The new-look Predators offer the same two elite options: Roman Josi and Juuse Saros. But there's more, right?
Outlook
Last season:
42-32-8, 5th Central, 18th overall.
2.72 GF/GP (28th), 2.88 GA/GP (12th), 17.6 PP% (27th), 82.6 PK% (6th)
47.41 5v5 CF% (24th), 48.83 5v5 GF% (21st), 47.31 5v5 xGF% (24th)
In Barry Trotz we trust, right? The Predators missed out on the final wild card spot by three points, but to their credit, they realized that they were going nowhere fast. It was time for a change and, boy, did the Preds mean it.
Coinciding with David Poile’s retirement after 26 seasons with the club, the Preds excised the big, hindering contracts from their roster, buying out Matt Duchene and trading Ryan Johansen to the Avs. They brought in a new coach in Andrew Brunette, and promised to play a more up-tempo, offensive style that is very much in vogue. Gone are the days where the Preds grit-and-grind their way to wins – ironically, it was Trotz who taught them how to do this.
However, as of yet, we’ve yet to really understand how the Preds will do this. They spent big over the summer, signing Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn; while both are respected veterans, neither are considered fleet of foot. Their supposed up-tempo offense will be counting on – checks notes – zero 20 goal-scorers from last season. Of course, we’re being a little facetious not counting Filip Forsberg, a perennial 30-goal threat, and Roman Josi, but the point about the lack of offensive firepower stands.
At this juncture, the Preds will be counting on: Luke Evangelista, who had a promising start to his career with 15 points in 24 games last season but not considered a top-line talent; Tommy Novak, a late bloomer who leaned on a very high 18.3 shooting percentage; Cody Glass, who has yet to reach his potential six years after being drafted sixth overall; Kiefer Sherwood, a prolific scorer in the AHL who is unproven at the NHL level; and Phil Tomasino, who’s scored 16 goals in 107 career NHL games and entering just his third pro season.
All this to say that the Preds offense basically lives and dies with Josi, who is the top-ranked fantasy player for the Preds and the fourth-ranked defenseman overall behind Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin and Erik Karlsson. Josi is an elite high-volume shooter who rivals even the league’s best forwards, but a little more caution must be exercised due to his age (33) and a decline in assists due to the lack of offensive elite forwards to pass to.
Josi’s decline from 26 power-play assists and 96 points in 2021-22, when nearly all Preds forwards overachieved, to 16 power-play assists and 72-point pace last season was not entirely unexpected. If fantasy managers wish to pass on Josi for Dougie Hamilton or even Miro Heiskanen, they’d be justified in doing so.
Projected Lineup
Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist
Kiefer Sherwood – Thomas Novak – Luke Evangelista
Juuso Parssinen – Cody Glass – Phil Tomasino
Yakov Trenin – Colton Sissons – Cole Smith
Roman Josi – Luke Schenn
Ryan McDonagh – Dante Fabbro
Jérémy Lauzon – Tyson Barrie
Juuse Saros – Kevin Lankinen
PP1
Forsberg – O’Reilly – Evangelista – Novak – Josi
PP2
Parssinen – Glass – Tomasino – Nyquist – Barrie
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Roman Josi, 70 points
Filip Forsberg, 70 points
Ryan O’Reilly, 56 points
(The NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 is free if you subscribe today! Click the image below and click 'Add to Cart')
Top 300 Ranked Predators (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
30. Juuse Saros, G
50. Roman Josi, D
75. Filip Forsberg, LW
147. Thomas Novak, C
205. Ryan O’Reilly, C
230. Luke Evangelista, RW
258. Gustav Nyquist, LW
292. Tyson Barrie, D
Top 300 Ranked Predators (Banger League) (Full List):
26. Roman Josi, D
55. Juuse Saros, G
73. Filip Forsberg, LW
194. Thomas Novak, C
264. Ryan O’Reilly, C
277. Luke Schenn, D
282. Tyson Barrie, D
294. Gustav Nyquist, LW
296. Luke Evangelista, RW
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
There’s some intrigue with the Preds roster, but Luke Evangelista seems the player best positioned for a breakout. He’s slated to play top-six minutes and showed very good chemistry with Novak, who is ranked higher but possesses more downside due to uncertain playing time.
Given the Preds’ lack of offensive depth, there’s a chance Evangelista moves up to play with Forsberg, and that would be an even bigger boon for his offense. Evangelista is ranked outside the top 200 in the fantasy rankings, but there’s definitely room to move up. He scored at a 51-point pace last season and even accounting for a slight regression in shooting percentage, his shot rate (over two per game) and playing time (16:34 TOI/GP last season) should help keep him within range of 50 points. Note, however, that Evangelista is a streaky scorer, and he’ll likely be picked up and dropped several times on the waiver wire this season.
Regression Candidate
It’s probably Tommy Novak, the 26-year-old late bloomer who plied his craft for four years at the University of Minnesota and spent three seasons in the AHL. He’s been able to score everywhere, but his 18.3 shooting percentage skews high. He doesn’t shoot the puck a lot and his ice time isn’t guaranteed, making last season’s 69-point pace very difficult to maintain. Novak will be fighting against Glass and Juuso Parssinen for top-six minutes behind O’Reilly.
Goalies
This is where the Preds have zero question marks. Juuse Saros is a Vezina candidate every year, and if the Preds did a better job of providing goal support, Saros would surely have more wins. He’s easily a top-10 fantasy goalie currently, but a top-five goalie on a better team.
Saros is also a workhorse, having led the league in games played over the past two seasons and also led the league in saves, shots against and minutes played last season. He’s never finished a season below .618 in Quality Start % since taking over for Pekka Rinne, according to hockey-reference.com, with the league average around .530. It means Saros is dependable every night regardless of matchup.
The addition of O’Reilly and Schenn will help defensively, but it’s basically a wash if the Preds are committed to playing a more aggressive offensive style. In leagues that count saves, save percentage and goals against, Saros is an excellent starter to anchor your goalies.