Does Pierre-Luc Dubois push the Kings over the top? And which of their prospects will finally be fantasy-relevant in 2023-24?

Outlook

Last season:
47-25-10, 3rd Pacific, 10th overall. Eliminated Round 1 by Edmonton, 4-2.
3.34 GF/GP (10th), 3.10 GA/GP (16th), 25.3 PP% (4th), 75.8 PK% (24th)
52.33 5v5 CF% (6th), 51.52 5v5 GF% (16th), 53.02 5v5 xGF% (9th)

At some point, the Kings have to bust through. Over the past nine seasons, they’ve failed to make the playoffs five times and lost in the first round four times, including back-to-back losses to the Oilers. The most recent first-round loss was not close.

The trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois and his subsequent $68-million extension seemed both like a desperation move and an attempt to push the Kings over the top, but what really needs to happen is someone from their prospect pool needs to step up, especially after trading away Gabriel Vilardi in his post-breakout season. Quinton Byfield scored only three goals in 53 games last season, Arthur Kaliyev still can’t get consistent top-six minutes, Alex Turcotte is looking like a bust, and now they’re counting on Brandt Clarke to add some offense and take pressure off Drew Doughty.

There’s a lot that can go right for the Kings, but otherwise, we’re looking at the same options as last season: Kevin Fiala is a point-per-game playmaker, Adrian Kempe is a sneaky banger league player providing goals and hits, and Anze Kopitar is as consistent as ever, and he will likely finish the season with around 60 points. Byfield and Kaliyev are sleeper picks only in the deepest of leagues, and you can wait to pick them off waivers when they start showing more offense.

The Kings just can’t keep counting on the same guys again and again and hope for a different result. While Fiala, Dubois, Kopitar and Kempe represent fine fantasy options, none of them are elite, with Fiala just barely making the cut at No. 43. Phillip Danault gets pushed down the depth chart by Dubois, and it’s doubtful Danault will post his third consecutive 50-point season without ample playing time on the power play, where he managed to register a career-high 17 assists last season. Trevor Moore barely makes the cut at No. 233, and we’re looking at a player who likely tops out at around 15 goals and 40-something points.

The back end is a little more interesting with Clarke, who possesses immense upside, but he’s not a threat to dethrone Doughty from the top power play just yet. Clarke will have to prove he can be trusted at even strength before the Kings even entertain the idea of him quarterbacking the top unit.

Projected Lineup

Quinton Byfield – Anze Kopitar – Adrian Kempe
Kevin Fiala – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Arthur Kaliyev
Trevor Moore – Phillip Danault – Viktor Arvidsson
Carl Grundström – Blake Lizotte – Jaret Anderson-Dolan

Mikey Anderson – Drew Doughty
Vladislav Gavrikov – Matt Roy
Tobias Björnfot – Brandt Clarke

Cam Talbot – Pheonix Copley

PP1
Fiala – Kopitar – Kempe – Dubois – Doughty
PP2
Byfield – Danault – Arvidsson – Kaliyev – Clarke

Player Rankings

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Kevin Fiala, 75 points
Pierre-Luc Dubois, 63 points
Anze Kopitar, 62 points

(The NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 is free if you subscribe today! Click the image below and click 'Add to Cart')

Top 300 Ranked Kings (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
43. Kevin Fiala, LW
58. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C
66. Anze Kopitar, C
86. Adrian Kempe, C
153. Viktor Arvidsson, LW
212. Phillip Danault, C
218. Drew Doughty, D
233. Trevor Moore, LW
245. Cam Talbot, G
283. Quinton Byfield, C

Top 300 Ranked Kings (Banger League) (Full List):
44. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C
49. Kevin Fiala, LW
63. Anze Kopitar, C
68. Adrian Kempe, C
154. Drew Doughty, D
173. Phillip Danault, C
180. Viktor Arvidsson, LW
271. Trevor Moore, LW

All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.

Breakout Star

C’mon, Quinton Byfield, it’s your time! Byfield made major strides last season and it was a great sign the Kings trusted him to play on the top line. This wasn’t Kopitar and Kempe dragging him around, either; Byfield’s play at both ends was strong, but his offense just hasn’t come around yet. Given the depth at center, Byfield can play higher in the lineup as a winger, and that’s where he’ll likely stay.

Despite the top-line assignment, Byfield averaged just 14:04 TOI/GP with Todd McLellan’s line juggling and matchups. He also rarely shot the puck, and through 99 career games is averaging barely over a shot per game. If Byfield gets a little more playing time, becomes more aggressive in generating offensive chances and gets a little more time on the power play, we could see a 40-point, breakout season. Sprinkle in around a hit per game and Byfield also becomes quite intriguing in banger leagues.

Regression Candidate

As I hinted above, the acquisition of Dubois really hurts Phillip Danault’s fantasy value. As a second-line center with plenty of power-play minutes (160-plus total minutes both seasons in L.A.), Danault was a surprisingly effective fantasy player with back-to-back 50-point seasons. He showed some offense with the Habs, but he was viewed as a two-way center who could save Kopitar from being matched up against the opposition’s best lines.

With Dubois, Danault likely gets pushed down to the No. 3 slot. It wouldn’t make sense to move either to the wing, though McLellan may stack them on the same line in certain situations. It’s safe to leave Danault off your draft lists considering the lack of offensive upside and opportunity, and unless your league counts faceoffs, that leaves Danault with very minimal fantasy value.

Goalies

It was interesting the Kings opted to let Joonas Korpisalo walk and replace him with a lesser goalie in Cam Talbot. They’re also keeping around Pheonix Copley, who caught lightning in a bottle last season and doesn’t profile as a starting goalie, and signed David Rittich, who was ironically replaced by Talbot in Calgary and couldn’t hack it as a backup in Toronto, Nashville or Winnipeg. I mean, do Talbot, Copley or Rittich really stand a better chance against Connor McDavid than Korpisalo?! Don’t think so! Goaltending in the NHL is truly just a carousel.

Talbot, Copley and Rittich combined to win 50 games last season even though none of them had a SP higher than .903. It doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and it’s hard to see the Kings improve defensively this season, especially on the penalty kill where goaltending is the most important factor. Quantity doesn’t replace quality, and the Kings seem to think they can fool everyone. Either that, or they’re just biding their time to acquire another goalie – who’s available? – but that just further drives down the fantasy value of their current goalies.

Talbot – as the presumptive starter – is worth drafting simply because the Kings are expected to be good, but the wins will come at the cost of a good save percentage and GAA. Unless fantasy managers are desperate for goaltending, it’s better to leave Talbot and Copley off your draft list completely and stream them only when necessary.