was rushed into the pros but broke out last season with 59 points, and Victor Olofsson, who’s a 30-goal threat. The offense on this team runs three lines deep, providing both elite and depth options in fantasy. Seriously, you can’t go wrong with the Sabres.
On the back end, they’re led by Rasmus Dahlin, who entered elite territory with a 73-point season. In banger leagues, Dahlin might be the Sabres’ best option – a point-per-game machine with 200-plus shots, 100-plus hits and 100-plus blocks. He’s the second-ranked defenseman in my fantasy rankings and 21st in the banger league rankings, one spot behind Thompson. With Dahlin’s category coverage, he could easily leapfrog Thompson even if his scoring pace falls off a little.
Owen Power will be an interesting fantasy player. He was brilliant in his rookie season, finishing third in Calder voting and stepped in to play 24 minutes right away in arguably the league’s toughest position. His point production is modest, and it will likely be capped due to the presence of Dahlin, but it was also interesting to see how effective Power was on the ice even though he didn’t stuff the stats sheet with shots, blocks or hits. His fantasy value suffers because of this, but he’s certainly on a steep trajectory and might be worth a late-round flier just to see what Power can do in his second season.
Projected Lineup
Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn
Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – Victor Olofsson
Peyton Krebs – Zemgus Girgensons – Kyle Okposo
Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin
Owen Power – Erik Johnson
Jacob Bryson – Connor Clifton
Devon Levi – Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
PP1
Skinner – Thompson – Tuch – Cozens – Dahlin
PP2
Peterka – Mittelstadt – Quinn – Olofsson – Power
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Tage Thompson, 84 points
Alex Tuch, 80 points
Rasmus Dahlin, 75 points
Dylan Cozens, 75 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Sabres (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
15. Tage Thompson, C
44. Rasmus Dahlin, D
45. Jeff Skinner, LW
56. Alex Tuch, RW
81. Dylan Cozens, C
143. Casey Mittelstadt, C
244. JJ Peterka, RW
253. Owen Power, D
259. Viktor Olofsson, LW
Top 300 Ranked Sabres (Banger League) (Full List):
20. Tage Thompson, C
21. Rasmus Dahlin, D
59. Jeff Skinner, LW
60. Alex Tuch, RW
89. Dylan Cozens, C
184. Casey Mittelstadt, C
263. Owen Power, D
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
I’m not convinced Owen Power will be a fantasy stud this season, though it’s true that what he’s done is truly rare. Only three defensemen averaged more ice time than Power in their rookie seasons in the cap era: Tobias Enstrom, Ryan Whitney and Drew Doughty. At one point or another, all three were either solid or excellent options in fantasy, though not necessarily right away.
Instead, I’d turn my attention to JJ Peterka, the 21-year-old German winger whom the Sabres traded up to draft in 2020. He was very good in his rookie season, and on a high-scoring team, he should be able to improve on last year’s 12-goal, 32-point season. The original pick was Quinn, but his injury puts a damper on his fantasy value for 2023-24.
Regression Candidate
I think Alex Tuch has been a great fit for his childhood favourite team, but I can’t overlook his 16.5 shooting percentage and the jump to 36 goals. I would bet against Tuch being a point-per-game player again this season, but the drop-off is unlikely to be steep. Playing on a line with Thompson and Skinner opens up opportunities for Tuch, not to mention his ice time at both even strength and on the power play are unlikely to be cut. A 30-goal, 70-point season would still be great value for Tuch, though note despite his size, he’s not quite as valuable in banger leagues.
Goalies
This is where it gets dicey for the Sabres. Offensively, they were fantastic, but defensively, they were still a mess, allowing the seventh-highest goals per game and ranked 28th on the penalty kill. They made an effort to address that in the off-season, signing both Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton, but they’re not high-impact players.
Their defensive play will obviously have an impact on their goaltending, with Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as the top candidates to win the starting job. There are both good and bad reasons to keep Levi with the big club; he’s their best goalie – if not now then certainly in the future – but playing a full season in the NHL is very difficult and there’s no veteran backup to lean on. (Eric Comrie, the third goalie in contention, has 47 games of NHL experience).
Luukkonen has a lower ceiling but at least he has more experience. His 2022-23 season had its ups and downs, and this is a contract year for him with his two-year bridge contract set to expire. There were times he looked every part the goalie of the future, too. Keep in mind that Comrie and Luukkonen need to pass through waivers to be assigned to the minors, and Luukkonen will be claimed for sure. From a cap and asset management perspective, assigning Levi to the AHL makes the most sense, and the Rochester Americans are a good club.
History is replete with young goalies who are pushed into the job too quickly. Marc-André Fleury had a sub-.910 SP through his first 138 NHL games, and it wasn’t until his sixth season did he become a bona fide starter. Not everyone can be Carey Price, and what’s the hurry for the Sabres, anyway?
Even if Levi’s good enough to be the starter, do the Sabres have the right defensive corps to support him? In Price’s rookie season, he had veterans Mark Streit, Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik to help him out. In Levi’s case, he’s counting on the offense-first Dahlin and two young 20-something’s in Power and Mattias Samuelsson. You draft Levi knowing it’s a high-risk, high-reward option. He is not ranked in my fantasy rankings until the Sabres make it clear who’s the No. 1.
