2023-24 Fantasy Hockey Preview: Dallas Stars

With an elite player and quality depth at every position, the Stars offer championship-winning fantasy options.

Last season:
47-21-14, 2nd Central, 8th overall. Eliminated Western Conference final by Vegas, 4-2.
3.43 GF/GP (7th), 2.62 GA/GP (3rd), 25.0 PP% (5th), 83.5 PK% (3rd)
51.67 5v5 CF% (10th), 54.69 5v5 GF% (7th), 52.11 5v5 xGF% (10th)

The Stars were excellent across the board in just about every way. They ranked in the top 10 in every metric above and had an elite player at forward, defense and in net. The problem was that they were eliminated by the eventual champions; otherwise, they have nothing to be ashamed of, and they got even better in the off-season.

The top of line Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz rivals any top line that doesn’t have a player named Connor. All three players rank in the top 100 in the fantasy rankings, led by Robertson at No. 6 and, quite frankly, No. 82 does feel a little low for the ageless Pavelski. Entering his age-39 season, he remains an effective player both in real life and in fantasy. Betting against him is like catching a falling knife.

Of the five Stars who scored at least 70 points last season, Jamie Benn is the most likely to regress. The five-year stretch where he was a legitimate point-per-game threat was about five years ago. Though he remains ranked inside the top 150, he could easily fall closer to 200th. It’s not a big deal for the Stars even if their captain regresses because they have a bounce-back candidate in Matt Duchene, who should form a strong scoring duo with Tyler Seguin with their speed and playmaking. They’ve got quality depth at all positions, and it shows with four forwards ranked between 100 and 200 in the rankings.

On defense, it starts with Miro Heiskanen, who is the ninth-best defenseman in the rankings. He’s fully realized his potential as a two-way threat – finally – and he’s firmly in the second tier of fantasy defensemen after never scoring more than 36 points in the previous four seasons. This is not some sort of Josh Morrissey-esque outlier season; Heiskanen’s legitimately that good, and eclipsing the 200-short mark puts him in the top 10 and provides a nice, high floor for fantasy managers.

Esa Lindell (147 blocks) and Jani Hakanpaa (128 blocks, 224 hits) provide some nice banger league categories though neither rank in the banger rankings due their lack of scoring. Note Ryan Suter is expected to play with Heiskanen on the top pair, but he’s definitely on the last legs of his fantasy value (and career), if it hasn’t reached nil already, and I have top prospect Thomas Harley as PP2 QB in my projected lineup.

Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Joe Pavelski
Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Evgenii Dadonov
Mason Marchment – Tyler Seguin – Matt Duchene
Sam Steel – Radek Faksa – Ty Dellandrea

Ryan Suter – Miro Heiskanen
Esa Lindell – Jani Hakanpaa
Thomas Harley – Nils Lundkvist

Jake Oettinger – Scott Wedgewood

PP1
Robertson – Hintz – Pavelski – Benn – Heiskanen
PP2
Marchment – Johnston – Seguin – Duchene – Harley

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Jason Robertson, 95 points
Roope Hintz, 74 points
Joe Pavelski, 70 points

(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)

Top 300 Ranked Stars (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
6. Jason Robertson, LW
19. Jake Oettinger, G
40. Roope Hintz, C
82. Joe Pavelski, C
88. Miro Heiskanen, D
130. Jamie Benn, LW
146. Matt Duchene, C
154. Wyatt Johnston, C
174. Tyler Seguin, C
242. Mason Marchment, LW
262. Evgenii Dadonov, RW

Top 300 Ranked Stars (Banger League) (Full List):
9. Jason Robertson, LW
34. Jake Oettinger, G
37. Roope Hintz, C
71. Joe Pavelski, RW
74. Miro Heiskanen, D
113. Jamie Benn, LW
172. Matt Duchene, C
175. Tyler Seguin, C
195. Mason Marchment, LW
196. Wyatt Johnston, C

All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.

His path is blocked with Heiskanen quarterbacking the top power play unit, but Thomas Harley has oodles of offensive potential. He could emerge as the Stars’ No. 4 defenseman this season after playing just six games and averaging less than 17 minutes per game last season. A secure spot in the lineup and some offensive-zone deployment should see the former first-round pick establish himself as an NHL regular. Harley won’t have much fantasy value this season due to his limited role, but he’s certainly a name to keep an eye on and should – heaven forbid – an injury occur to Heiskanen, he’s the most logical choice to take over on PP1.

As I noted before, the consensus is Jamie Benn. The Stars captain is surrounded by quality players, especially with the impressive Wyatt Johnston, but last season’s return to point-per-game status was buoyed by a career-high shooting percentage and a really high 105.4 PDO at even strength per hockey-reference.com. It’s just not often you have one of your best seasons while averaging the fewest minutes per game since your rookie season. That being said, Benn will not completely fall off the fantasy radar; it’s more buyer beware.

The Stars have nothing to worry about in terms of ability. Jake Oettinger is one of the league’s best goalies and the only risk in fantasy is his workload. He was excellent with 61 starts last season, but it was clear that he was running out of steam late in the season, with a .895 SP in March and .895 SP in the playoffs. There were some excellent performances in there, but the Stars need to keep their eyes on the ultimate prize. Over time, Oettinger will get acclimated to a heavy workload; he’s entering just his fourth NHL season after spending three seasons at Boston U where he never played more than 38 games during the regular season.

With Scott Wedgewood showing that he can be a very good backup – a low-key quality option for streaming – look for Oettinger’s playing time to get dialed back a little bit to 50-something starts. Even with the potentially reduced playing time, Oettinger is the third-ranked goalie in my fantasy rankings and a must-start every night.