Put aside the playoff woes for a minute. The Leafs are still dominant in fantasy hockey.
Outlook
Last season:
50-21-11, 2nd Atlantic, 4th Overall. Eliminated Round 2 by Florida, 4-1.
3.39 GF/GP (9th), 2.68 GA/GP (7th), 26.0 PP% (2nd), 81.9 PK% (12th)
51.07 5v5 CF% (16th), 56.44 5v5 GF% (3rd), 53.45 5v5 xGF% (7th)
The Leafs made a decision long ago to spend big on big talent. Since signing John Tavares in 2018 to an $11-million cap hit, which is currently tied for the seventh-highest in the league, the Leafs rank fifth with 221 wins. They’re a regular-season juggernaut, but the playoffs… if we were to live inside the Leafs fanbase like Inside Out, there would be no Joy and only varying amounts of Fear, Anger, Disgust and Sadness.
That being said, the Leafs enter the regular season in good shape once again. They’ve got arguably the best collection of talent at the top of the lineup in the league. That’s great for fantasy because it means there’s a ton of options. They’ve got an elite goal scorer in Auston Matthews, elite point producers in Mitch Marner and possibly William Nylander, and one of the most dependable fantasy players in John Tavares. All four players are top-50 fantasy players, and you could select each of the them in the first four rounds and end up with an excellent team. Put aside the playoff disappointments; the regular season matters most in fantasy.
The rest of the forward corps is intriguing. Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi will add some jam and depth scoring, making them erstwhile mid-round picks. Depending on where Bertuzzi plays in the lineup – he’s slotted in Michael Bunting’s spot in the projected lineup but that’s not set in stone – the range of outcomes is pretty wide, ranging from 40 points at the lower end to 60-something at the higher end.
Domi’s in a similar situation, but he’ll likely player lower in the lineup and he won’t be averaging 18 minutes per game to maintain last season’s 60-point pace. If you’re gambling, Matthew Knies feels like the best value bet and he has considerable upside if he ends up on the top two lines. I have him with Tavares and Nylander to begin with, based on the strength of their playoff showing.
The bottom six is a mixed bag and we shall see how much of an impact Ryan Reaves will really have, but from a fantasy standpoint, it’s not a huge concern unless they get cratered every night, which would put more strain on the Leafs’ top six.
On defense, the addition of John Klingberg might threaten Morgan Rielly’s role on the top PP, but ‘might’ has to be emphasized here. While there was a time Klingberg was considered a premier PP QB, his overall lackluster play puts him in the doghouse, and power-play ice time isn’t just going to be handed to him. That’s not mentioning Conor Timmins is still lurking and could push Klingberg out of the rotation.
Projected Lineup
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies – John Tavares – William Nylander
Max Domi – David Kampf – Sam Lafferty
Calle Järnkrok – Pontus Holmberg – Ryan Reaves
Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Jake McCabe – John Klingberg
Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren
Ilya Samsonov – Joseph Woll
PP1
Tavares – Matthews – Marner – Nylander – Rielly
PP2
Knies – Domi – Bertuzzi – Järnkrok – Klingberg
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Mitch Marner, 105 points
Auston Matthews, 93 points
William Nylander, 83 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Maple Leafs (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
7. Auston Matthews, C
13. Mitch Marner, RW
27. William Nylander, RW
51. John Tavares, C
53. Ilya Samsonov, G
144. Morgan Rielly, D
196. Tyler Bertuzzi, LW
227. Max Domi, C
236. Matthew Knies, LW
270. John Klingberg, D
Top 300 Ranked Maple Leafs (Banger League) (Full List):
6. Auston Matthews, C
16. Mitch Marner, RW
27. William Nylander, RW
47. John Tavares, C
102. Ilya Samsonov, G
119. Morgan Rielly, D
189. Matthew Knies, LW
197. Tyler Bertuzzi, LW
248. Max Domi, C
262. John Klingberg, D
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
It’s easily Matthew Knies, who showcased exceptional playmaking ability. The signing of Bertuzzi and Domi, both of whom can play left wing, pushes Knies down the depth chart, but, ultimately, Sheldon Keefe’s lines will come down to chemistry and fit.
Bertuzzi and Domi can move around the lineup with greater ease, and given their positional flexibility, playing style and experience, it would make sense for Knies to play with similar, offense-minded players, at least to begin his career. One of the potential spots for Knies is with Tavares and Nylander, and the trio worked well in the playoffs. The Leafs roster has a lot of moving parts on the left wing, and it would not be surprising if Knies’ fantasy value hits multiple peaks and valleys throughout the season depending on his usage.
Regression Candidate
Without a top-six role, it’s going to be very hard for Calle Järnkrok to score 20 goals again. His shooting percentage will surely regress and there’s additional competition for playing time. Of the 39 points he scored last season, at least one of Tavares, Matthews or Marner scored a point in 27 of those scoring plays.
In the playoffs, Järnkrok spent a lot of his even-strength minutes with Matthews and Marner, and that spot is currently taken by Bertuzzi. Knies might get first crack with Tavares and Nylander, which pushes Järnkrok further down the depth chart. (It’s also worth noting the Leafs have an overabundance of right-hand shots). Järnkrok's a useful player who can play both wing positions, and defensively he’s not a black hole, so Keefe may elect to use him in fewer offensive situations than before.
Goalies
Placing Matt Murray on LTIR means it’s Ilya Samsonov’s net and he’s expected to be the workhorse. Samsonov had a very good season and the biggest question that remains is his durability and consistency. It’s a dice roll with the unknown, not unlike last season when the Leafs gambled with a Samsonov-Murray tandem. Samsonov has never played more than 44 games in a season, and it’s shaping up to be a season where he could potentially see 60 starts.
That’s great for his fantasy value, though I would remain cautious of a mid-season lull or a late-season fade, simply because we haven’t seen Samsonov be tested in a situation like this. Even if those periods of poor play come, stick with Samsonov. Given the lack of quality, workhorse starters in today’s game, I’d still venture and say Samsonov has a good chance to be a top-10 fantasy goalie by the end of the season.
It wouldn’t be a Canadian market without some sort of goalie controversy. Joseph Woll was exceptional in seven games last season (6-1-0, .932 SP, 2.16 GAA) though it’s easy to get carried away despite a small sample size. With just 11 career games of NHL experience under his belt, Woll would be one of the biggest surprises of the season if he somehow supplants Samsonov as the starter.