The Flames still have the talent to bounce back after a disastrous season, making them excellent buy-low candidates in fantasy.
Outlook
Last season:
38-27-17, 5th Pacific, 16th overall.
3.15 GF/GP (19th), 3.01 GA/GP (13th), 19.8 PP% (19th), 82.6 PK% (5th)
57.39 5v5 CF% (2nd), 51.85 5v5 GF% (14th), 55.41 5v5 xGF% (3rd)
If there was any team last season that could debunk analytics, it would be the Flames. Despite ranking in the top five in possession metrics and expected goals at 5-on-5, the Flames were a dumpster fire for most of the season. They fell well short of expectations, often watching their problems spiral out of control. They were mired in a seven-game losing streak and two separate five-game losing streaks, and from November until the end of March, they were able to string together three consecutive wins just twice.
Usually, a disastrous season would prompt significant changes, but the Flames decided to run it back, and new GM Craig Conroy only swapped Tyler Toffoli – their top scorer – for Yegor Sharangovich and a draft pick. They’re expected to improve without making any significant changes to their roster simply because their chemistry is expected to better without Darryl Sutter around.
This should benefit Jonathan Huberdeau the most, who saw his point production drop by 60 points, no thanks to inconsistent linemates and usage. Perhaps it was the pressure of being in a new environment, but arguably no player’s fantasy value has been beat up more than Huberdeau’s.
This is also a good reason and a great time to buy low; Huberdeau’s average draft position on Yahoo is currently 120.5, but I have him ranked 77th in the fantasy rankings and the Fantasy Guide has projected him to score 83 points. It’s highly unlikely he’ll score 100 points, but getting a point-per-game player in the 10th to 12th round is incredibly good value.
It’s true impending UFAs Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, and basically the entire defense minus Rasmus Andersson and Mac Weegar, clouds the Flames’ future. But, at the moment, they remain Flames, and they’re still very good players. This is still a playoff-quality team on paper, and a good season might make everyone change their minds about leaving. The amount of talent was not the problem last season.
As it stands, the Flames still have three forwards ranked in the top 100 with room for a few surprises in prospects Jakob Pelletier and Matt Coronato, who sneaks in at No. 297. A top-line role could also see Sharangovich post career highs, though he’s not assured of that role and note Dillon Dubé played a lot with Lindholm last season, which would move Huberdeau to Nazem Kadri’s line. The projected lineup below is subject to a lot of change under new coach Ryan Huska, though Huberdeau and Lindholm remain the Flames’ best fantasy options regardless.
Projected Lineup
Jonathan Huberdeau – Elias Lindholm – Yegor Sharangovich
Blake Coleman – Mikael Backlund – Andrew Mangiapane
Jakob Pelletier – Nazem Kadri – Matt Coronato
Dillon Dubé – Adam Ruzicka – Walker Duehr
Noah Hanifin – Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington – Chris Tanev
Nikita Zadorov – Mac Weegar
Jacob Markstrom – Dan Vladar
PP1
Huberdeau – Kadri – Lindholm – Mangiapane – Andersson
PP2
Dubé – Backlund – Sharangovich – Weegar – Hanifin
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Jonathan Huberdeau, 83 points
Elias Lindholm, 67 points
Nazem Kadri, 60 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Flames (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
71. Elias Lindholm, C
77. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW
94. Nazem Kadri, C
105. Jacob Markstrom, G
165. Mikael Backlund, C
203. Rasmus Andersson, D
221. Andrew Mangiapane, LW
260. Dillon Dubé, LW
261. Noah Hanifin, D
279. Blake Coleman, C
281. Yegor Sharangovich, C
288. MacKenzie Weegar, D
297. Matt Coronato, RW
Top 300 Ranked Flames (Banger League) (Full List):
64. Elias Lindholm, C
83. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW
85. Nazem Kadri, C
151. MacKenzie Weegar, D
157. Mikael Backlund, C
160. Rasmus Andersson, D
163. Jacob Markstrom, G
212. Andrew Mangiapane, LW
220. Noah Hanifin, D
222. Blake Coleman, C
241. Dillon Dubé, LW
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
The Flames haven’t always done a good job of drafting and developing, but Matt Coronato might prove to be one of the exceptions. Drafted 13th overall in 2021, Coronato was one of the best players to come out of the USHL, having once scored 48 goals in 51 games. Known for his shooting ability, he scored 38 goals in 68 games for Harvard and added another eight points in 10 games for Team USA at the World Championships.
In his lone game with the Flames last season, Coronato played a little under 15 minutes and finished with four shots on goal. The Flames lineup is crowded with vets, but Coronato has a chance to win a top-six role on a team short on right-handed forwards. He’ll surely pop up on the fantasy radar this season and I have him ranked 297th in my top 300 fantasy rankings.
Regression Candidate
If any of the Flames regressed any further from last season, they might as well wash out of the league.
Goalies
It’s weird how some goalies alternate between good seasons and bad seasons, and Jacob Markstrom might as well be the poster boy. If last season was any indication – his .892 SP was an eight-year low – Markstrom might win the Vezina. Jokes aside, if the team in front of Markstrom is better, then logic dictates he should have a much stronger season.
Even if the quality isn’t there, Markstrom can make up for it in quantity. He’s one of just 13 goalies who started at least 50 games last season, and his workload is expected to be immense once again. With the league moving to tandems, or even three-man rotations for potentially the Hurricanes and Kraken, workhorse goalies just aren’t that easy to find anymore in fantasy.
Markstrom is the 14th-ranked goalie in the fantasy rankings, behind the shaky Vitek Vanacek and just ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky, another potential workhorse goalie who hasn’t been very reliable lately. For leagues that count saves, Markstrom is a good value pick in the middle rounds with 30-win upside as the Flames attempt to bounce back.
