The Blues are looking to bounce back after a disappointing season. With Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas driving the bus, can do they do it?
The Blues are looking to bounce back after a disappointing season. With Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas driving the bus, can do they do it?
Outlook
Last season:
37-38-6, 6th Central, 23rd overall.
3.17 GF/GP (17th), 3.63 GA/GP (27th), 19.3 PP% (22nd), 72.4 PK% (30th)
45.87 5v5 CF% (27th), 48.91 5v5 GF% (20th), 44.68 5v5 xGF% (27th)
In short, the Blues still have to figure out a lot of things. Chief among them is how to build around Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, because everything trickles down from there. Both players took on bigger roles last season and their identical eight-year, $65-million contracts kick in this season. Colton Parayko and Brayden Schenn are the only other Blues signed beyond the 2026-27 season.
Kyrou and Thomas made improvements – Kyrou became an elite high-volume shooter and Thomas was far more reliable in the dot – but the Blues’ season was mostly a disaster. They were rarely all on the same page. The efforts were inconsistent. The defense was loose. Jordan Binnington seemed more interested in settling personal beef than stopping pucks.
I expect a little more of the same going in 2023-24 as the only real change is the addition of Kevin Hayes, which bolsters their thin depth at center. The Blues are clearly counting on everyone to improve, or at least bounce back, but what’s the ceiling? They’re not going to have an elite power play, their penalty kill will be dependent on Binnington and they don’t have any players who are really exceptional at driving play. This is still a borderline playoff team without an elite player, and it shows in the fantasy rankings with no players ranked inside the top 50.
The rankings are even more jumbled in the banger league version, with Thomas dropping below Schenn due to less category coverage, Jakub Vrana dropping out and Colton Parayko and Sammy Blais making the banger league list from hits and blocked shots. Where the Blues get taken in fantasy drafts will depend largely on your league settings. In most cases, you’ll end up picking them because they’re the best player available, and not because they were your draft targets.
There’s not a lot to get excited about, though the two that will have really good value in the middle rounds is Pavel Buchnevich, who has played at a point-per-game pace for two straight seasons now, and Justin Faulk, who offers multiple-category coverage in banger leagues.
Projected Lineup
Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
Jakub Vrana – Brayden Schenn – Kasperi Kapanen
Brandon Saad – Kevin Hayes – Sammy Blais
Jake Neighbours – Nikita Alexandrov – Alexey Toropchenko
Nick Leddy – Colton Parayko
Torey Krug – Justin Faulk
Calle Rosen – Robert Bortuzzo
Jordan Binnington – Joel Hofer
PP1
Buchnevich – Thomas – Kyrou – Schenn – Faulk
PP2
Vrana – Hayes – Kapanen – Saad – Krug
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Jordan Kyrou, 81 points
Pavel Buchnevich, 73 points
Robert Thomas, 69 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Blues (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
54. Jordan Kyrou, RW
84. Pavel Buchnevich, LW
98. Robert Thomas, C
117. Brayden Schenn, C
155. Jordan Binnington, G
206. Kevin Hayes, C
229. Justin Faulk, D
266. Jakub Vrana, LW
Top 300 Ranked Blues (Banger League) (Full List):
79. Jordan Kyrou, RW
94. Pavel Buchnevich, LW
95. Brayden Schenn, C
122. Robert Thomas, C
141. Justin Faulk, D
234. Kevin Hayes, C
249. Jordan Binnington, G
288. Colton Parayko, D
300. Sammy Blais, LW
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
In terms of raw upside, Jake Neighbours fits the bill. The 26th overall pick in 2020, Neighbours scored 10 points in 43 games last season and will play a middle-six role behind Buchnevich and Brandon Saad on the left wing. There’s definitely second-line upside in the long term for Neighbours, who was a standout player in the WHL and scored 16 points in 23 games with AHL Springfield last season. Listed at six-foot, he plays at a hefty 201 pounds, and traditionally, the Blues have preferred heavier, physical players.
I can see Neighbours having some Jake Debrusk-lite upside this season, but overall, he’s not far enough in his development to be considered a sleeper pick. If he can score 15 goals this season, maybe next season is the better time to target him, and hopefully the Blues will have enough sense to drop Saad lower in the depth chart by then.
If you want to gamble big, pick Jakub Vrana. According to moneypuck.com, at 1.81 goals per 60 minutes, Vrana ranks eighth (!) in the league (min. 350 TOI) among forwards, sandwiching him between Mikko Rantanen (1.81) and Leon Draisaitl (1.79). Obviously, Vrana is not an elite player, but it’s a hint that increased ice time and staying on the ice could see him score to 30 goals. It’s just a big if for someone who’s played a combined 101 games over the past three seasons.
Kasperi Kapanen is another one, and maybe he’s finally figured it out. He’s scored 30 points for four straight seasons now, and you wonder if there’s a little capacity for more. He’s physical and he can create changes, but just not consistently enough. Like I said, the Blues are crossing their fingers a lot this season.
Regression Candidate
The Blues are dreaming if they thought they acquired a 50-point player for literally half the price. Kevin Hayes is slotted as the No. 3 center behind Thomas and Schenn, and while there’s a chance for the Blues to stack lines and move Hayes up the lineup, he’s scored 20 goals just twice in his career.
Hayes scored one goal in eight games in October, one goal in 13 games in December and three goals over the final 31 games of the season. He was averaging 16 minutes per game by the end of it all, having been in John Tortorella’s doghouse, and you wonder how much patience Craig Berube will have, too. Even at 6-foot-5, Hayes isn’t the player you’d think he’d be in banger leagues.
Goalies
This is the Blues’ biggest question, and no one would blame you if you think Joel Hofer will take over as their starting goalie by the end of the season. We’ve seen this story too many times where a struggling veteran gets usurped by a rookie. Jordan Binnington’s career started off red-hot, to the point where he was once considered Canada’s top goalie, but now his name is more synonymous with goalie fights than stopping pucks.
The upside to Binnington in fantasy is that he figures to get the lion’s share of the starts. He started 60 games last season, one of seven goalies to reach that milestone, and unless Hofer impresses quickly and early, the expectation is that Binnington will have a very similar workload. This is definitely more about quantity than quality, and if you draft Binnington, odds are you’ll find yourself benching him. He’s the 23rd-ranked goalie in version 1.0 of the top 300 fantasy rankings.