Not since the 'Pizza Line' have the Ottawa Senators offered such tasty fantasy options.
Outlook
Last season:
39-35-8, 6th Atlantic, 21st overall.
3.16 GF/GP (18th), 3.29 GA/GP (20th), 23.5 PP% (8th), 80.1 PK% (14th)
51.53 5v5 CF% (12th), 46.04 5v5 GF% (25th), 51.55 5v5 xGF% (15th)
The Senators will be a popular pick to make the playoffs and a big reason for that is their embarrassment of riches. This is a roster that looks excellent on paper with elite talent at nearly every position, starting with Brady Tkachuk, who’s a unicorn in banger leagues due to his point-per-game, 200-plus shots and 300-plus hits potential, and a franchise center in Tim Stützle. Anything short of a playoff berth – their first in seven seasons – would be hugely disappointing.
Adding Vladimir Tarasenko was a huge bonus, and it didn’t come with a crippling financial commitment. The Sens are going to score their way out of trouble in 2023-24, and they will surely improve their 18th-ranked goals for per game. In fact, by possession and expected goals metrics, the Sens should’ve won 40-something games, but poor goaltending – they used seven goalies last season, a league high – ultimately sank their season. If you’re constantly fishing pucks out of your own net, you’re not scoring as much as you should be.
A full season of Josh Norris, limited to just eight games last season due a season-ending shoulder injury, and Jakob Chychrun, acquired mid-season from the Coyotes, gives the Sens one of the deepest lineups in the league. Not included in the projected lineup below are center Ridly Greig and defensemen Jacob Bernard-Docker and Tyler Kleven, all of whom could knock a veteran off the squad.
Not since the days of the ‘Pizza Line’ do the Sens offer such an abundance of quality fantasy options. The Tkachuk- Stützle-Giroux line was one of the league’s best with all three players scoring at least 30 goals, and that line should stay intact. Norris and Shane Pinto offer high-end quality in the second and third slots at center with 70-point and 50-point upside, respectively, and Dominik Kubalik, Drake Batherson and Tarasenko each have 20-25-goal potential at the lower end. Do the simple math and that’s well over 200 goals from the top nine alone.
The back end is a little tricky because they have three excellent first-pairing defensemen in Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun and Jake Sanderson. Unless the Sens run two defensemen on their second power play unit, one of them is going to get the short end of the stick. Sanderson was logging close to 30 minutes per night with ample power play in the final games of the season, and there’s no chance he gets anywhere close to that with Chabot and Chycrun in the lineup.
With Chabot as the incumbent QB and Chychrun having already proved he’s a top-notch shooter, that means Sanderson’s likely the odd-man out. This hurts Sanderson’s fantasy value even though he’s the most well-rounded of the bunch, and it’s more likely Sanderson and Artem Zub are utilized as the matchup pair against the opposition’s top line. Chabot is also usually on the ice when Stützle’s line is out, which means Chabot (and Chychrun, if they’re paired together) reaps the most benefit from the Sens’ awesome top line.
Projected Lineup
Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux
Dominik Kubalik – Josh Norris – Vladimir Tarasenko
Mathieu Joseph – Shane Pinto – Drake Batherson
Parker Kelly – Mark Kastelic – Zack MacEwen
Thomas Chabot – Jakob Chychrun
Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Erik Brannstrom – Travis Hamonic
Joonas Korpisalo – Anton Forsberg
PP1
Tkachuk – Stützle – Giroux – Norris – Chabot
PP2
Kubalik – Pinto – Batherson – Tarasenko – Chychrun
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Tim Stützle, 94 points
Brady Tkachuk, 82 points
Claude Giroux, 64 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Senators (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
14. Tim Stützle, C
28. Brady Tkachuk, LW
65. Claude Giroux, C
90. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW
107. Drake Batherson, RW
133. Joonas Korpisalo, G
156. Josh Norris, C
202. Thomas Chabot, D
208. Dominik Kubalik, LW
214. Jakob Chychrun, D
254. Shane Pinto, C
294. Jake Sanderson, D
Top 300 Ranked Senators (Banger League) (Full List):
10. Brady Tkachuk, LW
14. Tim Stützle, C
72. Claude Giroux, C
97. Drake Batherson, RW
100. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW
134. Josh Norris, C
142. Jakob Chychrun, D
146. Thomas Chabot, D
203. Dominik Kubalik, LW
219. Joonas Korpisalo, G
254. Jake Sanderson, D
278. Shane Pinto, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
Not really a breakout, but how about a bounce-back season from Josh Norris? His season lasted just eight games, and it was the second straight season the Sens lost a key center to a season-ending shoulder injury after Pinto lasted just five games in the season before. Hopefully, the injury juju is gone.
Norris played with Giroux prior to his injury and the Sens may go back to that combo, but whether it’s Giroux, Batherson, Tarasenko or otherwise, Norris is assured of quality wingers to play with. He scored at an impressive 43-goal rate in 2021-22, and that won’t happen with a normalized shooting percentage. Still, at around 2.5 shots per game and a 15.0 shooting percentage, it would still put Norris on pace for a 30 goals. He’s ranked 156th in the player rankings but he could easily move up into the top 100 and outscore both Batherson and Tarasenko.
Regression Candidate
The regression won’t be significant, if there even is one at all, but Claude Giroux’s 35 goals was his highest total in five seasons. Playing with Stützle and Tkachuk certainly helps, but entering his age-36 season, the smart money’s on Giroux to decline a little bit. Make no mistake, he’s still a top-tier fantasy player, especially with a top-10 power play to boost his numbers, but I think he ends up closer to 65-70 points than a point per game.
Goalies
This is unquestionably the Sens’ biggest weakness. Joonas Korpisalo gave his fantasy value a major boost signing with a team that can bail him out of trouble with their offense. He’ll be paired with Anton Forsberg again – they won the Calder Cup in the AHL together in 2016 with Korpisalo as the backup – who declared himself 100 percent after injuring his MCL in both knees last season.
Korpisalo has shown flashes of excellence, though he’s never been able to maintain it. He had numerous chances to take over the crease with the Jackets, but following an impressive .941/1.90 showing in the 2020 bubble playoffs, went 9-13-7/.894/3.30 the following season. Korpisalo was just recently dismantled by an elite Oilers offense in the playoffs.
Note the Sens ranked 15th high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, according to naturalstattrick.com. The Jackets were third-last, and limiting those high-quality chances should help Korpisalo post better stats. It’s reasonable to expect Korpisalo to post something slightly better than Cam Talbot’s 17-14-2/.898/2.93 line, based on individual ability and the Sens’ improved and healthy roster.
This is uncharted territory for Korpisalo, who’s never been handed the No. 1 job like this, and that’s the big risk in fantasy. The upside is 30 wins for Korpisalo, but he’s also bound to go through rough patches and I don’t see a timeshare with Forsberg. Korpisalo should be just fine as your No. 2 goalie and provide good value in the late rounds.