If a rising tide raises all boats, Connor McDavid is like the Bay of Fundy, with an emphasis on "fun." Which lucky wingers will get the top assignment?
Outlook
Last season:
50-23-9, 2nd Pacific, 6th overall. Eliminated in Round 2 by Vegas, 4-2.
3.96 GF/GP (1st), 3.12 GA/GP (17th), 32.4 PP% (1st), 77.0 PK% (20th)
52.27 5v5 CF% (7th), 53.20 5v5 GF% (12th), 53.59 5v5 xGF% (6th)
Is there any player who should be taken ahead of Connor McDavid in any league format?
No.
Stop with your silly questions.
If a rising tide raises all boats, McDavid is like the Bay of Fundy, with an emphasis on "fun." That’s no disrespect to Leon Draisaitl, but the best power play in NHL history and the league’s scariest offense is powered by McDavid. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ fantasy value jumped two-fold, and saw his career 0.73 P/GP spike to 0.79 P/GP after his 104-point season. Zach Hyman went from 0.57 P/GP to 0.64 P/GP after his 83-point season. That’s an eight percent and 12 percent gain, respectively, in career average after only one season – outrageous.
We won’t worry about the rest of the lineup – it’s very mid – because in fantasy, we only really care about the ones who get to play with McDavid and Draisaitl. The two players that should jump up in everyone’s draft list is Evander Kane, who has played only 84 games across two seasons in Edmonton, and newcomer Connor Brown.
Kane is a fascinating banger league asset. He’s ranked just behind RNH within the top 50 in the banger league rankings, since few players have 30-goal and 150-hit potential like him. The problem with Kane is that his off-ice issues have forced him to miss a ton of playing time, and he’s played more than 70 games just five times in his 14-year career. Durability and below-average assist totals are the dangers with him in fantasy.
The other player of intrigue is Brown, McDavid’s former teammate in the OHL. During their two years together, Brown actually outscored McDavid; we know who’s the better player, of course, but they formed a symbiotic relationship, and if Brown plays with McDavid, he’s in a good position to set career highs across the board. It would be unwise to underestimate the McDavid effect – I think we’re looking at a 30-goal season from Brown if he stays on McDavid’s wing. Do not count out a Hyman-McDavid-Brown line, either, and even though his wingers are not first-line talents on their own, Hyman and Brown – who played together with Auston Matthews in the middle – can at least produce second-line numbers.
On defense, the gem is Evan Bouchard. Ranking him at No. 74 feels appropriate considering his absurd scoring pace in the playoffs (17 points in 12 games) and the prospect of quarterbacking what should be (again) a historically good power play. Is he in the Roman Josi/Cale Makar tier? He’s close, but there’s a clear distinction.
The real debate is between Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse. While Nurse is no doubt the better banger league asset, Ekholm scored at a 54-point pace with the Oilers. The thing about solid, two-way defensemen such as Ekholm is that they have the ability to score points, but often choose not to because that’s not what’s asked of him. In a more free-flowing offense, Ekholm has a chance to score 50 points and I think he outscores Nurse.
Projected Lineup
Evander Kane – Connor McDavid – Connor Brown
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Leon Draisaitl – Zach Hyman
Warren Foegele – Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan
Dylan Holloway – Lane Pederson – Mattias Janmark
Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Cody Ceci
Philip Broberg – Brett Kulak
Stuart Skinner – Jack Campbell
PP1
Draisaitl – McDavid – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Bouchard
PP2
Kane – McLeod – Brown – Ekholm – Nurse
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Connor McDavid, 138 points
Leon Draisaitl, 121 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 92 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Oilers (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
1. Connor McDavid, C
3. Leon Draisaitl, C
37. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
55. Zach Hyman, LW
74. Evan Bouchard, D
85. Evander Kane, LW
132. Stuart Skinner, G
177. Connor Brown, RW
249. Jack Campbell, G
272. Darnell Nurse, D
278. Mattias Ekholm, D
Top 300 Ranked Panthers (Banger League) (Full List):
1. Connor McDavid, C
3. Leon Draisaitl, C
41. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
42. Evander Kane, LW
56. Evan Bouchard, D
57. Zach Hyman, RW
130. Darnell Nurse, D
216. Connor Brown, RW
218. Stuart Skinner, G
229. Mattias Ekholm, D
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
If Connor Brown is going to set career highs, it’s playing next to McDavid on a cheap, one-year deal with the prospect of a rising cap and a big, big bag next summer. Brown has missed significant time over the past two seasons due to injuries, but prior to that was an iron man of sorts, playing all 82 games in three straight seasons.
Top-six minutes, a directive to pull the trigger more with McDavid setting him up and a small but significant history of individual success – Brown led Canada in scoring at the 2021 World Championships en route to winning gold – puts him on a path to a breakout season even though he’ll turn 30 in January.
The only bummer is that there’s likely no room for Brown on the top power play unit, which is why Hyman is still ranked much higher even though I have Hyman projected to play on the second line with Draisaitl and RNH.
Regression Candidate
Even with a slight regression, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should be a point-per-game player. That power play was just absurd, and RNH reaped huge benefits. His spot next to Draisaitl at even strength and on the top power play unit is all but guaranteed, but to replicate a 37-goal season is unreasonable for someone who doesn’t shoot the puck very often.
Keep in mind, too, that of his 38 power-play assists, which was the eighth-best single season total in the cap era, 25 (!) of them were second assists. RNH’s 13 primary power-play assists ranked second-last in the 41 instances in which a player has scored at least 30 power-play assists in the cap era. The only player below him is Claude Giroux in 2013-14, who regressed from an MVP-caliber season with 86 points and 30 power-play assists to 73 points and 23 power-play assists the following season.
Goalies
Stuart Skinner is the starter until somehow Jack Campbell gets hot for a few months of the season. Neither are standout goalies except for the fact that they get the best goal support in the league. Even if they finish the season with GAA closer to 3.00, the Oilers are going to somehow win a minimum of 45 games.
It makes their fantasy value tough to evaluate, and it’ll be entirely dependent on your league settings. Leagues that discount wins and favour strong individual goalies by emphasizing saves or save percentage will find that Skinner and Campbell are really frustrating options. Either look elsewhere or find yourself a good second goalie.
