The Kraken turned the corner in Season 2. Can Matty Beniers keep pushing them to new heights in Season 3?
Outlook
Last season:
46-28-8, 4th Pacific, 12th overall. Eliminated Round 2 by Dallas, 4-3.
3.52 GF/GP (4th), 3.07 GA/GP (15th), 19.8 PP% (21st), 76.7 PK% (21st)
52.75 5v5 CF% (5th), 56.64 5v5 GF% (2nd), 51.72 5v5 xGF% (12th)
It’s a testament to the Kraken’s balanced lineup that they can rank fourth in goals for per game but not have a single player finish top-50 in scoring. Even now, knocking off the defending champions in Round 1 and pushing the Stars to seven games in Round 2 feels incredulous for a team that looks so modest on paper.
While their inaugural season ended with a disappointing 30th-place finish, to their credit, the Kraken stayed the course and were confident that the team they had assembled didn’t need any major changes. Perhaps the rise to 12th wasn’t unexpected for an analytically-steeped front office; the Kraken finished closer to mid-table in most possession and expected goal metrics, and even a small reversion to the mean would’ve seen their record improve.
Their second season proved the Kraken are on a major upswing. Getting Shane Wright was a major coup at the draft, but so was drafting Matty Beniers, the type of No. 1 center that had taken the Knights years to find, and Beniers’ offense continues to exceed expectations. It addressed their biggest need and allows them to utilize a deep stable of wingers to their full potential. It’s such a well-rounded group that it may not matter that Jared McCann faces a massive regression, because Oliver Bjorkstrand or Kailer Yamamoto might see their shooting percentages improve.
The lack of a superstar means the Kraken won’t offer any elite fantasy options – except Beniers, who’s ranked 41st in the top 200 dynasty league rankings – with six players clustered between 100 and 200 in the fantasy rankings. I may be in the minority, but I think Beniers can push 80 points this season, which would make him the standout player and the one to really target. Beniers just keeps pushing his ceiling higher every season.
It’s hard to go wrong with any of the other Kraken, but just note the individual upside of each player is roughly 60 points. It’s just hard to beat the Kraken because they have potentially nine such players.
The only glaring weakness on their team is goaltending, but they were able to make it to the second round of the playoffs in spite of that. The defense has been bolstered with veteran Brian Dumoulin, and Adam Larsson - a real banger league asset - is one of the more underrated shutdown defensemen in the league. We make jokes, but at the end of the day, swapping Larsson for former first overall pick Taylor Hall one-for-one isn’t as lopsided as we think as far as their on-ice impact.
Projected Lineup
Jared McCann – Matty Beniers – Jordan Eberle
Eeli Tolvanen – Yanni Gourde – Oliver Bjorkstrand
Jaden Schwartz – Alex Wennberg – André Burakovsky
Brandon Tanev – Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – Kailer Yamamoto
Vince Dunn – Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak – Will Borgen
Brian Dumoulin – Justin Schultz
Philipp Grubauer – Chris Driedger
PP1
McCann – Beniers – Eberle – Burakovsky – Dunn
PP2
Schwartz – Wennberg – Tolvanen – Bjorkstrand – Schultz
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Matty Beniers, 77 points
Jared McCann, 62 points
Vince Dunn, 53 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Kraken (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
103. Matty Beniers, C
127. Jared McCann, LW
139. Jordan Eberle, RW
158. Vince Dunn, D
176. André Burakovsky, LW
178. Philipp Grubauer, G
182. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW
220. Yanni Gourde, C
299. Eeli Tolvanen, RW
Top 300 Ranked Kraken (Banger League) (Full List):
103. Matty Beniers, C
114. Vince Dunn, D
158. Jordan Eberle, RW
174. Yanni Gourde, C
176. Jared McCann, LW
183. Adam Larsson, D
188. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW
209. André Burakovsky, LW
272. Brandon Tanev, LW
275. Philipp Grubauer, G
295. Eeli Tolvanen, RW
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
The answer is likely not Shane Wright, who will likely play limited minutes in the bottom six even if he makes the team. The depth is just too good, and the Kraken are in win-now mode. They’ll be patient with Wright and he figures to be a key part of their future – they just don’t need him to be good right now.
That means the breakout star should be Eeli Tolvanen, who scored 16 goals in 48 games after being plucked off waivers and slated to play on a scoring line with Yanni Gourde and Bjorkstrand. Tolvanen was a highly-touted prospect who took a little longer to develop and had trouble cracking the Predators’ roster. It could be argued that he was never quite given the chance, and like the ‘Misfits’ in Vegas, the expansion teams have become a haven for the discarded players.
For someone who’s adept at scoring goals, you’d like to see Tolvanen fire the puck more often. He has 30-goal potential, but given how many mouths there are to feed, he may not get the requisite ice time. His shooting percentage also skewed high at 16.5 percent last season and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it shift a little lower. These two factors makes Tolvanen a sleeper pick only in deeper leagues given the uncertainty behind his usage and effectiveness, but I don’t doubt he’ll be a popular pickup at some point this season.
Regression Candidate
No question, it’s Jared McCann, though he still has the chops to be a 30-goal scorer. He’s not even the best winger on his team, but if he can stay on the top line with Beniers and Jordan Eberle, it certainly bodes well. McCann scored 40 goals on a sky-high 19.0 shooting percentage and played just 16:20 per game; among the 19 players who scored 40 goals, McCann ranks last in ice time, shots on goal and power-play goals, and also second-last in assists.
He's the obvious player not to reach for in any draft, but should McCann fall to the middle rounds, that’s an appropriate time to take him.
Goalies
The Kraken really don’t have much choice but to stick with Philipp Grubauer. He’s the 25th-ranked goalie on my list, and that alone tells you how unreliable he is on a team that finished 12th overall. He sports a .891 SP over the past two seasons, the lowest mark among the 50 goalies who’ve played at least 50 games. His second season was a slight improvement, but the bar wasn’t high. The Kraken are unfortunately locked into Grubauer at least until 2026-27 unless they can dump his contract or find a cheaper, better solution. From a fantasy perspective, Grubauer is a streaming option only for wins, and the quantity of his starts isn’t enough to justify the poor quality.
The backup situation is more interesting. Chris Driedger will get first look after missing nearly all of 2022-23 season due to an ACL injury. He was waived and unclaimed and played 14 not-so-noteworthy games in the AHL, but the Kraken might have to give him the spot to justify the price tag. Driedger had earned a $10.5-million contract thanks to two solid seasons as the backup in Florida, and there are many who will quickly point out that it was a severe overpayment at the time of signing for a goalie with little pedigree who experienced an unsustainably hot run. So far, those critics have proven right.
In contention for the backup job will be Joey Daccord, a highly-regarded journeyman goalie who backstopped Coachella Valley to the Calder Cup final. He had a brilliant playoff run, going 15-11 with a .926 SP and 2.22 GAA. Neither Daccord nor Driedger are fantasy-relevant, but if Grubauer was to be benched, Daccord is the most likely successor. Just keep his name in mind.